The actual Survivor win rate question

If you count Survivors as a team, forcing 3E/4E only for Survivor wins, then sets of 5 games comes out to 22% (with all permutations I could find), with 28% draws/2Es. If you throw out draws, you get ~31% winrate. Technically as you include more sets of games, you get a more and more clearer picture, and personally I'm sure you would close in to a ~40% winrate with law of large numbers pushing things that way (again, if you throw out draws).

Another factor to consider is the rate of DCs. BHVR throws out DCs in their stats, so if Killers DC at 25% the rate of Survivors it is fair and fine. However, if Killer DCs over 25% of Survivor DCs, then Kill rates are inflated artificially, or in other words lets just say 55% real instead of 60% fake (no math for this napkin 'sake of argument' estimate). Also, if the Killer DCs under 25% of Survivor DCs, then the opposite happens, and Kill rates are deflated artificially, or lets say 65% real kill rate instead of 60% fake (again, I didn't do the math for this napkin 'sake of argument' estimate). Personally (as in from my matches on both sides) I think Killer DCs are about 10% of Survivor DCs, so real kill rates are even higher than 60% by however much that actually shakes out to.

There also is an argument that a DC results in a 4K/4E regardless (depending on which side had the DC), so you need 100% Killer to Survivor DCs to break even (or even 60SDC-40KDC rates to match the intended kill rates to go further in the weeds). Regardless of the specifics, the Survivor DC rate IME is far far far greater than the Killer DC rate, which would mean higher kill rates aren't being counted as a result.

I’ve had many survivors claim they won and beat me by getting hatch so I think that for most survivors as long as they escape it’s counts as a win for them.

I don’t care if a survivor gets hatch because I killed the other 3 which is a win for me and the hatch RNG favored them, there’s no skill in it. Either I stumble upon it and close it or they stumble upon it and escape.

And I couldn’t be bothered or learn the spawns as a 4k is honestly not that serious to me. But if I’m the only one who escapes I consider it a loss.

I actually have data on this from my own games, which I recorded (can post the dataset on request).

Below stats only include games where I was a survivor myself (solo queue only):

Number of Games: 155
Survivor Win Rate: 31.6%
Survival Rate: 39.52%

Draw Rate: 11.6%
Rage Quit Rate: 21.3%

What constitutes as a win is exactly what you described.
3-4 escaping = survivor win
2 escaping = draw
1 or less escaping = survivor loss

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I also have stats for my killers games too though, if interested:

Number of Games: 129
Killer Win Rate: 69.0%
Kill Rate: 71.3%

Draw Rate: 11.6%
Rage Quit Rate: 17.83%

You can do some math to get survivor win rates (19.4%) and survival rates (28.7) for these.

And no it's not a typo, the draw rate for both my survivor and killer games are the exact same, which I find both shocking and hilarious.

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I do feel the game has the potential to be very survivor sided at the very highest level (SWF, co-ordinated, using strongest items/perks). But that's not the majority of games. In solo queue? Pretty killer sided, and I don't think there's much argument against that.

2 is a tie/draw, which is separate from a null (which is Hatch, which throws out the results/has no impact on MMR). A tie is a equal win/loss for both sides. So if a Killer loses in a 2K, Survivors as a team lose in a 2E, and if a Killer wins in a 2K, Survivors as a team win in a 2E.

You can't just say draws count as Survivor wins since they aren't Killer wins. I mean I guess you could, but they you would have to remain logically consistent in saying draws are a Survivor loss, because it isn't a Killer loss. That would make it so 0E/1E/2E are Survivor losses, and 0K/1K/2K are Killer losses. Thus making 2K/2E the worst case scenario for everyone, since all players lose.

Depends on the MMR. At low MMR I would say survivors probably have a 10-20% win rate going off of 3E criteria.

Average MMR probably sits around 20-30%

High MMR I would guess is around 35%

I’d be remiss to point out that the devs want a 40% escape rate and not win rate. So that means that 1-2 survivors should escape every match with 1 being more common.

There are also way too many factors. If it’s Nurse every time then the win rate for survivors is probably in the 10% or lower range.

If you want fun statistics, then you can believe whatever number BHVR tells you, but it's not data based on real skill. Most people are doing challenges or dailies and/or using non-meta perks. Meaning: they're not playing for real. Now they may want to win, but they're not playing 100. Y'know? Most games should be thrown out of that data pool, but they're not. Like, all those people that consider this a casual game. Yeah, throw those games out because they're not playing for real.

I think the number BHVR is counting is a bit relaxed and isn't a true indication of how people would really play, unless there was a real reason to do it.

