Effect Of Increased Kill Rates On Losing Streaks
Something I wanted to calculate while thinking about survivors giving up early and the shift to unevenly balancing kill rates in favor of killers. How would a change from 50% to 60% kill rates impact the chance that a survivor player goes on a long (hour plus) streak of zero escapes? I threw in an extra column for 65% (solo queue) and the results are pretty interesting.
Assuming average matches are 15 minutes, the chance of not escaping a single time in an hour of play time more than doubles when moving from 50% to 60% kill rates.
Now assume someone plays an hour or two per day for a week and see the likelihood that someone goes an entire play session on any given day without escaping. This is basically the chance that at least once perk week, a survivor has a miserable play session. Now extrapolate that across many many survivor players and we have a recipe for a lot of hopeless hook tuggers.
The question is, how many losses in a row will it take before a survivor feels like giving up after an early hook? I don't know but I think unfair balancing is a significant factor since this wasn't as much of an issue pre 6.1
Feel free to check my math as well.
Comments
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I played 12 games a couple days ago and had zero escapes. Was 4k at multiple gens in every game. It didn't make me wanna let go on hook, it just makes me log off and lose the desire to play. I've said before that I think matchmaking needs a good look at before anything else.
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But matchmaking was awful before and after 6.1 right? iirc mmr was introduced well before that update?
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It was, but I've (personally) found its gotten worse since. Alot of people suspect that the sudden mix of experience levels in team mates is probably linked to kill rate balancing.
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I agree, matchmaking feels worse but it's also compounded by map and killer reworks that remove any agency from the survivor side.
I can't express skill by trying to have a good chase where maybe two gens pop when the map gives me pallets between a bench and a barrel. Or when I dodge 4 hatchets but huntress has her 3 best add ons basekit so screw me.
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Australian matchmakings been busted since they began merging us with other servers.
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that sounds awful. my ping in NA has increased by around 20 on average out of nowhere. it started during the anniversary event and hasn't improved since.
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While I don't support players quitting early because it messes up other people's games, it's really strange to me that this behavior is often always dismissed as, "Oh, those players are just entitled babies" The fact that early quitting is such a common issue should be a cause for concern. Disregarding it as the actions of nothing but entitled players is a clever way to ignore why people do it, and can be used as a scapegoat instead of focusing/discussing the possible underlying issues that are leaving so many players unhappy.
And again, I don't condone quitting early, but this community often insists that you should play the game however you want, regardless of how it affects others. I'll add as well that it doesn't help that when people react this way and essentially "boycott" the game, it does get BHVRs attention, and changes are usually made in response. This almost "rewards" the behavior because if enough people are unhappy, BHVR takes notice and changes things, even if those changes aren't well received or later reversed - it still worked.
I think stats like this are very interesting. It does kind of make you think about what you believe is fair. Like how many games should anyone lose before eventually you don't blame them for just giving up? Or better yet how many losses should one be expected to have without feeling like giving up?
Idk. I gues that's an impossible question becaue everyone is so differeent.
I'm unsure how to feel about this all lol
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Matchmaking hasn't always been the same its had periods of testing and changes over time. Usually with how close to mmr you have to be to queue against someone else how fast that bracket expands based on wait time ect. So basically we've had everything from instaqueue no matter who to you are the best twins player? you can only queue after 40 minutes against the same swf over and over.
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Definitely some good points made here.
One thing I would note is that (possibly) having multiple bad results in a row might lead to tilting, thus causing the player to be more likely than average in subsequent games. Thus, lose streaks wouldn't be strictly a binomial distribution and the probabilities may be even more weighted than we think they are - especially since it's much easier to get that tilting loss streak going with a higher kill rate.
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I don‘t like behaviors unfair way of balancing things. 60% kill rate is simply unfair. I would love that they aim for 55% kill rate or/and 9hooks. This would make the game far more enjoyable and fairer.
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I would be fine with 56-58% kill rate. The current kill rate seems even higher than 60%.
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But losing streak is usually some bad luck too I was tunneled 5 gens 2 times in my last 8 games both would been escapes if killer didn't had rancor and noed. But then game dropped my mmr very low because I died...
Now I gotten worser teammates so escaping is hard. Matchmaking is the biggest issue. In one game I got killed by devour hope in endgame and just killers has vision to take me outand let other escapes because I quess im annoying looper.
