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You all know you're not hitting 4% THAT much.

Blindninja
Blindninja Member Posts: 462
edited March 2021 in General Discussions

I mean cmon guys. Seems like every other game I'm down to two of you left alive and both down, I hook one 9f you and if its his first hook, sure enough I can even call it ahead of time, walk away and boom! Guess who's free and pretending he hit a kobe 4%.

Now I know deliverance is a thing but I check, and 9 times out of 10, no deliverance. I mean cmon guys. What's going on? Just spill it. What's really up with you guys? Cmon you can admit it here. You won't get into any trouble.

Comments

  • brokedownpalace
    brokedownpalace Member Posts: 8,792

    I'm pretty sure I get it less than .1% of the time so it probably evens out with the people who get it 10%.

    The math checks out, trust me.

  • bm33
    bm33 Member Posts: 8,157

    Entity isn't done eating my hope. Or Entity knows I was trying to give last person hatch and said nope.

  • AsherFrost
    AsherFrost Member Posts: 2,340

    I would not really be surprised to find that the 4% is increased to 20% when there are only 2 of left

  • Mdawgu
    Mdawgu Member Posts: 408

    Got it twice in a row the other day, however most of the time when you’d try it the match is lost anyway.

  • AChaoticKiller
    AChaoticKiller Member Posts: 3,104

    I once had a week where i could have sworn i unhooked myself over 10 times. i didn't even play that many matches it was about 3-5 survivor games a day and the rest i played killer.

  • Blindninja
    Blindninja Member Posts: 462

    You know what that's a good point and I didn't really think about it that way but you are right

  • SentinelCaptain
    SentinelCaptain Member Posts: 234

    This just makes it that much more disappointing when I used to run Slippery Meat and burnt salty lips and all 6 chances would fail. 😂

  • MadLordJack
    MadLordJack Member Posts: 8,814

    The Kobe chance is definitely higher than 4%. It's far too common for the survivors to yeet off the hook than a 1-in-25 chance to be the reason.

  • Blindninja
    Blindninja Member Posts: 462

    And yet another one tonight! As soon as I called it. Cmon man!

  • FFirebrandd
    FFirebrandd Member Posts: 2,445

    Fun fact, if 1 Survivor takes all 3 4% chances, they get off 11.5% of the time. 2 go for it? 21.7% chance that one gets it. If all 4 have to go for it? You're looking at a 38.7% chance of at least one getting off.

    A 4% chance stacks up real quick when you've got a lot of chances at it.

    So... my guess would be either confirmation bias, or you very frequently put Survivors in a position where that 4% is their only shot. They take it and it happens so much that you're gonna get some to get it.

  • FFirebrandd
    FFirebrandd Member Posts: 2,445

    Pretty sure it isn't.

    What you are forgetting is that Survivors each have 3 shots at that 4% chance. The odds of the Survivor getting off on at least 1 of those 3 attempts is 11.5%. If you tried to Kobe every game, you'd get off about once every 10 games. Those aren't good odds mind you, but they aren't terrible either.

  • yeah they kobe off a lot of times. theres no real point to deliverance.

  • MadLordJack
    MadLordJack Member Posts: 8,814
    edited March 2021

    I have people unhooking themselves every third or fourth trial, and not while using all 3 potential chances per individual. Mostly it happens while I'm snowballing, which makes perfect sense (that's when you're likely to sacrifice some hook time for a chance to escape), but what doesn't make sense is the alarming regularity and borderline predictability, to the point that I now expect it as much as an unbreakable and am not dissapointed.

    Now, I don't think there's some secret code that boosts the chances based on injures or downs or whatever, I'm not that paranoid, but I do think the chance per attempt is higher than 4%.

    Edit: And to clarify, I do t se emany luck offerrings, slippery meats, or Deliverences.

  • Blindninja
    Blindninja Member Posts: 462

    100% agree. Evwn with 3 attempts it seems fishy. You can predict it like clockwork. They are bullshitters imo. Which most survs are anyway especially at red ranks.