Whatever BHVR says. When my team plays for fun? Maybe 60 percent of the time. When we play for real, a lot higher than that. But we haven't done that in a long time because it's boring as #########.

I don't know how much survivors were escaping when I still played killer a couple years ago, but it low. I know that it would be very different if I went against my own team and they played for real.

I mean when you play so fast and loose with definitions, I can make winstreaks include numerous prior matches, so as long as you win more than you lose, it still counts. "I have 100 kills and 50 escapes as Killer, so my winstreak stands unless I get 51 escapes in a row without a single kill." That is a 'valid' winstreak with this framework.

I just think when we have such a clear metric of Kill/Escape, the side with more of their desired result, wins. If neither side has more, then neither side wins, thus a draw.

Elo Hell already exists when people are ratting the second things get heated, and aiming for Hatch/Wake Up+Sole Survivor plays.

Not really. If your way better than your opponent as survivor, you will solo carry/5 gen chase the killer. If your team dies due to incompetency, you can run sole survivor+wake up and escape through exit gate. it won't count as big MMR win but you won't lose mmr. on average, you will have positive escape-rate thus pushing you out of wrong MMR faster. In a team based system, you escaping through exit gate as solo survivor = loss.

if they want to have 'more kills than escapes net over a day/week/month' as their winstreak, its still a winstreak.

Yes you can make up your own win streak. What i am talking about is general perceived team win-rate for survivor compared to killer win-rate.

what counts as win is what killer perceives as loss. For most people that play killer, I would wager that most people playing killer would not consider 0 kill, 1 kill and 2 kill as winning. I mean you could make a poll that asks, "do you consider a 2k a win? Yes/No. ".. I am pretty sure that most killer would answer no.

You can only solo carry against Killers who left their brain in another pocket. An early Killer skill is when to drop chase, so your ability to solo carry is directly connected to whether or not the opposing Killer has learned this skill or not. The second you go against Killers who have learned this skill, they will gobble up all the baby Survs and you will still lose. Even then your solution to allied rats is to rat harder than them? I'm sorry but I don't think that is a good system.

at low level of play, the killers are not skilled enough to make good in form tactical decisions on their gameplay because they lack skills to make those plays. that is why they're at low rank killer. Just the same reason why survivors are low rank because… they lack certain skills to play better to escape their opponent. that is why when your clearly better survivor than the killer, it isn't that hard to defeat the killer however the team elements of the game require your teammates to have certain level competency for the team as a whole to escape. Sometimes that competency is not really there. that is why there is this hatch & exit gate stuff in end game for free escapes. these systems allow you to get out of poor mmr faster IF you are significantly better than your current MMR bracket suggests. In a team system, you would still get out of low MMR if your high MMR, but it would take longer.

People on the (team-based*) Survivor side of this equation would consider a 2E 'not a win' in the same way Killers would consider a 2K 'not a win'

Why would they not consider it a win? If killer agree that he didn't win then you must won. Some player won't admit they ever lose and saying that they're drew is a way of softing the blow. in my opinion, draw concept probably comes from literal MMR concept that dev are using for matching which is the killer kills two and 2 survivors escape, say each survivor = 10 mmr. You'd gain 20 MMR but lose 20 MMR = 0 MMR. They're counting the final MMR gain or Final MMR loss as win or loss. The number for going up or down is just a number to understand what level of player the matchmaker looks to pair with one another. It is matchmaking tool, not a win or loss condition. The win or loss condition is what game is about.

I guess what I'm trying to say is you are assuming a zero-sum game

All games follow zero-sum game. The goal of magic of the gathering is to deplete enemy life pool. to my knowledge, they have 20 health and when your health goes to 0. you lose. the other side wins although magic of the gathering also has bunch of alternative win conditions but let's stick with basic. that is zero-sum rule for magic.

You could consider a Draw a loss here, but both sides are losing by not getting the 3 points, not only one side. Same for DBD, if a 2K is a loss for Killer (and not a Draw), and a 2E is a loss for Survivor (because again Draws don't exist), both sides lose.

Dbd has scoring but it is only related to hooks. Hook in my opinion would be tie-break type statistic. it would be only useful if holding tournament.

For example if you have 6 teams and 8 killers. each killer is forced to play wraith. You want figure out which of 8 killer's is best wraith player vs these 6 teams and which team is best survivor team to facing wraith. Let's say each killer play each team 2 times. This means that every player would have 12 games. Suppose one killer has 5 wins and 7 losses and another killer also has 5 wins and 7 losses. when placing killer player in standing, you would look at their hook count difference. the killer with more hooks would be placed higher in standing. It would be the same for survivor teams where the team with least hooks with same win/loss ratio would be placed higher. If both teams have exact same stats, then you would look at total hook stages, than if it is still the same then maybe tiebreaker match. this is how I would go about it.

killer would always be compared to other killer players and survivors would always be compared to other survivor teams.