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Anytime a particular role has a tremendous disadvantage will there be a lack of motivation. The problem is it causes you to feel your skill and the effort is meaningless. A game should always be about who is the most skilled, the one putting the most effort. When effort and skill doesn't yield an advantage then you have a spiraling out of control situation where people simply find playing the game is pointless.
A very low skill floor for killer and very high one for survivor is unhealthy. BHVR has failed miserably in making the game fair for all levels of play.
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If they are unhappy with the game they should not play it.
Also btw. to everyone saying 60% killrate is unfair, this is an average of 2.5 survivors killed per match (not for every killer/every player mind you. Some players go on full 4k streaks while others struggle to even get 2k)
50% would mean its 1k or less on average. This is an asymmetrical game, the balance will NEVER be 50/50 between the two roles. But the main issiue is objective rushing anyway, killers trying to spread hook states evenly are bound to loose. And it doesnt make any sense for a survivor to hold back on gens either. BHVR is trying to incentivice chase but they do it with perk nerfs/buffs, they dont do it on the objective itself.3 -
I don't understand, 60% is marginally more "unfair" than 55% to the point of almost no difference, and even then both of those aren't really "unfair" when we consider the fact survivors have four times higher chance of losing a match due to throwing players
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I would be fine with that as long as it leans more to the 55% than to the 60%. The point why I choose 55% was that I think killer should have a slight upper hand, but they should not win far more than survivor. Currently with 60% kill rate they have a 20% higher chance to kill/win than survivors have to escape.
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Shure it is still leaning towards killer, but it wouldn‘t be as much as it currently is (where killers have a 20% higher chance to kill than survivors have to escape). I would have taken 50% to make it fair, but I think then killer could be a bit frustrating, especially when one killer has 40% kill rate and the other 60%.
The „throwing of games“ problem is in my opinion caused by this unfair way to balance around 60% kill rate (which is probably even higher). It makes this game just frustrating and very often hopeless. I stopped playing survivor, because when you don‘t want to play survivor 24/7 you have very bad chances, especially on the newer/reworked/extremely killer sided maps. It is only frustrating at this point, so I took the easier way and became a killer main after MFT nerf, but it is boring by now, because of how easy it is.
Post edited by Langweilg on9 -
tbh, if i understand your math correctly what I experience on a regular basis should not be possible.
That being the whole "escape one trial" / "…and escape" challenges taking ~3-4 match-hours aka 10-15 matches. Prior to the update I tracked my escapes for a while as well as the overall escape rate. Mine was sitting at ~20% and the overall was sitting at 28%. I didn't count matches with DCs.
I don't play much anymore and I don't like to sweat so yeah, I'm probably somewhere between the lower and upper mid, depending on the killer and the map and whatnot. Absolute potato vs Spirit, kinda decent against Wesker, dog* against Wraith but surprisingly alright against Nurses (that don't cheese with a pretty beefy build) and so on. Eventually MMR should place you in a range where you reach the appropriate level where your escape rate is right, right? Apparently not. I keep having P100, 6k hours players basically non stop. And when e.g. KL goes "what are these people doiing here?! How is this high MMR?!" I absolutely agree with him; I don't know what I'm doing there in his match either.
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With a 60% killrate, killers don't have just 20% more chance to win than survivors, they have 50% more.
60/40 = 1.5x
As OP has shown, percentages are very deceptive in that regard, and a seemingly small increase in winrate leads to drastic consequences on the game balance. A 60% killrate is already very unbalanced from a statistical perspective, because it means survivors are almost guaranteed to get long loss streaks at some point.
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Interesting way to look at it. Those long streaks of losing can be really harsh.
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In answer to your question, it's down to many factors which may include: streak, mistake, bugs, feeling of unfairness, issues at home, fortitude, boredom, childishness, and a host of other things.
It's something that has too many factors, which we can only guess as to the reason why. What I've noticed - from what reasons people give on various forums - is it appears morr to do with what happened in that specific trial. That appears more commonly than any other reason.
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They can't simply balance the game around a lower kill rate (like 50 or 55%) because escaping isn't everything for the survivor side. Yes, it's the end result, but it doesn't account for what happens during the game.
For example, a survivor might run the killer for five gens, but just as they're about to escape, the killer hooks someone else and activates Blood Warden, causing the original survivor to be caught too. Does that mean this survivor lost? I don't think so.
