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Plummeting player count

2

Comments

  • Triplehoo
    Triplehoo Member Posts: 699
    edited December 19

    Not to mention those who play via EGS and Microsoft GamePass. If you count the approximate playerbase along all platforms, the player count might be somewhere 100k concurrent players

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    The game is actually relatively balanced when it's SWF versus killer. The game cannot be balanced around solo queue.

    60% kill rate does not mean a 60% win rate. Others have explained it better, but don't get too caught up on that number. Most of the time, even losing games, a killer can secure 1 kill and 3 kills on a winning game.

    See above. You're hyperfocusing on one number that doesn't mean quite what you think it does.

    Didn't you say in another thread that you actually want BHVR to be survivor favored?

    And yet outside of 2v8, my killer queues are nearly instant and most of the time have a 25%-50% bonus. Clearly there is no shortage of survivors.

    Define 'win' as it pertains to killer. Show your work.

    (Yes, I'm making a point here. BHVR have never defined what a 'win' constitutes for a killer player).

    Also - this game has 3 'sides'.

    Think of it like this. You can have solo versus killer, SWF versus killer or a mix of solo and SWF versus killer. Game is fairly balanced as SWF versus killer. You cannot buff solo willy nilly without completely breaking said balance.

    BHVR have been adding in a ton of things to help solos, and I can't really think of much more they can do short of preventing suicides. Even showing equipped perks in lobby could go sideways with increased lobby dodges (which borks matchmaking).

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Yes, but this is a case of raw statistics being misleading. I think Otz explained this in detail, but from how I understood it, the way the game is built creates an inflated kill rate when you factor in that 4o is way rarer than 1k, the game is really snowbally and there is an incredibly high rate of quitting on one side but not the other.

    Just blueskying, but I'd guess a 55% kill rate against high MMR SWFs translates to something very close to 50%, factoring in the prevalence of 25% kill rate even in losing games (1k).

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230
    edited December 19

    Sure, which is why the kill rate is a bit lower. Watching some top level streamers though, it definitely isn't uncommon, and altruism can also backfire hard.

    I don't think there has ever been a time in DbD's history when there were more useful perks on either side. There just aren't as many flat out broken ones like CoH and DH were.

    I will say that SC should never have been nerfed as this was hugely punishing to solos, and I think most people seem to agree.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979

    I used to play daily. One of my favorite games. However, i like to master underdogs, so I mained ghostie. P100. I also am not out to make anyone's experience miserable, so if I'm playing and notice the survivors getting stomped, I back off and let them catch up. If I end up getting a lot of hooks at once, I'll hold off and let people get unhooked and reset. I also almost always give last hatch.

    However, I have not played in over a month, now. Why? Every patch, they keep kicking the weaker m1 killers in the gut making them weaker and weaker all in the name of global killer nerfs and survivors buffs because 1 or 2 killers are problematic. Playing "nice guy" killer and getting more and more difficult to play. Now we have shoulder the burden which can all but guarantee that m1 killers won't be able to get any eliminations before the endgame if you're in that higher mmr bracket. M1 killers cant compete in the endgame with 4 survivors up unless using the cheap perk NOED.

    Nurse and blight are such a problem, and instead of addressing them, they just mass nerf all killers or mass buff survivors to "fix it", but all it does is make underperforming killers perform even worse to the point where it's just complete frustration to play them. What is the effect of this design philosophy? Friendly/fair killers stop playing the game or swap over to being sweaty, or killers just stop playing the underperforming killers and we end up having almost every match always nurse/blight/wesker.

    DBD is falling apart because the devs are heavily encouraging fair play killers to quit the game or otherwise play sweaty. That means all we have left are sweaty killers, excessive sluggers, and so on along with a small variety of killers to actually face.

    In the end, playing a fair killer just isnt an option anymore unless you want to deal with 4 man teabags st the exit gate every match.

    Here's an example of how I typically play.

  • NODD3RS
    NODD3RS Member Posts: 161

    nothing will kill this game. If the eruption meta that lasted 6 months didnt kill it, or the healing boon + dh meta, nothing will

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Chess merchant made me quit playing survivor for about a month. The first incarnation of Bone Chill (snowmen that were a third health state for survivors and also bugged out a lot of killer powers) had me taking a similar break from killer.