My escape rate as a survivor is 2 out of 10 games, honestly I think what makes this game bad is the tunneling, stupid map design and matchmaking (I'm a survivor with 2k hours of matchmaking by people who just installed dbd 1-3 months ago)

I do personally think that game events should be implemented into MMR calculations.

I've said for years that the 1vs1 chess ELO system that most MMR systems are based on is far too simple for games with a complex match making system like League of Legends or DBD.

These are games where your team can cost you a game through no fault of your own, but also a game where your teammates can carry you with no input from yourself at all. Simply boiling it down to escape vs. not escape is too simple.

That said an overly complex system based on scores creates issues with farming throwing off skill caluculations.

Boring Number part

If it were me the 2 simplest and fairest metrics to weigh MMR skills of players on are gens completed and hooks. E.g. with some example guesstimate numbers:

Killers:

• Kills grant MMR of say +2 per kill, -2 per gate escape.
• Hooks grant MMR of say +1.5 per hook and -1.5 per missed hook (hooks not hook stages).
• Gens grant MMR of say +1 per gen not repaired, -1 for each repair gen.

Then obviously apply a multiplier based on the skill difference vs. The Survivor team average.

This would mean killers who camp and tunnel players out are less likely to get all 12 hooks, and allow multiple gens to go by since they are not applying pressure to other members of the team. Some example results:

• Killer 0k (-8) with 2 hooks (3 - 15) and 5 gens completed (5) = -25
• Killer 0k (-8) with 8 hooks (12 - 6) and 5 gens completed (-5) = -7
• Killer 1k (2 - 6) with 8 hooks (12 - 6) and 5 gens completed (-5) = -3
• Killer 2k (4 - 4) with 6 hooks (9 - 9) and 5 gens completed (-5) = -5
• Killer 2k (4 - 4) with 9 hooks (13.5 - 4.5) and 5 gens completed (-5) = +4
• Killer 3k (6 - 2) with 7 hooks (10.5 - 7.5) and 4 gens completed (1 - 4) = -2
• Killer 3k (6 - 2) with 11 hooks (16.5 - 1.5) and 5 gens completed (-5) = +14
• Killer 4k (+12) with 0 hooks (-18) and 1 gens completed (4 - 1) = -3 (slugging is bad mmmkay)
• Killer 4k (+12) with 6 hooks (9 - 9) and 3 gens completed (2 - 3) = +11
• Killer 4k (+12) with 12 hooks (+18) and 4 gens completed (1 - 4) = +26

Survivors:

Survivors are little more tricky as they have to be calculated when the survivor dies/escapes. Since they may not be in the game as long with fewer "events" to track, they need bigger numbers...

• Escapes grant MMR of say -7 per death, +7 per gate escape.
• At point of death/escape, allies not on hook/dying/escaped +2, allies dead/dying -2.
• At point of death/escape, gens completed grant +3, gens not completed grant -3.

Again apply multiplier based on the difference between Killer and own MMR.

Survivors meanwhile enjoy bonuses based on their contribution to the team, and taking chase from the killer can actually result in net gains of MMR. There is also some incentive to not be the last man standing. Some example results:

• Survivor death (-7) with 0 allies alive (-6) and 1 gen done (3 - 12) = -22
• Survivor death (-7) with 1 ally alive (2 - 4) and 0 gens done (-15) = -24
• Suvivor death (-7) with 1 ally alive (2 - 4) and 4 gens done (12 -3) = 0
• Survivor death (-7) with 3 allies alive (+6) and 0 gens done (-15) = -16 (yes you SoH players suck)
• Survivor death (-7) with 3 allies alive (+6) and 3 gens done (9 - 6) = +2
• Survivor death (-7) with 3 allies alive (+6) and 5 gens done (+15) = +14
• Survivor escape (+7) with 0 allies alive (-6) and 2 gens done (6 - 9) = -2
• Suvivor escape (+7) with 0 allies alive (-6) and 5 gens done (+15) = +16
• Survivor escape (+7) with 2 allies alive (4 - 2) and 5 gens done (+15) = +23

This looks like it would work a lot better than just Kills vs. Escapes. There is the caveat that a survivor can dip before their ally is downed to get more MMR, bit that would be rare enough to not really matter (and it's only worth 2 points, gens repaired has the bigger effect).