This game is unfair and the data prove it
These were released at the beginning of this year, and prove that before the update (6.1.0) that almost all killers had a greater than 50% kill rate, meaning the game favoured killers and never favoured survivors. The reason for the 6.1.0 update was to help killers when it was never hard for killers.
The 6.1.0 update is unfair to survivors.
Comments
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What would be really interesting to look at are the killrate by MMR/killer.
Because the data you are talking about is very general, and encompasses all levels.
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You're right, but only if we buff Nurse.
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the devs intentionally are obtuse with the data. they don't want you to have proof the game is imbalanced. that would be bad for optics.
if everyone found out that solo survival rates compared to swf survival rates had a difference of 10% no one would want to play solo anymore.
its largely swf that attributes to the survival rates anyway.
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We all know DC don't count in the stats but things like killing yourself on hook does which screws up the stats and not making them 100%.
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I want to see SWF's survival rates.
Who have it ?
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Are they really going for 50-50 situation? Killers should be strong. Also SWF are stronger than killer, and solo q is worst of the lot so the game is really only unfair to solo survivors.
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Why should the killer be stronger? What would be the point of playing survivor if you know there's almost no chance of winning?
I'm not a punching bag, I want to play both sides with an equal chance of winning.
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These stats tell nothing about what happend in the game.
Could be just 1 camped hook before all gens were done + an extra kill with NOED. (Not really fun for both sides, isn't it)
In a "healthy" game they should look for how many hooks / kills per gens happenend.
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Right before the 6.1.0 patch, the devs declared that kill rates are below expectations.
So its save to assume, that kill rates are below the 8 month old stats.
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This game has heavily favored killers for the last 6 years
Escape rate 2018 per map:
2019 Killrates per killer:
2021 Killrates per killer:
This game is killer sided and soloQ needs buffs, not nerfs.
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Old data is just that, old data. It tells us nothing what happens before the update.
You see, at least for me as solo survivor, the last 2 month before the update were game heaven. MMR was finally working for me, and i usually got teammates that knew how to do, and weren´t allergic to gens.
My escape rate before was 75%, and i guess it went way up, i would guess to about 90%, give or take.
If things like that happend to other survivors as well, then a working mmr did drop kill rates and showed flaws in killer design, because i believe killer were way underpowered, and the game was very survivor sided.
So, i belive buffing killer was the right move.
However, i think they went way over the top, because for solo survivors, it was a way too heavy hit. I understand they did it because of swf (and we know swf had a 10-15% higher escape rate than solos), but while it got fairer for killers against swf, it got more unfair for solo survivors.
I think they need to correct that, but as i say for years: they can´t do it without seperating solo queue from swf queue. So we will get some status symbols, and have to hope players do gens instead of hidding in bushes.
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Why is that a safe assumption?
They never clarified what the kill rates were currently at OR what the developers expectations for kill rates were. In fact, in the same announcement, they also said the killer "should feel like an unstoppable force". Why is it safe to assume that the kill rates fell below 50% vs the developers having a different expectation?
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I feel like people don't understand how absolutely in the gutter killer populations were before this. It was pretty common for the survivor to killer ratio to be around 30:1 at any given time because nobody wanted to deal with how stressful playing killer was which put strains on queue times and on sbmm. I'm not sure if they went overboard or not although I lean towards no but regardless BHVR absolutely needed to make playing killer more enjoyable than it was.
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This data also shows that Wraith is stronger than Nurse. Do you actually think this data is worth taking into account as the only truth?
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Why is everyone obessed with posting this chart right now?!
Killrates have always been extremely irrelevant and the ones presented here are utterly outdated on top of that.
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i like how everyone is putting out the stats from when boons were just a thing and killers were still a bit fun to play
and NOT AFTER THEM, which become a hell hole for killers, but who cares tbh KILLERS ARE OP MUST NERF ALL OF THEM
please stop it, until we get a new chart this is just dumb
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All this data is old. There were several updates after kill rate data was released. They also said they want it higher than 50% kill rates. Reason being is they are balancing the game between SWF and Killer. The one thing they needed to do when releasing the 6.1.0 update was also release HUD info for survivors in solo q and it would be nice if they also allowed survivors to see other survivor's perks, that way it would bring solo q up to SWF strength. But solo q isn't entirely unbeatable.
