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Why talking about win streaks proves nothing
Why do they happen? It's the MMR system combined with matchmaking. As an example, a 2300 MMR player in chess will statistically beat 99.6% of players if I remember correctly. A 2800 MMR player will statistically beat 99.8% of players but will also beat the 2300 MMR player over 99% of the time.
For there to be a significant chance for the 2800 MMR player to lose they have to be matched with another person who's at or close to 2800 MMR. How many 2800 MMR players are there in any system that uses elo? Perhaps 1 in a 1,000? If the person with a 2,800 MMR could only queue against a similar MMR they might not get a match period or at least be waiting enough time the game would be unplayable for them.
However, the 2800 MMR person is still a customer and that's why BHVR has a soft cap in MMR. They throw people that have no chance against the much higher MMR individual so the 2800 MMR person can have a game. That's also why MMR ranges expands outwards the longer someone waits; queue times would effectively make the game unplayable for the highest MMRs if they didn't.
That's why referring to win streaks by themselves prove nothing. If, with the parameters for matchmaking BHVR has, the higher MMRs didn't have long win streaks it would mean their algorithm was broken. Win streaks prove nothing on their own except that the highest MMRs will win nearly all the time against people with significantly lower MMRs and, by definition, higher MMR players are rare enough that it's hard to matchmake for them outside of planned events like tournaments.
That's why I don't care if Hens has a few hundred escapes in a row or if a Nurse has 1,000 wins in a row, etc. It proves nothing by itself as they're high enough MMR that they should mathematically have those win streaks if facing lower MMR individuals. The true data comes from the aggregate of matches played out by the majority of the playerbase. Outliers are called outliers for a reason; they don't prove anything by itself.
TLDR: Win streaks prove nothing because outlier players should have win streaks with the way BHVR favours queues over strict matchmaking.
Comments
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Agreed
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They should dump MMR and go by hours played in trials.
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Anyone who has played killer for more than a minute knows that the majority of the survivors they verse range from average to terrible and last maybe 10 seconds in chase. You know when you are facing the 1% though those matches are the minority as most killers will win most of their matches.
Honestly I don't think win streaks are very impressive either for the most part, I think any of us with a decent amount of experience could do our own win streaks if we are fine with running the sweatiest builds, playing the sweatiest we can including tunnelling out survivors and picking on weak links.
I personally don't want to play matches with people like this
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It proves that you can be consistent. You're not gonna play against the best of the best every game, that's obvious. But you should still get matched with opponents that pose a threat when you don't play well. The impressive part about win streaks to me is how consistent someone can play at a high level.
Everything else about win streaks is not all that impressive, agreed.
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