http://dbd.game/killswitch
Killer queues are on average 5+ minutes right now and Survivor incentive is only +50%?
Comments
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It's 9 years dying and can't die no matter how much "prophets" wish it happen. Also by "magical" reason player count only grows. Maybe before acting smart, you should question yourself "maybe i'm biased about things?".
Post edited by BoxGhost on-6 -
If a killer has DMS, it's pretty safe to bet that they have PR.
Second, you don't "have to remember which survivors have been PR'd." Just let go of the gen for literally one second while the killer hooks anyone.
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You 4K in under 1 minute? Man, I would love to see some video of this. Even in 3 minutes with your other “non-main” killers is incredibly impressive. The best pro streamers in the world can’t even do that, so we would all love to see how it’s possible for you.
Also, if the game is “dying”, BHVR is loving it and probably wants it to die even more because player counts are at all-time highs.
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was the dev comment deleted?
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I mean, it is doubtful all of his matches are under a minute, but an under minute isn't impossible.
If you really want to see one though:
Abandon feature wasn't a thing when I recorded this, but under newrabandon mechanics, this would have ended under a minute. The last person DC'd before i downed the 3rd. The match starts ~8 seconds into the video. Thats every player downed by 59 seconds with the last being a bot.
Granted, this was a bully squad attempt, so they were far more interested in trying to bully than actually be protective of themselves. They weren't used to m1 killers baiting out their tactics and countering them. They even tried throwing in a CJ tech.
Match-wise, this isn't uncommon
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Please stop repeating this "forums math".
No matter what the escape rate percentage is, it's descriptive of the state of an average game, and not predictive. This isn't like flipping a fair coin: survivors fall like dominoes because snowballing exists, among other factors.
For example, the first survivor to be chosen to die (by the killer) only escapes about 20% of the time, since 0k is the most rare outcome for a match. And if the first kill happens fast enough (say, with 3 or more gens remaining), the killer has almost guaranteed at least a 3k, barring some extreme set of circumstances. None of that is captured in what you're saying here.
As it is right now, killers "win" (3k or 4k) roughly 50% of the time, and survivors "win" (0k or 1k) about 36% of the time, with the remaining 14% or so being draws (2k).
In an actually fair game, it would be more similar to about 43% for each, with draws taken from the center.
I've personally never seen any other competitive PVP game where not only does your chance of winning really so heavily on whether you're "attacking" or "defending", but you can also choose "always attack" to make sure you are playing on the team designed to win more and never have to "defend".
It's the one (and possibly only) thing that comp DbD tends to get right, which is that each group has to play both as killer and survivor and come out on top to actually beat the other.
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We can't ignore math because it's inconvenient. It's the hard truth, and ignoring that is unproductive.
That being said, in a fair game, you are absolutely correct - we would be looking at a roughly 43% escape rate, and I STRONGLY encourage the devs to at LEAST experiment with leaving behind the notion of balancing the game around 4 individual survivors each with their own win condition and instead shift it to a survivor team (who all wins/ties/loses together) vs the killer. That would actually allow for ties, and in turn bring up the balanced escape rate to ~43%. Until then, the balance is a mess and not a fair game.
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Expect it to be like this until BHVR learns what the word "Balance" means. I've played plenty of games with horrible balance (Overwatch, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, etc.) but this game's balance is horrid. Like, it's not even the toxic strategies at this point, it's just how unbalanced it is. I'm sorry, but their biggest mistake is shooting for 60/40 instead of 50/50. Balance does not happen unless it's 50/50.
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Deja vu once again xD
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We can't ignore math because it's inconvenient. It's the hard truth, and ignoring that is unproductive.But you're not doing math that actually applies to the situation. That's the problem, you're ignoring the actual substance of the issue (in this case, the game) which makes it extremely unproductive. @AmpersandUnderscore explains it here, again, and you just don't address it.
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It's not inconvenient, it's not applicable.
It's like saying, "well, I have a one in twenty chance to roll a 16 on a fair die, therefore DbD balance." The math you're using here just has nothing to do with DbD. It doesn't model, or resemble, anything we can directly see about the game. It doesn't even come close to how a match plays out, in any way. I could talk about the number of people drinking lattes vs espresso in my local Starbucks and it's equally as irrelevant to DbD as your flipping a coin (even though that's also math).
