Otz lucky? Or has SBMM changed?
First of all I love otz, I dont believe for a second hed lower mmr of stream. I also believe hes a very good killer.
With that out the way, I watched the first few games of 0perks AFK video as it's all anyone talked about.
Now I only watched the first 4/5 but I noticed he had a questionable and weak link survivor in the games.
For example huntress he had a meg who didn't know where he was and even gets hit at a gym then vaults into him all at the same gym (0 awareness)
Then there was a David who never looked behind him (trapper game I think) and he wastes god pallet and goes down and never looks where otz is at.
Now I know otz verses good players, but how are these people versing someone who wins so much? Is he just lucky or has SBMM changed?
I ask if SBMM has changed as I haven't played in a month, other games catch my eye but I like to keep up to date on things. So I never got someone that weak as killer, and all the survivors I got was all meta.
So has SBMM become more chill over time? Was he just lucky? Is it something else like day/time? Honestly curious.
Edit: btw all his videos showed me was you need a weak link thats clearly below your skill and play in an unfun way (camp, tunnel and slug) and you have a change of winning. Personally I hate that mentality, wish you was encouraged and rewarded for playing in a more fun way. Afterall chases are the most fun part for either role imo, dont wanna slug, tunnel and camp
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What his videos actually show isn't that SBMM changed or even that Otz is lucky- what it shows is that Otz is, statistically, just better at identifying and capitalising on the weak link that is almost always there.
It's easy to see it when you're watching a video but it's harder when you're actually in the middle of the match. All you see there if you get tilted is the good plays, not the bad ones- and even if you see them, doesn't mean you know what to do about it.
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Watch Tru3s attempt - he only got a kill rate of about 1.3.
And some of his matches were incredibly quick with 4e.
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I know what to do and how to identify weak links, but if not had a survivor since SBMM not run meta or not know how to look behind them or not realise a killer is right behind them.
Like I said I haven't played recently, grinding other games so maybe that's why and my SBMM hasn't adjusted for every killer that was placed high due to the start
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Does he even play killer anymore? I do feel he does get very strong teams but he also gets tilted abit and messes up.
Edit: he gets stream snipes alot so that could be a factor too I gues
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The devs talk a bit about mismatches in Part 1 of their recent Developer Update. Basically even assuming the MMR itself is a really accurate rating for a player, matchmaking is still going to be limited for outlier players like Otz because of some factors
- There aren’t many players with Otz’s rating probably. He’s a professional player with a massive amount of hours, the great majority of players aren’t in his rough bracket. So a lot of the time he’s going to end up timing out into a next available slot situation where he’s in whatever match it can get him.
- Additionally whenever someone leaves a lobby the system prioritizes filling the empty slot so it doesn’t have four players waiting a really long time for a replacement. That means shoving in whoever happens to be available, which could be someone like Otz who is playing prolifically.
So mismatches aren’t necessarily an indication the hidden MMR is wrong, but rather a function of what happens when there isn’t a close match readily available. And since the game is such that skill makes a really big difference in the outcome of the match, if Otz gets matched against a team that includes one or two people not at his level he will quickly find the weak links and eliminate them, allowing him to mop up the stronger players after they lose their support.
Finally the update also mentions that brand new players probably have their initial MMR set too high, they’re coming in around average or below average when if they’re truly brand new their actual accurate rating would be really, really low. They said they’re working in adjusting that.
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I watches both streams - some other streamers do attemps now as well - so there will be maybe more info.
Otz first matches did not seem to be very strong teams. And in some matches he got good snowballs. Which can always happen in the game.
But Tru3 had some really strong teams in my opinion.
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Ugh.
This is an example of how one person claiming that a rumor exists immediately causes a rumor to exist.
Otz gets really good people and some mediocre people. When he plays to win, he plays hard. He also loses plenty. EU servers have very odd matchmaking sometimes too.
I'll have to watch his series, but I've seen a fair amount of Tru3 games and - while he's an excellent player - he does tend to play a lot 'nicer', and also tilts quite fast.
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See thing is I'm also a very good player (haven't played in abit so I'd be rusty now) but I can say both my knowledge and skill is the same as otz for most killers (except trickster and huntress)
But iv never had a player like he had in some of those game (I know it's just the odd one but that makes a difference yano)
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I'm not doing either. Having a survivor unable to look behind or keep track of a killer clearly isnt otz skill.
I also stated otz is very good and verses strong teams. I'm just confused why he had such a weak link in the games I watched so i wondered luck or SBMM issues/changes
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Ah I only watched the first few of otz and none of true. I know they play different times but other than that I'd say theyrr equally as good skill wise.
But depends if true got tilted or tried playing nicer (hooks and not mass slugging) I know he dont enjoy that. While I know otz would of gone all out for the test like the OG he is
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Oh. I was just pointing out how one guy invented a rumor by claiming 'there's a rumor that x' and now everyone's talking about that rumor. Just the nature of gossip.
I watch Otz stream on occasion. He plays against very good people. Keep in mind that he has somewhere between 7 and 8 thousand hours in the game, most of that on killer. There just aren't that many people of that level to pair him against.