Stop trying to use the same perks everyone else is using for meta and stick to perks that you feel are your strengths. If you are finding your teammates to be the cause of most of your losses (I did for a while), bring perks that will help get gens done quicker, make you more stealthy, and increase gate opening speed. For solo q, it's best not to get caught by the killer. Trying to loop if you're not really good at it is only going to make you lose.
I also see this ALL the time... Solo Q survivors trying to troll/bully the killer. What is really the point? T-bagging after a pallet drop, spamming flashlight clicks, ect are only going to ensure you lose the match. It's time survivors start playing smart, not being overconfident in everything they do. 1 survivor is not supposed to be as strong/equal to the killer. It's never going to happen. So play selfishly if you have to, try different perk combinations, and don't take risks if you don't have to.
Hopefully HUD info and possibly more information to be shared between survivors in solo q will come soon because that's the huge difference between SWF and solo. A 4 man SWF can still easily win against a good killer. But solo q needs to be brought up to SWF strength and that should have been a higher priority before or with the 6.1.0 update. So until they can do that, solo q will have to suffer.
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Lets also not forget that games with DC's are excluded from that killrate as stated by the devs.
Survivors experience a much higher killrate than the graphs present
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Those stats are across literally all matches but the devs understandably look at more precise metrics involving like kills by MMR brackets. They’ve talked for example about how certain killers like Nurse and Twins have very different kill rates at low or average MMR than they do at high MMR and they take that into account when they make balancing decisions. So when the devs say they felt the kill rates were low they’re not necessarily talking about the chart you posted, they could be talking more specifically about the kill rates among more seasoned players for instance, or the ratio of games where all survivors escape versus at least one survivor dies, etc.
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Balancing around statistics is a foolish thing to do since statistics are flawed (remember that a lot of people also will self suicide on hook just for the fact that they aren't happy about the map/killer), plus those won't tell you how really is balanced the game (I can do a match with 0 hooks but winning in the end cause I slugged everyone with noed for example, or I can finish a match with a 2/4 but only because I let the remaining survivors farm for Example...). If you want balance around statistics then nurse should be buffed and pig nerfed...
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Not true, before 6.1 during that anniversary event with the flans killer queues were insanely long too, even with old DH and DS working during endgame playing killer was fine, especially with bbq farming BP was very easy even if you lost the game it didn't matter, it was never as bad as current solo Q
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The kill rates are juiced anyways. Plenty of killers get extra kills in EGC because of NOED, because teammates throw themselves at the killer making hopeless saves, etc. If all survivors just safely left and didn't make any risky saves in end game, the kill rates would be much lower.
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😢 1
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I hate to say this, but it's literally an asymmetric horror game where the survivors are supposed to be scared of getting caught and killed. Whatever made you think it was supposed to be fair?
If the killer win rate is anywhere between 50-75%, they're doing fine, balancing wise.
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Statistics are the best way to balance a game which is why its used for balance in every single game... You dont just read the numbers, you apply logic to why the number are what they are which is a basic rule of statistics. We all know why nurse killrates are what they are, you dont have to be smart to understand that. Your opinion is that because of certain variables you shouldnt use statistics yet that is exactly why they are used, to get a better understanding of these variables and make adjustments while using logic.
How does killrate not represent the balance? slugging counts to killrate, DC's games are excluded. The game was finally getting close to 50% escape rate and the devs decided that this is not what they want, they want it to be a killersided game which is to capitalize on the "horror/scary" aspect of the game. Its just a dumb decision, people want balance in pvp games, this aint a game like outlast. Dumb decision on the devs part since they already have trouble keeping players. If you start a queue with the expectations to die because of unbalance, thats the point where people start leaving. People want the same odds in pvp game which is exactly the opposite of what the devs want and are doing to the game.
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We've always known this though.
I never had issue with playing killer pre-patch. Let alone post patch.
Anyone having difficulty in the new patch should really be questioning themselves if killer is the right role for them.
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It's pretty disingenuous to suggest anni was the average when that's obviously not true.
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People want the same odds in pvp game which is exactly the opposite of what the devs want and are doing to the game.
I'm people and that isn't what I want. I want Bloodpoints and a good time. As long as I'm pulling ~20k BPs per match I'm happy. Surviving to 20k is what I want. I dont need to escape to have a good time.