Or if a killer faces a 4-man SWF that bullies them throughout the game and they can't get a single down, then they get one hook at the end and the SWF decides to have fun and swarm the hook, getting everyone killed. Would that SWF consider it a loss, knowing they could have had a 3-man escape but chose to have fun instead? Probably not.
These and many other scenarios are ignored when only looking at kills or escapes. We know that BHVR can track chase time, vaults, pallet drops, hits, etc., so it's clear they aren't balancing the game solely based on kill rates but by considering everything. Also, it's worth noting that people who post in these forums are more likely to be those who had bad games rather than good ones.
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"Does that mean this survivor lost? I don't think so"
By every metric, this is a loss. It's a loss of MMR, a loss in the sense that you died and it's at the very best, a team tie if 2 people escape.
Same with the other example.
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Someone said it above but I think a bigger problem for me is it really does feel like the survivor role has lost agency.
Kill counts don't bother me because even before the changes I would rarely survive. That's an issue with how I play and I never feel like returning for a survivor in the end game and dying is the fault of the killer. It's a choice I make and I rarely regret it. Likewise I don't feel like surviving is the main part of why I play, it's the gameplay and how close it was. A good game has a lot of hooks and a lot of gens done, and a great game usually comes down to the wire, whether you survive or die (to me anyway).
The issue though, is that a number of other things were changed where it starts to feel like quite often you can't do much to combat the killer. With the proliferation of detectable features in the game like auras, killer instinct, and screams, you're much less able to hide and with the small but noticeable nerf to on-hit sprint it's a lot less easy to escape chases by default. The game feels much less hide-and-seek orientated while also being more difficult (at a moderate level) to escape chases.
Combined with the unceasing trend of killers to camp and tunnel, these things really start to undermine the game. And while I would rather mechanics be introduced to combat or confirm camping and tunnelling, it seems like this is an issue that can barely be helped. So the things I have to point at are the changed gameplay aspects instead.
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To be honest, I think that's a very black-and-white way to look at a very gray issue. People are unhappy with the game in its current state, and based on past experiences, you can change the current state by "boycotting" like this. This method, while flawed, does push for change. Honestly, it feels like only when things are routinely "abused" in the game do big changes happen. It's a terrible method, but it gets results.
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If killers had their own way to "suicide on hook", you would see plenty of killers who quit over losing gens before a single hook, or a hex gets cleansed early in the game, etc.
Rage quitting is an issue of people being babies about how the game is going. There's no deeper meaning to it.
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1. Killers usually earn more points even in a loss than survivors get from escaping.
2. Losing a match as killer doesn't prevent you from being able to participate in gameplay like being camped and tunneled out of the match.
3. Why wasn't survivors giving up an issue that was frequently seen prior to major shifts in balance in favor of killers? You seem to imply that survivor players just decided matches were hopeless after 6 years of the game's existence with no changes to prompt this change in behavior.
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Yes, and that means the matchmaking/win condition sucks, not the kill and escapes rates
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Well good news for you! Roughly 19 killers are in that kill rate range! So over half fit right where you want them.
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No its very simple, there is tons of people that would want to enjoy the game without griefers, if you quit out of any reason prematurely you are one of those griefers.
The only argument i will accept as valid for "rage quiting" is real life emergency, but that isnt really rage quitting then. And there is a forum right here, tons of suggestions and feedback every day. THAT is the way to handle a game you enjoy and love playing, but if its so far that you gotta ragequit every single match (there ARE ragequitters every single match in my games) then thats a sign this game aint for you anymore. So why playing still?
Its like im a martial arts guy, i love muay thai and i want to go back to it when i find more time again. I hate fitness studios, its just boring to me. If i were to decide to go to a fitness studio and just complain why they dont have punching bags and no ring, you know. then i would be the equivalent of DBD ragequitters.0 -
Or if a killer faces a 4-man SWF that bullies them throughout the game and they can't get a single down, then they get one hook at the end and the SWF decides to have fun and swarm the hook, getting everyone killed. Would that SWF consider it a loss, knowing they could have had a 3-man escape but chose to have fun instead? Probably not.This always comes up, but its statistically irrelevant. There is something like a million games played every day. The above could happen, the killer can let survivors go, the killer can go afk from the beginning, etc. Those roughly balance out and even if you could track every single one of those you'd probably one push the rates 1 to 2% in either direction.
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Your example almost makes sense, but you've missed it a little.
