Why is it 2 kills/ 2 escapes?

It's not that it's the "goal" in the sense that they want every game to have those results. It's the "goal" in terms of the baseline (average), or in other words, in terms of balance. 50/50 down the middle, which is, ideally, where balance should land.

@Peanits addressed this quite recently. If you are getting an average score (in this case 2K most games), you are at the rank you belong in based on your average skill. If you are performing above the baseline, you have earned a rank up. If you are performing below baseline, you get the depip.

At red ranks where pipping requires 13 points. A 2 kill 2 escape game would result in a black pip or a depip 9/10 times. In order to advance in this rank you have to, by BHVR's definition of balance, overperform. Thus whatever killer you choose to play will show up on the Devs stats as in need of slight tweaking.

Being that Nurse was the most popular killer at red ranks, she ofcourse would require 3-4k a match to even be there. Because she is hard to play, low rank baby Nurses usually don't perform very well balancing the numbers. But because of being the killer of choice at a rank that requires more than 2k to advance in, she was overperforming and in need nerfs slight tweaks.

Spirit, not requiring to use her power to kill low rank survivors and being effective enough to get over 2k in red ranks to rank up, is next on the chopping block. All because BHVR has two conflicting ideologies.

The issue trying to balance the game on two kills two escape is that matches are not played on even fields.

Ranking System

The ranking system itself isn't a measurement of skill but how much time you put into the game. Anonther being who you are matched against. If you constantly play against bad players you will rank up even if your skill level doesn't reflect that rank. You also have good players stay at lower ranks playing against bad players.

Matchmaking

Matchmaking pairs killers and survivors with varying ranks up to 6 in either direction. In worst case you could have survivors up to 12 ranks apart. A rank 4 killer could potentialy face four rank 10s and vice versa. It is easy to see the outcome of these types of matches.

Why 2k 2 escape?

Because it's easy. If you ignore whats behind your data it's the most logical way of balancing. Devs have said they don't purely look at the escape rate but what else do they have?

Solution?

Individual skill needs to be messured. Either this is something that can be tracked in the background or in a way the player can see. If a player can 4k with every killer then its the player that is good and not the killer they choose. There are systems already out there that measure player skill level that could be adopted. One of those is the Elo rating system that rewards points based on who you face and their score compaired to yours.

You got better or you got lucky. There's a lot of RNG in this game that can have a big impact on the game's outcome. There are also killers that make ranking up a lot easier than others.

The ranking system now is a bit of a joke when comparing it to other games, like in Quake where the skill cap is so much higher that your rank is deserved. Here, you can rank up on either side as long as you have a decent understanding of the mechanics and play a lot. I'm not saying that rank doesn't matter, but it's not a true indicator of skill.

It's average, not mode.

Most games will not be 2k's even if 2k is the average.

If I had to guess the mode would be 4k.

Not because most games are 4k's, but because I would expect a more even split between 0k's 1k's, 2k's and 3k's for a variety of reasons, while a 4k is the result of an early snowball. So while a losing Killer could lose but still get a kill or 2 in anyways a winning Killer will almost always 4k, especially if they slug.

This is disproportionately true in low ranks, but even in red ranks its hard to win a 3v1 against almost any red rank Killer, meaning that if their team has a weak link that is quickly eliminated then a 4k is almost guaranteed, but when the team is escaping the Killer will sometimes secure a 1k anyways, but sometimes won't for a 0k.

Either way that makes a 4k the most common result even if it isn't the majority of games.

It doesn't make sense to describe an individual player as overpreforming regardless of how consistent they may be.

The whole idea behind an individual Killer or Survivor perk or whatever overpreforming is that people that take it do better than those that do not, but for an individual that is doing well it's often just due to a Skill difference rather than a mechanical advantage, in which case you would also see a lot of lesser skilled players who are NOT preforming as well.

However when checking a Killer as a whole you should ideally expect Skill to even out, since even if only the best players were using the Killer they should also be facing the best Survivors.

While there are still flaws here with the execution, the core idea of it evening out to a 2k average eventually is not itself the flaw, or rather concluding balance decisions given that ideal isn't anyways. The ideal itself has issues but it's more to do with the specific number chosen and not anything to do with the fundamental part you are trying to criticize.

My ACTUAL counter argument is that while neither of those individually would be happening every match.

Both of those combined WOULD be happening every match.

Meaning that 1-3k's wouldn't ever happen since it would throw it off such that the winrates for each role would be different.

I doubt its the only stat they look at, or even the primary stat. Its just the stat they've shared and that the community has latched on to.

That issue isn't with the 2k balance ideal. It's a problem with the emblem system.

except thats bs. You an derank with a 2k+ especailly at r1 , because it isn't actually balanced around kills. Namely the gatekeeper emblem will constanly ######### you over because survivors control the speed of the generator completion. EVEN if you play 100% gen defense you can't stop gens from being completed and you absoluteley won't win agains good survivors.

I'm not saying its bad game design or wrong. I'm just saying its bs to claim the current game play is balanced.

Personally I don't think it needs to be. Survivor eblems just need to be changed.

I think two kills two escapes is fair for both sides. Also, if survivors never had a chance of surviving what would be the point of playing that role?

In general if I'm playing killer 2:2 is a draw, 3:1 in either direction is a win, and 4:0 is just a landslide victory (either big screwups were made or the skill level was matched really poorly).

2:2 is a balancing goal which is their attempt at what an "even match" looks like. That being said, the current ranking system is garbage, where you can get chased for 3 gens and get silver evader. 2 survivor kills themselves on first hook? There goes your double pip. All in all the emblems have been getting better (at least survivor side with pallet stuns being added to boldness emblem etc) but they have a LONG way to go.