Kill Rates And Data
Kill Rates were released by BHVR for the month of December to January and I can firmly say that all of my stances on the game remained unchanged from it.
When the developers state the “Data does not paint the full picture” meanwhile I’ve seen people go and make extremely long threads about how the game is “X-sided” and “there are clear bias with BHVR” when in reality I think it’s furtherest from it.
Data can be helpful but it also ignores the bigger picture, like the developers said.
Skull Merchant has the highest Kill Rate in the game, but when you look at Skull Merchant’s design she isn’t as threatening compared to other Killers; Nurse and Blight are still insanely strong, even after being nerf, and realistically they should have the highest but they don’t.
So why is this?
The data is polluted. To put it bluntly, Skull Merchant has a Killer with generally unfun gameplay for both sides, which often results in Survivors offing themselves on hook as early as they can. Sometimes people DC, but offing yourself on hook does not inherently remove that match from the statistics.
I feel like something as simple as this shows that the data is far more nuanced than people give it credit for, which is why I stopped relying on Kill Rates and started just coming to my own conclusions based on experience and foresight.
Comments
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And yet, to your specific example, the conclusion is the same either way.
SM is a problem.
Much like the overall data shows that Killers are killing at a high rate.
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I also think killers that are sparing survivors are a big problem with the data too. The kill rate would be higher if they didn't or couldn't, but by how much?
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Yeah, we cannot draw conclusions based solely on kill rates.
My main is a good example. Freddy has the fourth highest kill rate in the game, but that definitely doesn't mean he needs a nerf. It doesn't make him stronger than killers like Spirit or Wesker, who have lower kill rates.
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I agree. There’s way too much going on behind the scenes and I believe this is why BHVR rarely releases them.
It doesn’t give the full picture and just makes it so anyone can twist it to fit whichever narrative suits them.
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It probably balances out with all the games that could’ve been a win for the survivors but one of them ended up throwing or people memeing around.
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The data explains why many survivors are saying the game is unfun now. It's not just about percentages, when you inherently give one side an advantage by design with the 60% kill rate it makes the actual experience of gameplay for the other feel very stressful and hopeless lots of the time. I don't understand why BHVR wants killers to have such an advantage when survivors are 80% of the playerbase.
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I blame this on you and @CountOfTheFog because you are the only Freddy mains that I know of. You guys must simply play too good for the rest of us.
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I never said Skull Merchant wasn’t a problem.
My point is that people can and will ignore nuance to use data to fit whatever they feel fit.
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Also here's a theory from Otz about Doctor's low kill rate that i found really interesting
And believable too. My first match as a survivor in this game was actually against a doctor bot (back in 2021)
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It would be a lower kill rate because every other game a random isn't being efficient or straight up trolls survivors from ever being able to win.
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The data is a piece of the broader picture. It's not the end all be all, nor do we have enough context to draw any definitive conclusions from it. The most specific data we got was escape rates loosely separated by SWF and MMR. But again, we lack a lot of context with that.
I don't mean to be overly critical, because any transparency at all about what happens under the hood is a step in the right direction. But they released just enough data without context to allow people to draw whatever conclusion they want from it. I'm not sure why they draw the line at what they released.
Sure, it would be a expensive, but being able to view and sort the data by kill rate, MMR, avg hook count, killer, etc, would be awesome. You already have the database portion.
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Knowing just how broken Nurse is and .... seeing SM's kill rate....
I really dont want to be mean, but it says A LOT about the majority of the killer player base. Her kill rate isnt just average.... its one of the lowest as well. And its been that way twice for stats.
Eye opening
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The data isn't polluted. This game has completely useless tier lists, based off of 0.001% of the playerbase. The tier lists are only good for theory-crafting, and have zero relevance or usefulness in public games.
Even if Skull Merchant was deleted from the official stats, there are still a whole bunch of killers ahead of Nurse in kill rates. The actual problem with Skull Merchant is the same problem Sadako had before her recent rework, where survivors just aren't doing the counterplay. Many people claim Skull Merchant "gets random hits across the map", when in reality she's a trap killer, and the survivors are supposed to be at least attempting to avoid traps when they aren't in a chase. But survivors are still just running around everywhere, getting slapped by traps.
If anything, I'm surprised BHVR hasn't totally gotten rid of stealth mode drones, because there are too many people that just refuse to even try to avoid them.
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Hahaha, maybe we are out there absolutely carrying this killer!
But me and @CountOfTheFog can't take all the credit, my friend. We also have: @QwQw , @The_Krapper , @KaTo1337 , @ili, @M1_gamer , and @edgarpoop .
Post edited by GeneralV on3 -
I think that could be part of it but I also think it's also because he is free on console and so new players play him a lot. He's rather difficult to master yet he has a pretty high pick rate so most people playing him don't know how to play him right.
And even then when you do know how to play him, he still sucks. He's a low tier killer and I feel Otz exaggerates how good Doctor is. I'm really not surprised he has the lowest kill rate.
