The "70-80 hours" (1 hour a day) for the rift, the maths.
Preface
OK, this is just as best as I can work it out fairly.
First, the amount of fragments required is 700. 70 tiers at 10 fragments apiece.
Challenge fragments (A realistic view)
First we must deduct the challenge rewards.
Tier 1 awards 93 shards. (83 for challenges, 10 for completion.)
The leaked Tier 4 awards 85 shards. (75 for challenges, 10 for completion)
Let's be really generous and say that tier 2 and 3 are equal to 1, which is more challenges but less master, and call them 83 shards too.
So for our player who lives in the real world, there are 9 tier 4 challenges that look reasonably possible. (As in they may take a few attempts, but are not a 0.0001% situation that will almost certainly not occur in a 4 week period.) Let's be generous and say you did all of those ones, and in this case we're ignoring where "impossible" challenges prevent access to possible ones.
That gives us 83+83+83+45=294 shards.
That leaves 406 shards to earn through XP alone.
Player XP fragments
Each fragment takes 800 experience.
At 406 fragments, that's 324,800 XP to finish levelling up your rift.
Each match awards 1 XP per second spent in the game. I can't find anywhere on the wiki which confirms if there is an actual cap, though for the sake of the maths let's say there isn't. (Most people report around 600 XP for a ~10 min match so at the very least, an average match doesn't hit a cap.)
There is also 600 XP for the first game bonus if you play one match of both sides. As the pass runs for 70 days, let's say you play both sides each day to earn that, that's 70x600=42,000XP.
Which leaves us with actual game time; 324,800-42,000=282,800XP
282,800 seconds in matches = 4713 minutes = 78.5 hours.
Conclusion
The devs say the rift was aimed at a player who plays 70-80 hours, or one hour per day.
If a player completes every challenge that isn't ridiculously impossible, AND they get the XP bonus from both sides every single day, it takes 78.5 hours of in-match time to max out the rift.
That translates to significantly longer if we're a rational human being who knows queue times don't work like that.
Even if we assume long 10 minute games every single time with a 3 minute queue, which is far from an overestimation, that's bumping the number up to 102.05 hours already.
TLDR:
If we're lenient on every possible factor that could go in your favour, the rift takes 78.5 hours of in-match time. With a reasonable, but still generous, estimation of queue times included, it takes 102.05 hours of in-game time to complete the rift.
Comments
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I think it seems about right. If youre more casual than an hour a day, you really arent putting in the time to complete the grind.
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That said, I still believe they need to fix tier 4 of the rift because it's frankly disgusting.
They SHOULD have next patch before the pass ends to correct it at the very least
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It takes me between 4 and 6 hours to earn one tier on the Rift.
With 406 Fragments to earn via XP alone, that's about 40 tiers on the Rift. If I take the average and say it takes me 5 hours to earn each tier, then it'll take me 3 hours of playtime per day to earn the 40 tiers on the Rift not covered by the challenges. In theory, I'll be earning the Fragments from challenges during those 3 hours per day, but if there are any challenges I can't complete, then the amount of time needed to complete the Rift increases.
That's awful. Really awful. Three hours per day if I play every single day. Which, like most normal people, I can't. If there are two days during the week where I can't play then that's 6 hours to make up for.
(I'm pretty sure my math here is right. The amount of time it takes me to earn one tier on the Rift isn't in question, because I've timed that. I think my math is right, but I've been sick and my head is foggy, so be nice if I did it wrong.)
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They have stated multiple times the tier 4 challenges are placeholders and are subject to change and more than likely will. As for the "grind" i don't really find it awful as you're not forced to buy the pass at all. You can literally buy it the day before it disappears if you want. Also i think they said somewhere that you should get around 350 fragments from the rift challenges if you complete them all.
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That's 35/70 tiers. So half, still gross to make people play that many hours.
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There have been PLENTY of things that they've stated are "placeholder only and subject to change" that have come out exactly that way despite feedback, or with very minimal number tweaks. While they may change it, I still think it's important to reinforce that their current iteration is terrible until we see confirmation that they WILL be changed.
In regards to the grind, I don't think the overall time commitment is THAT bad, considering you can buy the remaining levels, and only that would be the net cost of your pass due to the 1k auric cell refund through levels. That said, it is still a money making strategy capitalising off the predatory fear of missing out which I detest. They say the average player should reasonably be able to complete the pass, well the average player isn't playing 1-2 hours every single day, and when they are it's even less likely that they play both killer and survivor every single night. If they aren't that adds even more hours on.