  • Crowman
    Crowman Member Posts: 9,567

    It's funny how some parts of the community care so much about the gaming dying. Weird how a game can be dying for years and still hold a 30-40K players on steamcharts.

  • Akumakaji
    Akumakaji Member Posts: 5,487

    You are a really good addition to the forums. I always like reading a new comment of yours :)

  • Akumakaji
    Akumakaji Member Posts: 5,487

    My hot take for the longest time is pretty simple, and pretty beautiful, as it would only hamper the most organised and well oiled SWF, while hardly impacting fun-SWFs and absolutely not affecting soloQ. Perk up and listen to me wonder cure for the game:

    • let every survivor see the other survivors load-outs in the lobby
    • don't allow for duplicates within a SWF

    Thats it. With this simple change everyone could guesstimate what the others are up to and maybe adjust accordingly or at least take a mental note, that that player has that certain perk equipped. And the most well organised SWFs could not abuse stuff like 4DH, 4 UB or even 4 Head On in liu with a Dead Dog map offering, while in the same vain only minimally impact the gameplay of run of the mill SWFs who only want to play with their friends. In my regular SWF we sometimes have some overlap, but most of the time we all do our own things, and if we knew beforehand, it would be easy to rectify. And soloQ players could always bring whatever they fancy.

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    I've thought about this exact problem before - as it's SO annoying to have 4 kindreds for instance. The issue is that A. good luck ever playing stuff off meta, like No Mither and B. lobby dodging would go through the roof which in turn completely breaks matchmaking. My guess is that BHVR considered this and rejected it for that reason.

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Wait.

    Hang on a damn second there.

    Where did I say 'the kill rate isn't real?'

    Double inverted commas mean that's a direct quote. So again - where?

    Statistics are accurate but also give an inaccurate view of the whole picture here. Which is why I posted that often misattributed Disraeli quote.

    I mean what I said. The stats are what they are, but the stats can be deceptive in isolation.

    I'm not sure if you didn't really read what I said or simply misunderstood

    Also - the term 'win rate' is meaningless for killer. Because BHVR has never specified what the killer win state is.

  • JPLongstreet
    JPLongstreet Member Posts: 5,997

    Right? With most likely 150k+ altogether actively playing across all platforms, most other games wish they were dying this well! 😂

  • Ryuhi
    Ryuhi Member Posts: 3,893

    That has nothing to do with what I said. I only mentioned SWFs as a variable that contributes to the average, so I don't see what that has to do with my comment.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979
    edited December 20

    Bear in mind that stat is still at a per survivor basis. If 3 of the 4 survivors escape, one of them on the stats still show as a failed escape despite the survivors "winning". The game stats are built at a per survivor basis and don't count them as a team, so if it's, 48% per survivor with SWFs (IIRC), their overall rate of escaping is actually decently high.

    If you have 4 "things", and each "thing" has a 48% chance of being positive, then you actually end up with a pretty high chance of it being in your favor. It's a 68% chance that half of the survivor team escapes. That's two survivor winners and a killer loser. (survivors win are entirely separate per survivor - they either win or lose. Killers need 3 kills for a win).

    You have only a few possible outcomes

    0 survivor winners, 4 survivor losers, 1 killer winner

    1 survivor winner, 3 survivor losers, 1 killer winner

    2 survivor winners, 2 survivor losers, 1 killer loser

    3 survivor winners, 1 survivor loser, 1 killer loser

    4 survivor winners, 0 survivor losers, 1 killer loser

    Post edited by RpTheHotrod on
  • Ryuhi
    Ryuhi Member Posts: 3,893

    well… yes?

    My entire point was that the stats do not force outcomes like people always like to argue, they are a data point that has a very large deviation in either direction and not "I will lose 60%/win 40% of my games" guaranteed.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979
    edited December 20

    It's certainly variable. The numbers are just averaging across a multitude of matches. You could win 10 in a row (a 100% win rate!) then suddenly lose 50 in a row (so much for that 100% win rate, lulz). I edited my post to include mathz.