I don't think these bots are anywhere near common enough to lower his kill rate that much. And if it did, it's probably only a couple of percentage so he still would be the lowest anyway.
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Count me among the cult of Freddy. I got a Freddy win streak up to 22 a couple months ago. Might take another shot at it and see how far I get.
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Edited!
I didn't know you were one of us, my friend. Good to have ya here!
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I think survivors killing themselves on first hook is a problem also. Which do you see more often, a killer letting someone go or a teammate killing on first hook? Those games with three survivors at 4 or 5 gens don’t usually do well.
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Call me cynical, but I don't like how, for 90% of the year, I'll be told that the anec-data proves survivor is OP, while in the other 10% of the year, I'll be told that the actual data 'doesn't paint the full picture'.
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Now, this is surprisingly wholesome. I don't know why but I like seeing that so many dedicated players main Freddy knowing full well that he's in a tough spot.
Maybe it's time I switch the chainsaw for the glove for a while. I've been playing him quite a lot recently and I honestly enjoyed it more than I'd expect.
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I can't speak for all of us, but I can tell ya I'll never abandon this killer, regardless of what they do to him. If his rework in 2019 wasn't enough for me to drop him, then nothing is.
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I mean, the survivor base is also losing a ton to Pig, Sadako, and Dredge.
The killers known to prey on survivors being bad are top kill rates.
I think that is "eye opening" for the majority of survivor players.
Also I get your idea with Nurse, but why SM? She's easy to play and not particularly strong. Just curious.
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Well... That happened. These guys played well until they didn't. This must be why Freddy's kill rate is so high.
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If people are dying to "bad killers" at a high rate but not the most broken killer in the game, its kind of telling where the majority of killers sit in terms of skill expression.
We would see a mass amount of nurses if this wasn't the case, and her kill rate wouldn't be one of the lowest twice in a row now. Saying she is "hard to play" is really just a skill issue and proving my point. "Hard to play" is only a half truth for her, your first 10 or so prestige might be hard to play, after that she is easier than every other killer in the game (because of what she can do). You get the opposite effect with other killers they become more hard to play earlier because you can't do what nurse can do.
So you can call those killers bad, but if those killers are so bad then the best killer shouldn't be under performing them. It means that the majority of the killers that play the game are just as eye opening as everyone who talks about survivors that play this game.
I bring up SM because there are similar attitudes of giving up versus nurse. But as we can see, nowhere near her kill rate, in fact the opposite.
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If SM is anything to go off, probably survivors just "going next" and giving up on hook because he's "boring".
If the other killers in the top are anything to go off off, its because he preys on survivors not knowing how to counterplay him and not bothering to learn.
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I'm sorry but, people dying to bad killers says more about the survivors than the killers. A good killer on a bad character will still lose to good survivors.
People not winning with a good character speaks to the killer player yeah that I can agree with.
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Thats my point you are saying survivors are.... dying to bad killers. At high rates no less, so they are under performing.
Personally I am not sold on Freddy, Pig, or Dredge being bad killers. Never seen a streak of games where they just are memes that everyone makes them out to be, but that's besides the point.
If survivors are dying less to the best killer in the game, the majority of killers that play the game aren't as good as they think they are.
We would see nurse much higher, if not the highest. Not one of the lowest twice in a row now.
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Ah ok. It just seemed to me like you were singling out the killer side as bad when both sides aren't nearly as good as they think they are.
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Nothing but Coup?
But he has such good synergy with perks like BBQ and PGTW.
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After seeing the kill rates, I couldn't equip anything more. He's just too strong. 😉
Honestly, I typically play pallet Freddy as a way to handicap myself and see how well I can do still. It's pretty satisfying. BBQ is usually one of my staple perks. Along with Lethal Pursuer because I love that perk.
PGTW is a slowdown perk though. And I don't run slowdown. No specific reason, I just don't want to run slowdown. It started around the time MMR was introduced and I just stuck with it.
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Oh yea no I see it in both directions.
I myself am... not the greatest at survivor but not the worst? I dunno its hard to say, I definitely dont go down in chase in 10 seconds or anything like that.
Where we draw the line at bad survivors though is hard, since there are 4 of them, and they rely on eachother. If there is a weak link the game almost becomes a loss entirely. Where as killer its really all on them to perform, and at low MMR that performance is not that high.
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Ah, got it!
I usually go with Corrupt Intervention, Pain Res, Brutal Strength and either STBFL or Bamboozle. Always with Dream Pallets.
I think it is a good build.
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Well said.
Some more data like Hatch escapes or Hook count would make those datas more useful. What we got now is quite a bit, but as oyu said, it does not draw the full picture of course. Many factors are not included.
We have to keep in mind that this data is across the whole playerbase, including beginners and low MMR, which is most likely a far bigger pool then high MMR - where Nurse (probably) is winning more in comparison.
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Oh yeah definitely. As well as her being weaker now than last stats where she had no special attack conditions and better addons.
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