They said that their calculations are aimed at the pass being the average player playing an hour a day. They just forgot to leave out "The average player must have 0 queue times for this to be true, and they must use every available boost to XP, and complete every single challenge for this to be true."
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Honestly, even with barely any queue times as survivor, trying to get a level a day is taking me closer to 3 hours a day. If i could just play an hour a day that'd be great, but i don't think that's even close to realistic.
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I think the issue is the loophole of their post saying 1 hour of GAMEPLAY*.
If they choose to not consider all the queue times, and downtime for SWF waiting for a game to end etc, it just barely comes close to their estimate.
Sadly so many things included in this are going to absolute extremes for perfect efficiency.
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Im gonna laugh when this thing is over with aton of people having completed the rift. As it stands, plenty of people are already at rift lvl 20-30 after only 10 days, with 60 days to go.
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Honestly I don't think the rift could have even be completed without the challenges to help the grind.
Pity most of them are locked behind a time frame.
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I'd love it shortened or at least allow us to repeat challanges for the rift progress.
That amount of time is huge.
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Theres actually people who are already at around rift lvl 45.
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Plenty of people ARE at 20-30, but you're ignoring that 2+ weeks of XP progress was accidentally added to everyone's accounts. You can't base conclusions of how fast the rift goes off people who started in the double digits of levels.
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and the people who are over halfway done?
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I'm sure a lot of people are going to be finished the rift. Hardcore players are 100% guaranteed to finish with the amount they play, but i think even for the people who are willing to play 4-6 hours a day, by the end of the rift they'll be finished but they'll be completely exhausted and won't want to touch the game until the next rift. If they played a decent amount before, they probably would stop with because of the rift they added unless they start changing it by tome 2.
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Why do you assume people would pay to finish half of it and not ALL of it?
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Should obviously not be considered in a system described by the devs as designed for a casual player to be able to complete. We all know there's people who don't have jobs, they're not the issue.
Why would you pay to get to the end of something that's going until December. Sure, people want to skip ahead but there's no point earning challenge fragments a month down the line that are going to just be excess.
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I love stats so seeing this "brings a smile to my face". I think you've done an extremely good job with this.
If what you say is correct then that's a lot longer than I expected.
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Heres a Pig main, someone who plays Pig 95% of the time, so would have no incentive to buy half the rift lvls for cosmetics that arnt for Pig...at lvl 47 as of the end of yesterday's stream. Considering how much of that must be PURELY from XP... Id say its definitely possible for the average person to do it with 4 tomes worth of fragments.
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- Plenty of people like cosmetics even if they aren't for a character they play all the time.
- Charms work on EVERY killer and survivor.
- THAT'S A STREAMER WHO STREAMS FOR 6+ HOURS EVERY DAY.
How could you consider someone who is basically playing the game as a job! They're already playing the game 6 times as much as what the devs estimate, and that's only considering what they stream when many streamers play off-stream as well. When streaming you also play back to back to back games with as little downtime as possible, most people with normal lives stop, browse the internet, eat on occasion.
If anything, playing 6 times as much for a week and a half they should be nearing the end of the rift.
Again, as you said, they're only playing Pig, or killer, which means more game time per queue as well. A survivor who is likely to die earlier in a match has significantly more queue time per hour when their matches are shorter.
We're discussing whether the rift reflects the casual player that the devs said it was aimed for, not someone who treats the game as a job.
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It still shows that its plenty possible though. The example is someone who isnt BARELY making it, but absolutely CRUSHING it. If he can manage that with 1 Tome worth of fragments, I dont see it as impossible for others to do it with 4.
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Completing a single tier takes 8,000 xp. Assuming 500 xp per match. It takes 16 matches to complete a tier. Multiple that by 70 tiers and you get 1,120 matches. Assuming you can get in 4 matches an hour that's 280 hours of game time or 4 hours a day. These numbers are without the archive challenges.
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"Honestly I don't think the rift could have even be completed without the challenges to help the grind.
Pity most of them are locked behind a time frame."
This was a comment up above, and why I had brought up that plenty of people are right on track. Theres actually a forum thread with TONS of ppl sharing their current rift lvl and showing theyre right on track.
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Should be considered that all XP from 12 days prior to the Rift going live was counted towards everyone's progress. So it may seem faster than it really would be in future Rifts.
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