  • Ryuhi
    Ryuhi Member Posts: 3,893
    edited December 20

    I get that (including the edit) and I don't disagree with it. My comments were addressing a post that was trying to frame the 60/40 statistic as immutable. Basically correcting that each individual player will not uniformly fall into line with this statistic. There will be survivors who win more than 40% of the time, just like there will be ones that survive less than the average.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979

    Absolutely. I recall seeing a solo queue survivor having a 60% TEAM win rate (as in 3+ had to escape to count it as a win). That's pretty nuts, but certainly not the norm. Survivor potential is practically unlimited. Perfect survivor plays guarantee wins. Perfect killer plays can still have a loss. The game just comes down to how many mistakes the survivors make and how the killer can capitalize on them. So while the survivors have ALL the tools available to them to make them unbeatable, not many players can take advantage of all of those consistently.

  • hermitkermit
    hermitkermit Member Posts: 461
    edited December 20

    I was told once by someone on the forums when I had a question about my own “win rate” that the 40% is distributed between all survivors as a whole, not individual. Survivors as a whole have a 40% winrate, not a 40% winrate individually. Again this is just what was said to me, so I’m not necessarily saying it’s right or wrong. I haven’t been able to find any proof or clarification on the 40% being all survivors claim or the claim that the 40% is for individuals through the Devs, so if you have some I’d really appreciate it! As it’s a question I’ve asked before and gotten a different response to. Thank you for taking the time!

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Ah, tomato tomahto. Yes, I meant it in that sense although I probably could have said 'it's quite easy for the killer to regularly secure 1 kill'.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979
    edited December 20

    It's a fair question. The devs have made it pretty clear that the game is 4 individual survivors up against the killer, and each survivor gets their own specific win condition. The survivors don't actually win as a team or lose as a team. A survivor wins if they escape, and lose if they do not. This is also reinforced in the endgame screen. It never says survivors win or survivors lose. It is simply if you personally escaped or not. They dont keep tabs on "survivor team wins" because they don't win together. Otherwise, they would have to define what a win is for each side which they wholeheartedly avoid doing. The community has defined what they consider a win since the devs won't acknowledge what a win would be. For example, most of us say 3+ kills is a killer win, but the devs won't state this and instead refer to the match as the killer getting 3 kills.

    Now you may ask why they avoid defining team wins. That's because it would get really weird. Since the match is 4 individual 1 v 1 scenarios happening simultaneously, then a killer killing a single person would win that 1 v 1. That means a killer could get anywhere between 0 and 4 wins in a single match. Due to this, the devs abandoned the notion of trying to define what makes a team "win" and literally account for everything being the common denominator of whether or not a survivor escapes or not for the survivor, and whether there is a kill for the killer. That's why we get kill rates, not killer win rates. As for survivors, and escape is interchangeable with a win, but it's strictly at a per survivor basis. Otherwise, they would need to define what a survivor team win is. That's also why you don't see ties being reported in their stats, because it's impossible for 1 v 1 situations to have a tie. One side always wins, and one side always loses. If the survivors DID win as a team, then ties would be relevant and reported. Alas, they are not.

    Now, why did someone tell you otherwise? The community members sometimes have the view that the game IS a team vs team game, and that survivors all win or lose together, but the devs have clarified multiple times that this isn't the case. Regardless, some feel the designers are "wrong" and declare it is a team game. Regardless of those community member feelings, the designers of the game do their stats at an individual level.

  • Deathslinger1of2
    Deathslinger1of2 Member Posts: 146

    I think a lot of people have started to wake up to the fact that if you stop enjoying something you should take a break. I just came back from almost a 3-month break. There are a lot of things, though:

    -Breaks

    -Slugging

    -“Recycled” Killers(I genuinely enjoy Houndmaster though, I think she’s got a cool different power)

    -Game not being playtested(the bugs are insane)

    -Toxic player base 😭

  • Deathslinger1of2
    Deathslinger1of2 Member Posts: 146

    What do you think started the “slug meta”? Idk what started it

  • TheSingularity
    TheSingularity Member Posts: 262

    It's kind of a boring Winter event tbh. I can understand why a bit bigger of a decline is more likely.

