http://dbd.game/killswitch
Is DBD just following Deathgarden?
With the recent and upcoming changes BHVR is actually well on their way to ruining and possible ending their second game in less than a year if they aren't careful? I don't wish anyone to fail or want to see anyone out of a job. But there is a point where you have to admit maybe you don't know how to best make your own game(s) successful.
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I feel like it’s all about the money now. A lot of streamers (some even fog whisperers) think the game was in a better state 3 years ago. Not really as far as “balance” more so of the mindset the devs had about trying to make the game more fun and les about a quick dollar.
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Didn't Deathgarden barely last a few months? DBD is years old and still going strong. Please stop the overly dramatic hot takes.
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Short answer No. Long answer: Nö
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I can't know, but i don't see that being the case.
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Going strong is open to interpretation. That's like saying WoW is still going strong because it has 5 million players. Failing to see it had 11 million at one point.
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Yeah, stepping down from 150 mil a month from subs, to 65 isnt exactly going strong. It's still a shitload of money, but nowhere near what it used to be.
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Because 3 years ago it was so batlantly obvious what was imbalanced and wrong with this game that it was easy to see it and fix it, its very easy to diagnosis an amputated arm but is not easy to diagnosis pancreatic cancer.
Also the community wasnt as toxic and stubborn as it is now, the Spirit changes were something trivial and some people went ballistic over them, calling the Killer useless and the game dead, you cant touch anything without people going crazy, Ruin nerf? the game is dead, DS nerf? game is dead, Insta heals nerf? game dead again, Oni flicker? game is as dead as Napoleon, go figure... And we still have to see keys and moris nerfed which I hope they come at the same time because the forums will be like Vietnam war.
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I mean just going off steam charts which doesn't even include GRDK users but also doesn't include xbox, PS4 or switch users, The game has averaged around 20k players with peaks between 30-40k average.
Yes there have been a few months where it dropped by 6 months ago it was an average of 19k average and a peak of 28k. In December it was 23k average and 38k peak. Within the last 30 days alone its 24k average and 44.5k peak.
Now just compare this to Death Gardens Highest point being 1k average players with 6k peak.
Basically you can't compare the two. All DBD has ever done is grown, Death Garden just never caught on. And to compare it to WoW which actually has a decrease in play base is a dishonor, since DBD actually grows in numbers currently. Yes, one day this game is going to fail, but I don't foresee that within the next year.
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How many people BOUGHT dbd, and dont play it anymore. If there's 150k copies sold, and only 20k players, it says a lot.
It actually says that it's not growing, but remaining stagnat/losing people except when it's free.
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I don't know if you played WoW at all, especially during it's peak but you could almost see that same theory in the forums at that time.
During WotLK the game had it's highest sub count ever and was growing, but they made numerous changes that the player base could see was bad for the long term life of the game. So at that time people said, "WoW is dying I don't think so the player base grew this year." So yes it was growing, but that was the end of the growing and then it started to slide.
Think about it this way, DBD will have that slide, even you admit that I think? And whenever that slide starts they don't have nearly the amount of players that WoW did. Blizzard could afford to lose half their player base and still have 6 million subs. If DBD lose half of their average you're looking at 12k players how do you think that will be for the queues and the game health?
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That might be far the most skewed way to determines a games success I've ever heard of. I've bought this game with all of its DLC 4 or 5 times over now. I actually am sitting on 3 sets of this game with all of DLC right now. I give these keys to new friends, streamers to do giveaways, or friends of friends.
A stat like how many copies sold just tells you how many people bought the game? How many of those copies were bought as gifts that people never decided to start playing? how many of those copies were returned? Is that number based of just one system or them all? (Yes I know your 150k number is made up as I believe DBD hit 3 million copies sold a year or so back).
My point is you shouldn't judge a game on the number of copies sold, it needs to be based on how many people are playing over a time period. Yes I would be more concerned about the games state if I was seeing a decline in the number of players playing the game. But the stat's don't back that up, they actually counter it. The game actually has grown an average of 666.7 players a month.
Sure that is no Fortnite success, but its not actually a failing number either. I actually find it funny that the average player base increased by 666 players each month for the last 6 months.
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In regards to the growth, again if you wanna be a numbers person check WoW subscriptions numbers around the period I described. Numbers were growing despite competition coming out so people claimed WoW was better than ever... til about 6 kJ this later when the decline started because of poor decision making.
The number of things BHVR has done to the players, and I’m not talking anything specific to either side like Killer buffs or nerfs or survivor perk nerfs, just the whole game player base is growing. There will be a final straw that starts the decline, I fear it’s coming sooner rather than later, and again unlike some other games DBD does not have a big enough playerbase to absorb any significant decljne. The remaining player base may not be able to keep the game alive long enough to right the shop by that point.
