An MMR system won't work because of hatch
I was looking forward to the MMR system because currently bad survivors can win without even playing well. But the more I think about it, the less enthusiastic I am because I know it's gonna be the same old DBD. Gen rush will still exist and so will hatch. So really good killers will lose MMR while average survivors rise to the top with ease. All it takes is a hatch eacape to secure your win, and it spawns no matter what. Even with 0 gens done, it spawns to give the last survivor a pity escape, which they abuse and rub it in the killer's face as they claim it was skillful. And keys will still exist, which is a literal short cut since gens can be left and you still escape. All 4 survivors can escape through it btw, as long as you do those quick 5 gens. Keys are uncounterable. Unless you get lucky and down the key holder or hardcore slug, they're gonna use it and get their free escape. Closing the hatch also does not save you, even when nobody brought a key, because that for some reason powers the exits. Exits which, if far enough apart, give the survivor yet another chance to escape. Hatch grabbing was also removed since, according to to eye witnesses, killers abused this to hold the game hostage every single game. /s
Now that endgame collapse is a thing, hatch is no longer needed. As soon as there's 1 survivor left egc should start and maybe power the gates. Hatch and keys suck and reward immersed gen rushers, and also whoever happens to be the last survivor. They will surely skew the results of the mmr system, and it will be all for nothing.
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It all depends how they calculate +/- MMR. I mean you could get merciless killer with a 3k before...
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Well I think it depends on what the MMR will consider a win. Winning isn't black and white secure the 4K or escape. I assume MMR will try to predict the outcome like "Killer should get at least X hook events this match. If he gets more, he did above expectations and his MMR goes up" etc.
I hope it's hook events as just kills would make facecamping everyone to death an easy way to rank up. Personally when I play killer I've had matches where nobody died, I got 8 hooks (So everybody was hooked twice) and I still felt satisfied and that I did my job.
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Let's be honest MMR is just gonna be based on the same flawed foundations as the emblems. Oh you used your power too well and got a down? Bad killer, -MMR.
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Not just because of the hatch. An MMR in a game based so heavily on RNG can't work, period. Scott explains why very well:
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It's technically possible, but it's more common to get Ruthless with a 4k.
Also common: Ruthless with 3k and one DC.
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Here's the problem with his argument.
Humans have a way of doing the impossible.
Flight was impossible. The Lightbulb was impossible. The television was impossible.
If calculating all of the things and probabilities in a match is impossible, then the coder doesn't have to worry about all of the variables. Only the most important ones.
Another telling point is that the announcement mentioned that the algorithm predicted the outcomes accurately. If this is the case, then they have indeed achieved the impossible.
We'll see how it all plays out by the end of the year.
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Considering this is also the same team that said they were, "Fine with how Billy was performing", I'd take any claim they make with a dozen bags of salt.
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This is BHVR we're talking about. Not Nikola Tesla.
The same company that:
- Left the door wide open for hackers in their DC penalty system.
- Implemented a DC penalty system before fixing the issues that sometimes FORCE people to DC.
- Nerfed Hillbilly into the GROUND after saying "We're happy with how he performs"
- Created an addon to buff his movement speed if someone is pointing a flashlight at him.
- For weeks, allowed streamers to be harassed with in game invites.
- For 2 months, allowed hackers to take control of their matchmaking system to match PC players, while playing as Freddy, against NINTENDO SWITCH survivors (just an example), where Freddy doesn't even exist, rendering him invisible.
I could go on for days. The point I'm making here is, there's "people doing the impossible", and then there's "BHVR doing the impossible".
I have zero faith in their ability to do the impossible. Or even the mildly difficult.
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Both completely valid arguments considering who we're talking about lol
In this case, if it's been successful in their tests so far... maybe they've succeeded. I mean it seems like they've tested this algorithm much more extensively than they've tested the rest of the game ;)
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MMR doesn't have to be calculated based on if you survive. It should be based on how often you depip, black pip, pip, or double pip.
However, the original ranking system was so much better. Resets always put you back at 20 making high ranks actually mean something. Now just about anyone can get rank 1
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Fact claims and opinion claims shouldn't be evaluated the same, and it's rare for someone, especially in an official announcement, to outright lie. Mislead? Maybe. Be wrong? Sometimes, not with something like this, but sometimes. But lie? Almost never.