I'll say that even as an intermediate, I get bizarre games. SWFs with 10k hours combined against my 400. Completely new players with sub 20 hours. Right after each other. I suspect that lobby dodges cause this to happen, as the system basically just grabs the next person in line to fill the missing spot.
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Yea Otz didn´t joke around - which is fine with no addons or perks.
Tru3 had some options he did not took because it was boring to him. I think in some cases he could get 1 or 2 more kills.
But i found the challenge cool to watch.
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Well I'm not doing that, I love otz and I'm not gonna put him down. The best creator imo especially for info and everything.
Just curious as when I played awhile back I didnt see that and was hoping a SBMM had a change so it included a weaker link so it was like 2 good and 2 not so good for an example.
Oh for sure, I dont care how anyone plays as long as they're respectful to the players (no BM)
And ah yeah I guessed right, dont blame him though slugging every etc. Is abit boring and I feel bad for doing it.
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I really don't think SBMM has changed at all. It has always been this bad. Back when they turned it on permanently, in the first or second week I had a lobby with a Nancy that had 30 hours in the game and when I dodged it, I loaded straight into an Otz-Nina-Lionnek lobby. I think Scott made this observation very early on, admitting that he came across potatoes all the time despite having a really good MMR with Demo. OhTofu also plays against some abysmal survivors in some of his vids.
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Really? I never had that experience. Mine was as a survivor steam rolling every killer and then as killer getting insanely hard matches on a common basis.
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My SoloQ survival rate went from 40-45% to 15-20% ever since SBMM had been enabled. Either there's a person going down ever 15 seconds to a cracked Blight or its a baby killer that gets looped and maybe gets a hook if he is lucky. And as a Killer, it's the two extremes again. Absolute navy seal team with microsecond perfect DH and knowing when I will/will not respect pallet on any given loop. Then it's back to poor baby survivors hiding behind trees in the following lobby. It's almost like there's the Max MMR and the Min MMR with zero space in between.
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We don’t know what is mmr is. It’s hidden. If his survivors are weak, the most logical explanation is that his mmr is not that high.
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What i get from the forums here is that the mix of killers and teammates you can get seems huge. Maybe depending heavy on server, region and time.
I am in europe and lately my games tend to be more hit or miss - from 0e or 4e. I rarley get balanced matches.
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Strange, my escapes pretty much doubled and most killers got 2-6hooks max each game and they wasnt even bad tbh. There is a cap on MMR though and backfill is a thing but I never new mmr was that bad for people
Mmr is based of 2 kills, he gets that often so I doubt that
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We can't say whether SBMM has changed or not. There's very little transparency as far as how it works.
I'll use this example: the worst team in a professional sport is going to look like gods against the best amateurs. The worst pro team will also look like amateurs against the best pro team.
What I'm trying to say is that skill and experience, especially experience, matter a whole lot in DbD. Killers massively swing the odds in their favor simply by doing the optimal thing at the optimal time throughout the game, and most killers don't know how to do that or (in some players' cases) refuse to do that.
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So he was playing nice for his viewers and did a challenge when he sweats and tunnels / camp without apologizing every 2 seconds ?
And you are surprised he wins ? Not to mention he was facing potatoes ? Lol.
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In my opinion it's not a good experiment, maybe a fun challenge, but not an experiment, 26 game are not enough to judge the mmr.
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SBMM is indeed a little janky as killer. I have been going on massive winning streaks while i raise my mmr back up after tanking the ever loving hell out of it, and i will randomly get a team fully readied up and waiting the moment i load in. If they are not console or private i look at their profiles before the game starts and can see they are a fully loaded 4 man.
Guess how the game goes against me with my sound off and music playing with only corrupt as gen defence.
So i get my buttocks handed to me and move onto the next game and its as if my mmr has been downgraded 20 levels with the most potato of survivors (people with 200 hours).
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He didn't get lucky. He just played at a time of the day where trials are softer and failed to realize that occurence, or at least to discuss it properly.
If you play earlier in the day on EU, you're gonna face much better survivors, with the odd curve ball of baby teams still possible to happen, but much less likely.
That is not to say that many of the points he made are false. Rather, that his little experiment doesn't prove, nor disprove, anything, because its results are easily skewed.
Consider this. He afk'd 30 sec at the beginning of each match. Even if each survivor takes 10 sec to get on a gen, that's 20 sec of free repair time for each survivor. That adds up to a full gen worth of progress. If the they do coop, the numbers get a little more favorable for the killer, but ever so slightly. Moreover, keep in mind that's progress that the killer has no way to undo other than dry-kicking gens.
After that head start, a chase must be initiated and completed. You basically give up 3 gens, with a 4th being close to completion, when you have your first down, even against the tutorial bots.
Simply put, the only way a killer of ANY skill level could rebound from that is by either the survivors to suddenly experience broken left click buttons, or by the survivors being worse than AI.
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Or by the survivors realizing that they won´t get any bloodpoints out of this, if they continue to pump gens only with a afk killer.
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Totally agree. Here in south america for example in an overal most survivors have a decent skill level, and near midnight there is a lot more SWF and tryhard teams.