Think I’m over dramatic if you want but I’ve seen it happen before and I havw seen these same discussions from both sides at that time. If we don’t learn from history, yada yada
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I mean there's more MMORPGs out there. DBD has no direct competition for players to pivot to. So if you want an online asymmetrical experience, you will have to deal with the bs or just not play the genre entirely.
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All online multiple player games are doomed to fail. They are never going to be able to grow and keep the attention they had when they started out. That is just a fact of gaming.
And yes, I do agree, this game will start to decline one day. My point was I don't see that decline happening within the next 12 months. Could I be wrong? Of course, its just I feel like the game is going in the right direction. Which may shock some people because I am a killer main.
So we now we have to talk about changes they have made recently. I feel like this is less of an issue than these forums make it seem. I know my friends and all have been loving these changes. I play spirit, I play her nearly perkless because I find her power OP. I wanted them to remove collision, I wanted them to remove prayer beads, I wanted them to add a vault animation, and I even wanted them to make it so you hear her phasing sound when in her TR. They did 3 of those things.
Next I honestly didn't mind ruin, I honestly didn't mind Dying light, I honestly didn't mind Pop, I honestly didn't mind Sloppy. Do you know what I disliked, Ruin+Pop and it was even worse when people felt the need to stack more slow downs. I love that they made it so slow down perks don't stack as well. I love that they have stated if they make any new slow down perks, its going to be with the thought of all other slow down perks in mind.
We see the changes differently, We see the game differently. You see it making changes that you think are bad for its health. I see changes that I think are good for it's health. Only time will tell us which one is right.
But as I said, the game is going to fail, I even suspect that it will fail before it hits it's 10 year mark. But given the game wasn't designed to make it 4 years, ######### I don't think it was designed to make it 2 years. It's already doubled the time it should have lived.
I've put 1.5k hours into this game, even if it failed tomorrow, It's earned my money, I don't feel like its been wasted.
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Oof. 3 million sold and 20k players.
So for your "I bought multiple copies" theory, everyone would have had to buy 150 copies.
Or 2 and a half million copies were bought and never played....
Somewhere that doesnt add up. Even if everyone bought 5 copies. Those 2 mil and change others went somewhere.
Even with people buying 2, 3, 4 copies, it's a drastically lower number than it should be for a "thriving, growing game".
And yeah, I randomly chose 150k to give some leniency to what's happened, assuming maybe even 500k were sold. But 3 mil copies sold, it hurts.
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You are completely leaving out the fact that the 3 million copies account for all copies of the game sold across multiple platforms over the multiple years. Where as my 20k stat literally only accounts for a portion of players on one system. Yes a majority portion, but still not all players on this one system. Nor does it account for any other system.
The next thing you have to take into account, not every plays the game forever, it gains new players every month and loses old players. For example, even though I think I bought this game back in the start of 2017, I never even played it really until the middle of 2018 start of 2019.
How many copies you sell just tells you how much money you've made, how many people keep coming back to your game is what matters. Now to your benefit, yes, an average growth of 666 players a month isn't all that impressive, but it is a growth.
Which back to stats. if you back to 2018 January thru June the average growth per month was 813.3 players a month... Jump to January 2019 to June 2019 the average growth was actually 297.2 players a month.
Meaning yes from 2018 to 2019, the growth started to decline, but the player base stayed about the same. Then in late 2019 the growth started to increase. To get the actual effect of how there most recent changed have impacted the games health, we will have to wait until July to do a 6 month look back period.
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Player count is still rising and never really dips down too much regardless of the changes made, and when it does dip down it comes back stronger than before : https://steamcharts.com/app/381210
Versus Deathgarden that had 1 good month and just keeps crashing https://steamcharts.com/app/555440
This isn't even accounting for the popularity of the game on consoles.
I don't agree with the state of the game right now personally with the balance changes, and god awful issues since dedicated servers launched, but it's not Deathgarden levels of running the game into the ground at all.
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The same has been said by many over the years. Any and all changes to the game has been met with those who believe they know what's best for the game and that the devs don't but at the same time the game has stayed just as popular as players have always adapted.
What it comes down to is what one feels over what is best for the user base.
Now the most vocal are always those who dislike changes and they always divide players on social platforms. What we have to remember is that these platforms are a tiny fraction of the overall user base.
Deathgarden never gained any traction from the get go no matter what they tried as the original concept just wasn't that great and with the rework it just changed the objective from trying to win by doing a goal to a hiding simulator and escaping. They never seemed to have a clear vision from ghe get go and it changed so much over time but in the end it was too late. The problem with Deathgarden is they listened to much to those who complained about certain aspects from the get go. It was no where ready for release and the players leaving showed that.
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