  • crogers271
    crogers271 Member Posts: 1,913

    I don't get this comparison. Is there some necessity that they play that character? Because in DbD the players have to be split between two sides.

  • kit_mason
    kit_mason Member Posts: 301

    Why did you compare Peak for June 2024 to a specific moment in December 2024? Peak for November was almost 70k people, the decline is nowhere near as steep as you make it out to be. And if You compare to 2023, the game is actually perfectly stable, with an average of 31k vs 32k (last 30 days).

  • Ryuhi
    Ryuhi Member Posts: 3,893
    edited December 20

    When you play a fighting game competitively, you generally focus on mains. People tend to have "pocket" characters to deal with bad matchups, but it is not uncommon for even grand finals matches to have a 6/4 or worse matchup. The winner of the most recent SF3 Evo used a low tier character and stomped in matches that were heavily against him statistically. This also happens in many other games where people win finals with off-meta or straight up terrible matchups.

    The point is that seeing a 60/40 doesn't mean you already lost, or that you will lose 60% of your matches. It means that statistically you are at a relative disadvantage, but it gets blown out of proportion constantly in this community that anything less than 50/50 = "there is no chance might as well go next" defeatist mentality. Which of course also dooms the other survivors who do continue to try, and ironically often alters their chances to be a lot lower than 40%

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365
    edited December 20

    I told you what could be done but apparently you ignored it unless its in a different post that I didnt see. Make all info perks like kindred, bond and even Woo basekit. Those perks are not going to help players on comms much anyway. Also get rid of perks that are stricly solo que stompers like third seal. Add some sort of conversation system (not voice chat because that causes other problems). Essentially buff solo que massively until they are as close as possible to making the comms advantage of swfs irrelevant. Then if that makes overall kill rates go down too much then buff killer to compensate.

    As for your arguments about how "killer doesnt actually win more" im not even going respond beyond this sentence becauae that view is either clueless or disingenuous.

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Are you bonkers?

    Kindred is incredibly common in SWFs. Very strong perk due to killer aura reading.

    BHVR are not going to balance SWF and solos differently. They've said this repeatedly.

    Killer doesn't actually win more. Regardless of your sarcasm, it's a logical fact. That stat is, out of context, misleading.

    Solos don't need buffs. What solos do need is an easier way to find groups.

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365

    We're not trying to balance the game for the top .0001% that literally wins a tournament, we're trying to balance it for the player base overall ( or at least we should be.)

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365
    edited December 20

    Why do you keep saying "balance swf and solos differently" when thats not what I suggested. Are you confused? Well you must be to say that killers dont win more which is an objective fact. Solo's very much do need buffs because it is impossible to nerf swf. If swf also gets a small advantage from one of these buffs oh well, if swf and solo are in a closer place at the end then that is still better than before. Like I said, if you're so worried about too many buffs I said killer can then be buffed to compensate after we get swf and solo as close as possible.

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230

    Yeah see - it's that 'oh well' that stops this sort of discussion from being germane. Because it demonstrates that you don't really care.

    'Just buff killers' doesn't work. We've done this dance before. It's not that simple.

    I'm all for helping solos. But it cannot be done in a way that breaks the killer versus SWF balance. Survivors have a choice whether or not to group up. Killers do not have a choice whether or not to face SWFs.

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365

    If you're so worried about the kinded thing make it so this version of kindred only shows the survivors and not the killer or something. There is definitely a way to make solo survivor closer to swf but the problem is killer mains on these forums melt down because "survivor buffs!!" They want their easy wins against uncoordinated solo squads. If those like you and others on these forums refuse to even let there be a discussion about buffing solo survivor then just get used to more dc's and survivors going next on hook, it is the inevitable comsequence.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979

    I play almost exclusively solo queue as survivor (i don't have any friends who play dbd, so not much choice). While i mostly play killer, I don't really have issues in solo queue. What's the general issue? I feel it's the lack of communication with the other players, but generally, I feel that as long as you can hold your own and work to help the team, it isn't much of an issue. I go take protection hits, unhook, and so on. Heck, if I have a hook state to spare and someone is on death hook being chased, I'll go down intentionally just to get the death hook survivor time to get to safety. Sometimes I feel it's more like solo queue survivors just expect to go at it alone without interacting with the other survivors then everything falls apart because you essentially have two survivor teams working against each other.