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Because the kill rates have been dropping in the last 2 years.
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What you as 1 person want has nothing to do with what the game should be and what the average population wants. These things i mentioned is part of basic human psychology. Its just a fact how close the experience of having fun is correlated to having a challenge, winning and feeling of fairness (aka balance). For every 1 person like you there are 100 others that want balance.
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You can't have a balanced, asymmetrical game.
Let's say, I can perfectly assess every player's skill level: 500 being the lowest skill and 1900 being the highest, just to have numbers.
The most challenging game I can give a 1900 killer is to give them a lobby of four 1900 survivors.
The most challenging game I can give a 1900 survivor is to give them a 1900 killer and three teammates who are 500. Better teammates only make the game easier for the one we're focusing on.
These can't be the same match.
This doesn't even take into account perks, abilities, or even the game mechanics. There just isn't a single match that presents a 'balanced' game for both sides. Not competitively at least, which is likely why people generally preferred the days before MMR.
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So you are basing this of this one page of stats that includes absolutely everybody while the devs who made the changes have litterally all the stats
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Nope.
Those numbers mean nothing.
Look at the 'worst' killer in the game and you'll probably be able to guess why.
They are being thrown off completely by newer players. The devs have their own internal numbers, which demonstrated to them that kill rates weren't high enough.
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You lose credibility when you say things like that. In 2016 killers took 5 mins to vault a window while survivors would fast vault no matter the angle or distance. In 2016 the game was heavily survivor sided
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Has it? Where are you seeing these numbers?
From scouring the internet for when the developers released official stats, this is what I found
2019 - 56.83%
2020 - 56.21%
July-Sept. 2021 - 53.83%
Dec. 2021 - Jan. 2022 - 55.02%*
*- no aggregate number released so this is the median of the killer percentages given
From everything I've seen, kill rates have floated around the 55% mark. Did I miss a release information or are you going off your intuition here?
I should point out, I obviously don't agree with the original post and don't think any major changes should be based off simplistic kill rate numbers but I have a genuine interest in stats and would love to see them.
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Unfortunately we'll likely never see those numbers.
The gross numbers were really just there for funzies - and it's frustrating how many people take them as any sort of reliable balance metric.
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Old data, imagine what it looks like now lol. They'll never show current stats.
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The problem is the data you are sharing was posted right around the time MMR went live meaning that all the data at that point was pre-mmr. And everyone knows that the rank system favored killers, because it was too easy to rank up.
While we haven't seen data from post-mmr release, it's safe to say that MMR really brought down the kill rate for killers.
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Low mmr in a nut shell. I really don't know how you're supposed to climb out of low mmr when this happens everygame. I am a killer main but happened to my friend every game pre patch.
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I don't see why not.
I'd love to have a dataset to play with.
The problem with stats though is that they are incredibly open to manipulation and interpretation.
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These stats tell nothing, as survivors in low mmr have no idea how to use their resources correctly or even loop so low mmr ends up extremely killer sided. Which is quite literally impossible to fix as this game first starting out is super killer sided. And you never ever balance around low mmr in any game.
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Blanket percentages say very little, its a PR release nothing more.
Watching joe public try to wield stats is like watching a toddler wield a shotgun.
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October 2020 red ranks, highest kill rate 75,69%; lowest kill rate 57%
My source:
December 2021-January 2022, higest kill rate 58,62% and lowest kill rate 49,25%
Source:
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The problem with balancing this game not only come simply from it being an asymmetric 4v1. As if that wasn't hard enough it has to be balanced both around solo queue and 4 people in a discord call. Obviously if all 4 people are communicating well AND are good at the game the killer is going to have a worse time than when all 4 queued individually and aren't able to communicate and they have a fresh install Dwight.
So keeping that in mind, this close to 50% is impressive. This data doesn't account for what games are and aren't solo queue. Solo queue does need a buff. Maybe more emotes that are actually labeled to mean different things instead of just the point and come here gesture. Maybe give people who are queued by themselves more aura information. So on.
