Did the pallet density changes drop the kill rates by 5%? (Official stats included)

A few things are unknown and create potential math issues:

Average kill rate of a killer - is this the overall kill rate, or the kill rate when all the killer kill rates are averaged

Hatch escapes - I'm not sure if BHVR has ever clarified if hatch escapes are counted or discarded in the data set (is it a null value). The first data set might not count them while the second data set does

Low scoring matches - the earlier data set excludes low scoring matches, though the exact mechanics are unspecified (for example AFK killers are reportedly a huge problem in some areas, not excluding those would drop the kill rate). We also have the issue that when BHVR releases kill rates they usually exclude some things, like DCs, while the latter look to just be a complete picture. BHVR doesn't seem to be making any exclusions in their numbers, potentially the reason they aren't giving us kill rate numbers and just totals.

2024 - The earlier data set goes back into 2024, while the newer set only looks at 2025

How did the average kill rate go down by 5%? Was this the actual reason why the pallet density changes got nerfed in November 2025?

Mathematically I doubt this is possible. Not only is there only a single month of data compared to 10, but the summer months had a lot more players. The game wouldn't just have to be tilted to survivors, it would have had to have been overwhelming to get a number to move that far.

Are the pallet changes going to be monitored and changed, until the average kill rate goes back up to at least 60%?

They always do that, but they also talk about the kill rate number as a general target, not an absolute. We don't know for certain which matches BHVR actually considers into their kill rate equations, or what other factors they look into.

Edit to add: Also looking at the new numbers, it's not specified whether that is just the 4v1 matches or everything, including events and mods. You're looking at about 855k trials (what's with BHVR forgetting their terminology and calling things matches?) played a day - given their past statements about total playrates, I think the new numbers are not just the "pure" 4v1 that things are balanced off of.