I don't think he would get so many kills if he was playing in the servers i play, a challenge like that would be a constant frustration of 1 or 1.5 kill average at most, and of course recurring to scummy tactics.
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I see it in a different way.
There just aren't that many people with 8000 hours in this game, let alone people with 8000 hours who play killer almost exclusively. Naturally, he's going to be matched against less experienced people - because, from his perspective, the majority of people are less experienced than him.
People often misinterpret the '2 kills' thing.
It means that, on average, you should be getting 2 kills. 4k, 0k, 1k, 3k. Not that you're getting 2 kills every game.
SBMM can be weird. I will say that if you want to compare the two in terms of Otz in particular, look at his older 'streak' videos under ranks and his attempts under SBMM. He got 100 wins on pre-rework plague in a row with no addons. It took him ages to get 20 wins as Cenobite.
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I think it's just showing exactly what I predicted would happen
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I thought the same, some survivors seemed brand new to the game. He's a godly killer obviously but I face sweatier teams than he does in half his videos
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I once played against the Otzdarva and then I watched my stream when he was facing my team. During that time I was not a good survivor but not a bad one as well but I can only tell one thing and that is Otz is really good at this game. He knows the weak spots of every map and he can easily identify the team he is facing and what to do against them and that is why we all love and enjoy watching him be honest. While I respect him for making a valid point and trying to encourage people that there is no balance issue, I think that we should check this statistic for some average players. In my opinion, the game is a map, perks, and power sided and the reason the survivor has more advantage at the game is that the survivor team is the least that is affected by the map and that is why mostly the killers have a hard time. One bad map and some missing perks can affect the killers quite heavily and that is why many killers have been damaged. The issue we need to address is the maps and overall mechanics of the game I think.
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I don't believe for half a second that Otzdarva's MMR is not high. Otz is very good, and has been pointed out by many, it does not take long to hit the MMR soft cap. What I do believe is that MMR (and we know it primarily rewards escapes and kills in a pretty binary fashion) does a piss poor job of measuring actual skill.
My primary issue with Otz (and others who literally play this game for a living) conducting these sorts of experiments is that they are the player, and their skill, cultivated through many thousands of hours of regular play, it a gigantic factor in the equation. Their experience is just not all that reflective of 99% of the player base. Skill in any video game is directly correlated to experience/playtime, so despite what the egos of many might want to believe, very, very, very few are on the level of Otz/Dowsey/Tofu/etc. When players like that bear down, it's just a different equation.
Scott Jund made a video about Otz's video and the reaction it got, and I largely agree with it. His feeling is that MMR isn't great, and that even at the highest MMR you will, more often than not, encounter teams with at least one potato (relatively speaking) on them. And if you are great a quickly identifying the weak link and capitalizing on that, it affords you the opportunity to win. This is the takeaway he had from Otz's experiment.
Tru3 didn't do so well because his playstyle is much more inefficient. He's very invested in spreading the hooks around and playing in an evenhanded and "fun" manner (I also don't think he's quite as good as other notable killers generally, but that's just mho). Not surprising he did poorly; he's not an opportunist like that.
I think from a killer perspective, the primary change that MMR has brought is that you can still win most of your games at high level, but you have to be really good, and you have to sweat like hell. This is why you don't see even the best killers casually rolling off huge win streaks anymore. And when you are playing at high MMR and you encounter that occasional team with no weak link? You lose.
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It’s weird. I don’t know why everyone is going on about that video as if it proves anything to do with power balance between the two sides. It literally just shows that a particularly talented individual who plays the game full-time as a career, and has a history of setting and achieving against-the-odds challenges, can do well in solo queue if they sweat, even with a handicap.
Doesn’t that already go without saying? 🤯
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Main factor is he plays at time when survivors are weak. I bet stats form 12 hours he usually streams would be different
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Yep and remember this is OTZ aka also the first guy(If I am remembering correctly) to successfully complete no hit all boss kills DS2 live.
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Yeah, I agree, though I do think that things like this are a little bit of a flex, and one of the knee jerk reactions people have is to want to discredit and/or dismiss videos/experiments like these because it serves as a reminder of how much better people who play the game for a living are then them. I mean there are non-streamers out there who are as good, but not freaking many. I think he was giving himself handicaps to try to account for that as well.
That said, I don't think this proves anything about power balance whatsoever. If you wanted to really dig into it, you'd have to randomly choose multiple killer mains at random and use them as your data collection group and then try to control the other variables (time of day, region, etc.) as best you can.
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I think one of the knee jerk reactions people have to these sorts of things is to want to dismiss or discredit them because it serves as a stark reminder that they aren't nearly as good as people who play games for a living. I do think that on some level vids like the one in question are a bit of a flex, but I also think that giving himself handicaps was an attempt to try and account for the skill gap.
That said, I don't think this proves anything whatsoever about power balance. If you wanted to really dig into it, you'd have to randomly select a group of killers, try to control other variables (loadout/time of day/region/etc.) and use them as your data collection group.
Using an experimental group of one (or a handful) with those being known outliers isn't going to prove (or even meaningfully imply) much of anything.
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