The way I see it is if you have 5 people of equal skill, but the survivors are not communicating the killer should get a 2k most of the time and 4ks happen every now and again. If you have 5 people of equal skill and all 4 survivors queued together and are tryharding callouts the killer should almost NEVER get a 4k and always get at least 1, ALWAYS. And between these two the average should be as close to a 50% kill rate. I'd argue that this is very close to being true. Note: Again, this is speaking of magical matches where the killer is at a skill level where every encounter is a very close advantage for each with almost just luck playing into who comes out on top. Loops last just long enough for a gen to pop or some other stuff to get done. But not so long that the first down is done well after the 2nd gen pops. So on. Pressure spread perfectly evenly and people getting shoved on hooks at the perfect rate for a 2k.
Obviously the skill based matchmaking in this game doesn't work so these ideal outcomes don't happen as often because the ideal conditions aren't met. I often play with 3 other people in a discord call. None of us are great at the game but I'd say a little over half of the time we get 3 or 4k'd.
All in all this post seems to be survivor mains with a lack of perspective complaining. It is SO close to 50%. Most games are solo queue with the survivor team not even close to their true potential if they were communicating.
The reality is killers are supposed to be amazing in 1v1s. Obviously. The killer is designed to get them eventually. So the only thing you have against them is teamwork. Without being able to communicate finding the perfect balance between doing gens and going for saves isn't easy. The advantage of teamwork is hindered. So more than likely 2 of you are going to die.
The devs need to buff solo queue, otherwise they're doing a very impressive if obviously flawed job of keeping the game balanced.
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If the killer is as skillful as killer as you are at survivor, he beats you in 1v1 obviously. But you should be able to loop him for a decent chunk of time such that your teammates could have gotten gens and healing done. If you're keeping a killer looped all game the killer is less skillful than you and it wasn't a fair match, Obviously MMR can't be perfect so you'll get and deserve those hard wins. But you shouldn't be able to do this to a killer as skillful as you. In that case your team should still at least get 2 people out. That's the equal chance of winning. Each survivor has a 50% of escape and the team should have a near 100% chance of getting at least 1 person out. But 2 people are likely to lose. In this ideal situation the killer always "wins" depending on if you do it half glass full or half empty. Same with looking at the survivor team. The always "win". But an individual survivor can only win half the time in that case. If you want for it to be possible that a skillful killer could get 0 kills against 4 solo queue survivors of equal skill than you don't understand what balance should mean in asymmetric games.
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DCs SHOULD be excluded. If someone DCs early you are at a disadvantage. That sucks and they should add bots to replace them but you don't balance a game like this around games where things were unbalanced due to something out of the devs control. If someone DCs early you're likely to lose. Don't blame the game or the killer, blame the guy that DC'd.
It would be nice if they punished DCs more. Like adding extra matchmaking things where if you're someone who DCs a lot you get matched with fellow jerks who do the same and high level killers that will wipe. If you DC more than 7 times in one week period you should have a 5 minute wait on every game you queue for, for a month. Resetting the countdown if you keep doing it. Maybe make these people earn blood points at a -0.5% per score when they're on a DC streak.
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I disagree a bit. Because it's a horror game where (as a surv) are supposed to be in an against the odds scenario against a powerful force. The odds shouldn't be overwhelmingly against you, but I feel like they should be against you. And it feels more rewarding that way, imo. And the odds of all the team getting out should be pretty long. Like a horror movie.
Death shouldn't be a near certainty but it should be unlikely. It feels thematically appropriate, whereas a 50:50 feels like what you would want and expect from a symmetrical game, but that's not what DBD is.
I don't know what numbers BHVR are shooting for, but 60/40 is what I would have in mind.
Being a "punching bag" would be more like ~80/20, imo. We're nowhere near that.
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I mean the fact that you can find tons of different killer streamers who post videos about 50 or even 100 win streak games on a variety of or all killers meanwhile the only survivor to ever post a long win streak was noob3 at like a 50+ win streak should say enough.
Dowsey did this video on the greatest moments in dbd and they were all killer win streaks with an honorable mention to noob at the end lol
Game's always favored killer but now its just easier than ever.
I remember sweating my balls off for a 4k back in 2020, now its straight up boring how easy it is.
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The devs actually want an average of 2.4 kills in a match which means 60%. They concluded this based on research that shows most killer players would be satisfied with that number.
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Lmao win streaks like this aren't even a thing since MMR was introduced unless dude is tanking his MMR offstream, which I actually wouldn't doubt. I almost never dodge and try to win and I get paired against sweat teams every night while guys like OhTofu are out there dumpstering babies every night live on Twitch
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