A claim like "40% of Survivors die" can be taken at face value. This claim about predicting match outcomes is inline with a claim like this.
The kinds of claims you should be taking with salt are interpretations OF data. Such as "Therefor the hatch is OP" or "billy thus needs a nerf" or whtaever. Not the data being interpreted.
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Again - they say it's been successful. You know what else was successful in their tests? Dedicated servers. The DC penalties.
You put way too much faith into these people, lol
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You clearly don't know anything about me lol
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I should correct myself. You try to put too much faith into them. Effort they don't deserve.
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I've gotten 8 hooks and tons of hits with no kills, still pipped up. If you pip no matter what the outcome of the game (as a survivor or killer) you should gain MMR.
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But we know absolutely nothing about how they tested this system. Only that it's apparently "very accurate".
The balancing team has proven many times over that what they consider to be fun and balanced is very far removed from reality. So hearing that they've now designed a new match making system, I'm inherently skeptical.
We'll just have to see over time.
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I look forward to you discussing this on YouTube spaced you always keep it real.
🐷💖
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I'm writing it up as we speak and it starts like this...
"Ok! I’m actually excited for this one so forgive me if I don’t rage at the devs in today’s video."
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If the claim was "the mmr system is predicing balanced results", then being suspicious would make sense for that reason.
However, the claim "our system can accurately predict the outcome of a match" is not a subjective claim. No matter what their views on balance are, a prediction coming true still means the exact same thing
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One thing to consider with testing as that players will often do things the devs never thought they would do, which results in the breaking of there game.
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Same here. I rarely get less than 25k in a match because I do spread the damage around. Lots of hooks a death or two and I'm happy. If I get a 4k, great, if not, oh well. I don't know that my skill level deserves the red ranks that I achieve rather easily though. So I'm hoping this will work things out for all of us. When I face a team of good survivors and I'm rank 2 and they are rank 2 and they smoke me, I'm pretty sure I'm over-ranked.
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Poker proves that wrong. Poker is heavy rng, and yet there are people who are really good at it.
This is pretty simple actually. All they have to do is define a win condition for each side. Skilled players will meet that condition more often than than unskilled players. Just like good poker players win more hands than they lose. Then they just increase your skill rank based on whether or not you met that condition, they can also increase your rank more or less depending on the skill ranking of your opponent.
Dbd actually isnt all that disimilar to poker, as often youre playing your opponent against the hand your dealt. Thats where the skill in this game lies once you understand the tiles and strats
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Yes right and moris are balanced for the system, camping also, tunneling, hardcore slugging, that all alright because survs could just NoT gEt On ThE hOoK to avoid getting face amped or moried because it's so easy to loop a killer that is on bloodlust 3. Stop always only looking on the survivor side and start looking to the killer side too. How many boosted noob killers are on red ranks and how many players are camping, using only red moris even against players that don't even use any items or camp without reason? I losed so many pips just because I got facecamped. The problem isn't just that KeYs ArE oP its also annoying that killer just can camp and instantly use a mori that's also very unskillfull and unfair but hey. Keys are op. Because you see them like 1 time in 10 games and moris like 3-6 times in 10 games but yea. Keys are the problem. Killer mains wondering why survs are trying to rush gens as fast as possible but at the same time using moris slugging camping tunneling. Why should survs let you have fun when you don't let them have fun? Oh and before you even come up with LeT mE gUeSs? SuRvIvOr MaIn ThAt NeVeR pLaYeD kIlLeR, I have 100% in DbD I have 6000h and I'm playing both sites active. So I know what I'm talking about. I'm playing with 4 anti gen perks on rin and I'm getting 4ks like every game even tho I use bad add ons and I didn't even level her much. Guess I'm just playing against noobs or you guys are overacting because of keys. Sure they are annoying when they're in the game I hate it when survs escape through the hatch. But I also hate it when a killer is using a mori just to destroy the game to me and my friends. We're not toxic. We're playing fair and when I see that the killer isn't on the same rank as I am I'm often giving him a free kill because MM sucked. But saying that the new system won't work bcs of the hatch and because of keys but not even talking about camping slugging or tunneling to use a mori is in my opinion very weak.