You're into martial arts. Unfortunately, the only martial arts place around is extremely ######### to its members, doesn't offer any teaching and usually engages in multiple toxic behaviors. They have essentially cornered the market and are now the only martial arts place available, with the others no longer able to compete due to the massive head start said company had.
Your options are either to give up martial arts, which you love; or continue to suffer through a toxic and unhealthy environment due to a lack of alternatives.
That, ultimately, is why people stay with DBD. There's nothing else out there except for mostly dead games who are usually populated by other DBD players desperate for something not called DBD
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Accurate lmao
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They he tipped the plane to favor Killers. I have noticed in a lot of the reworked maps that the generators are so close together. You have no chance unless you load in with exceptional survivors of getting five of them started in order to get out. There's times that I have played for 3 or 4 hours and the only time I ever escaped is when I loaded in with a key. If you notice, they've also put a lot of the exit gates closer together. So if you are the soul survivor of a match, they've made it next to impossible for you to escape on your own. Then add that to the fact that survivors are always playing with bots. Which never play the way normal people would. It's extremely frustrating. I mean why are we loading in as survivor with bots? If they're giving 100% bonus for killers. Remove the bots and maybe we won't have to be needing to incentivize the killers to play. Maybe it'll balance out better.
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I don't understand what is gray when people are literally doing bannable offense, it's 100% bad, no question
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Not just gens and exit gates spawning closer, but the lack of pallets (and most of what is there is unsafe in new ridiculous tiles). The new Yamaoka variations are just deadzones, there's bugger all pallets and so much open spaces. They've done this enough with recent reworks that it's obviously intentional and not just an oversight. I hate to use the term 'dumbing down' but that's exactly what it's feeling like.
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Sorry my fault, but it proves my point even more.
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Oh having a bad martial arts gym and no other miles away would be horrible.
But if i were to somehow come to a point tomorrow where i simply cant enjoy dbd anymore, then there is a BULK of games in my steam library desperately waiting to get played finally. Its not like people can only enjoy one genre in the full gaming space.2 -
The main problem is that some killers basically feel like you have no counter to them(looking at you Unknown), people getting tunneled(and thus not allowed to play that match) or even getting betrayed by another survivor(either by them being a potato or even leading the killer right to you and/or letting you die on the hook). It honestly feels real annoying to not only be the first survivor found but that SO MANY KILLERS decide to tunnel said survivor out of the match(which I tend to be the victim of more times then I can count). The main problem is that even if your the only survivor gotten, guess what, your mmr still goes up a bit if the other three leave now. The main problem is that us survivor mains tend to want to get a match over with if we aren't getting many points anyway and find a new match as quickly as possible if we are the first caught since about 60 percent of the killer players tend to tunnel people and the anti camping thing has only even filled the gauge about three times that I have even seen(and the fact it does nothing once gates are powered so you know killers with NOED will just camp the survivor as a result). Add on the fact that medkits, flashlights, and keys have all been nerfed in some way over the years(getting only one self heal from most medkits, can't lightburn the Wraith and Nurse anymore, hatch only shows up if one player is still alive) and you can tell why survivors feel they have so few ways to counter killers these days, which leads to higher kill rates as a result(which tends to annoy survivors since they don't want to leave a session of playing on a loss either). It is why I have started only playing the game off and on recently(mainly for my own sanity). I don't find it fun to constantly lose and with a recent thing of hooks coming back(which I don't agree with), I am not as likely to even come back to the game(though it at least has less tryhards then another game I play I guess).
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I agree that it’s a bad decision and I don’t support it, but to completely disregard the reasons for people doing so is almost as ignorant as the people that quit in the first place.
A serial killer is always in the wrong, but that doesn’t mean the reasons why they did it don’t matter. It’s important to recognize patterns and what lead people to making those bad decisions. Once we can understand what drives people to certain things we can prevent them. My entire point is that the fact this has become such a frequent issue is not a coincidence. Again- it is NOT the right choice but when so many people are unhappy it’s also not right to simply ignore every case based upon a generalization of every person simply being an entitled baby. It reminds me of the people that say “everyone else is the problem - not me” and then wonder why they’re alone lol
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When was kill rates last time shown and some of those killers got buffed. We had wesker and skull merchant with 65% kill rate. I remember the average being at least 59% last time recently many maps have been nerfed so I believe kill rates are now above 60%. I think 57% should be the average kill rate.
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