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365

    The general issue is that survivors on comms have an advanatge and more and more the game is being balanced to assume that advantage exists. Therefore it gets tiring to play solo que and lose over and over again, especially if the killer uses something like "hex-third seal" which is basically only even useful against solo's. It is tiring to lose games again that you know you would have won if you had comms and it directly leads to dc's and hook suicides.

  • Equinox_One
    Equinox_One Member Posts: 230
    edited December 20

    That would be fine, and worth a suggestion. Good luck I guess.

    As to the rest of it - yup. This is what I'm talking about. You're inferring a negative intent about half the playerbase because…uh…you don't like them I guess? Most 'killer mains' want a balanced game. Easy games get really boring really fast.

    At the highest levels of play DbD is fairly balanced. The kill rate stats are misleading because it's easy to secure one kill and DbD is snowbally, plus there are a crapzillion AFKing or suiciding survivors.

    If you want to see just how hard it can be for killers against good groups, go watch Hardcore Survivor or some recent tournaments.

    Are there things that could be done to help solos? Sure.

    Know what the biggest is? Stopping hook suicides. I promise you, do that and you'll see kill rates decline. And before you start up again, I can be the nicest, most chill and sportsmanlike killer you can imagine and I still see a hook suicide in at least a third of my games, which is an auto loss for the survivors. The problem isn't (name a thing), the problem is that people have a penalty free way of bailing on games when they might lose, or just because they might not personally escape.

    I have people suiciding on first hook, at 3 gens, against Demo.

    Demo.

    This isn't a 'killer OP' thing, this is a design flaw.

    Go watch some Otz streams and see how many survivors suicide in games that aren't just winnable, they were ahead.

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365

    Stopping hook suicides will do the opposite. It will just make survivors stop playing or purposely throw the game. In my games most of the time when someone goes next on hook it is a game where there was literally no chance to win anyway, it is often easy to tell. There is no chance that stopping hook suicides will do anything about kill rates if anything it would potentially lead to a massive exodus of the games player base.

    ( now if you are talking about removing this AFTER the game is balanced better, that could be a different story.)

  • smurf
    smurf Member Posts: 497

    Killers typically have a win rate that's higher than survivors. Survivors have win rates on average below 40%. However, typical killers tend to get win/draw/loss distributions that land around 50/20/30. But that can vary per killer, per player, and per MMR/skill level.

    But the game is intentionally designed in a way so that killers are winning somewhat more often than they're losing on average.

  • Rogue11
    Rogue11 Member Posts: 1,482

    swfs don't escape much more than solo queue. solo queue players don't need more information outside of showing the anti-camp bar to the rest of the team. I don't need to be told my teammate with WoO is wasting the 3 somewhat useful pallets on <insert empty 2024 map>. Reverse the direction of map design so survivors actually have some agency in chases. you're overstating the strength of swfs to avoid that by every available metric, killers are overly advantaged.

  • RpTheHotrod
    RpTheHotrod Member Posts: 1,979
    edited December 20

    I feel It really comes down to the quality of the survivors in question.

    Like these here are all solo queue situations for me

    And getting a 4 man out with a face camping nurse

    https://www.reddit.com/r/deadbydaylight/s/iiPateoWPS

    You may say something along the lines that, "well, the survivors i get teamed up with in solo queue doesn't work like a team like that." but once again, that's comes down to the quality of the survivors. You cant balance around people's willingness or lack of willingness to work together. While comms for everyone would be helpful, sure, if you have survivors playing to help each other like they should be, you're fine in in solo queue. The problem is less solo queue and more players deciding to actively not work together. That's hard to fix.

  • doobiedo
    doobiedo Member Posts: 365

    If the game is balanced differently with better maps then you could be right, but the way the balance in the game has been going right now solo que does need to be buffed. And whatever you want to say about swf not always escaping even a 10% difference in escape rate is massive.

  • Rogue11
    Rogue11 Member Posts: 1,482

    matchmaking improvements would be the best buff to solo queue.

    other than the anti-camp bar and nerfing some killer perks that only exist to crush solo players (knock out), survivors have enough basekit info available.