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MMR is an asymmetrical game
Yep, totally similar to games like Siege to determine ranks
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Hoenstly if they do the mmr right. Getting higher mmr is gonna be easier. Due to dedicated servers the devs can track killer specific things and have the system check for them. Which means ranking up for killer will be easier the better you are as them
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I really like this analogy and it makes a lot of sense when you compare it to the RNG of dbd.
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Hatch escapes would just have less of an impact on someone's score. As would moris, I assume. Also, if you think EGC means hatch isn't necessary then that means you do not understand the purpose of the hatch to begin with.
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Just a thought: MMR may or may not work. Who knows! However, when some people - after having played it a bit - start saying it won't work, is that because of the MMR, or is it because of the player not being as good / being much better than they thought they were? How much of the thoughts on MMR are based on individual perceptions of their own ability?
Does that mean that, even if MMR becomes the perfect system, people will disagree with it because of their lack of knowledge in their own abilities? Just interested to know how that would factor in.
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People can be good at poker with bad RNG because they are masters at bluffing. That doesn't apply whatsoever to DBD. If you get zero pallets on one side of the map, are you just gonna bluff that the pallets exist? If you get bad luck with teammates and one of them just dies in five seconds, are you gonna bluff their missing progress on a generator? Defining a win condition itself is still absurdly difficult due to the asymmetrical nature of the game where somehow both sides can technically win. They haven't done it yet because its extremely hard to do.
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Well I agree theres more to it than poker, obviously. Bluffing isnt the only tool in poker either. Its about being able to read your opponent and figure out what they have and then playing them off their hand and what they think you have. Dbd at a high level is similar. What are the survivors doing, are they bunched up on 1 gen or are they split aceoss the map. Are they all really strong in chase or is there a weak link. If i chase this early pallet thrower through this strong area can i get the person thats strong in chase to run through that area once the pallets are gone?
And as far as bluffing is concerned, i bet you bluff and/or get bluffed at least 15 times in a given match and dont even realize youre doing it. T and L wall, survivor runs around the corner and you moonwalk backwards to catch them coming over the vault. You bluffed you were going one way and went the other. Did they call your bluff and keep running and not vault? Did they fall for it and catch a samurai sword to the face? So yes, theres a TON of bluffing in dbd
Teammate dying in 5 seconds is like getting a 7 - 2 off suit. Maybe you can still pull a win but the odds are not close to being in your favor. We can do this all day, theres a ton of similarities between these 2 games AFTER you learn and are consistent with the basics like landing hits consistently or looping properly.
Well they did define a win condition in the tutorials and yes there can be multiple winners. I agree doing that part is difficult, but not impossible. Survivor escape, killer kill 3k+. Bam. Win condition defined. Im not saying thats necessarily what it should be just that its not as complicated as people make it sound.
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Here's another reason I feel like dbd MMR won't work. The main way to be good as killer, is not just no know his ability, and use it well, but being able to predict survivors! If a new person starts on this MMR rating, it will take forever for him to be a good killer! A new killer will do bad at first. It happens, killer is based on prediction,band knowing how to use an ability, which a newbie will barely know. Because the killer is going to be bad, so will his survivors. Now, eventually he will be good at predicting and using an ability, but then you put him against better People, and they do completely different stuff! Now he'll lose 9 times out of 10, dropping him to a lower skill, and that loop could take a while to break. It's like a shooter game, if you drop me in a game with people who have played for years, yes, I'll do bad, but I'll start going good before other people who are also playing with ######### players, because I'll be used to having to fight good people, while the other people are used to fighting People there skill.
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Do they have less of an impact on someone's score right now? No, the survivors get bonus points for it and killers get robbed of a kill. To my knowledge hatch was put in to stop survivors from taking the game hostage. Maybe instead of hatch, which gives undeserved escapes rather than fulfilling its purpose, egc just starts when there's 1 survivor left. My version of egc would not power the gates, but I'll throw survivors a bone and say they should be powered. Problem solved.
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