The apparent goal, every time you do this, is that by skewering the data, you try to take a 60% kill rate and make it look as though killers are the underdog. But they aren't. Not by any metric we have access to. (At least not killers in general, I'm willing to admit that, say, trapper could be a discussion).
You're confusing kill rate (or escape rate) with win and loss rate (which at this point I think is just intentional). You're assuming that every survivor has an equal chance of escaping (which they demonstrably don't), and you're confusing a descriptive percentage as a predictive value.
Currently, kill rate is about 59%, and survivor teams win about 36% of the time (0k or 1k). So since we've been talking about wins, a "fair game" typically will have a roughly equal win/loss rate for each side, with ties coming out of the middle. So, to be clear, you seem to agree with me that 36% win rate for survivors is too low and should be brought up to maybe 43ish%. That would also mean killer's win rate goes down from about 50% to 43%.
But you switch to "kill rates" for some reason, and again, I'm starting to think this is intentional to try and deliberately confuse the issue.
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Yeah, incentives are not really working for like 10 months.
I have submitted bug report, but "Under Review" since November…3 -
Just to contribute to discussion…
Everyone I think knows, that escape/kill rate considers different
For survivor “win” considerate as escape. No matter how many teammates left with you. This rule is always applied for streaks and widely considerate as it is. Exclusion, maybe, when u play in full stack sfw (and everyone knows it is rare)
For killer win condition for considering as streak is 3 or 4.
But what for killrate and escape rate? Well, it is slightly different, cause for escape rate counts only personal escape, for kill rate 1 of 4 “points” for each survivor.
If we are taking “ideal” escape rate as 50% it basically means u won 5 games out of 10.
As killer? Well… here is example of 60% (that according to night light only few killers consistently achieved on both mmr level) :
1 out of 4
3 out of 4
2 out of 4
2 out of 4
3 out of 4
2 out of 4
4 out of 4
4 out of 4
1 out of 4
2 out of 4
That’s 60%, but if considering “win condition” defined by bloggers and majority, because we like to refer how many killers able to do huge win streaks it is only 4 wins out of 10. So… win rate like 40%????
Of course, assymetrycal games doesn't mean to one side being overpowered. But the issue of this game is literally 1 vs 4. It’s simply impossible to balance it out. In this game usually either 4 escapes or 4 dying. Win conditions also kind of obscure. Is it really possible to balance escape rate and kill rate for 50/50 if they have completely different conditions for counting by official stats?
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We can't ignore math because it's inconvenient. It's the hard truth, and ignoring that is unproductive.
Unproductive?
How about you listen to anyone else on the subject of the relation between killrates and winrates for once, so we can put that divorced-from-reality scale model of yours to rest for good?
Because constantly harping on about how .5^4 =/= .5 is simply not relevant to any discussion regarding winrates.
DBD is not a perfect mathematical engine. So stop insisting on it.
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It is possible to balance things out. Major misunderstanding between killers and survivors comes from SWF existence. If you cut away Discord or any other voice option away, even best players in the world play less efficient as they lack information voice call gives.
To properly balance it, we need to equalize SoloQ and SWF so gap between them were low as possible. As it is impossible to ban Voice call, survivors need aura perks like Kindred as basekit. But without revealing killers aura. It will lower gap between survivors and then adjust killers as their winrate will become bit lower. But with a thought it's playing 4v1 not 1-1-1-1-1.
I can bet every killer will agree playing vs SWF is much harder and every survivor will agree getting better coordination makes games much easier
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I’m agree with need to make solo buffed by info, but
- voice chat will never be added to game. While no sfw will get rid of discord
- Killer can’t define duo or 3 and one or whole squad. Until first hook at least, so no one prefer to lose pressure at early game and at all on killers.
- It's impossible to balance both win conditions and win rate in game with 4 vs 1. Because teamwork will always be the greatest advantage in such way, especially in dbd where info rules. Comp dbd proves it by nerfing half of the perks on survs and allows killers to hard tunnel for the chance of 2k. I don’t want compare pubs with comp, that’s just actuallly shows how unbalanced game can be if u use info by 100% and rng on your side.
This game never will be balanced as 50/50 for survivors. It either will be purely survivor sided as it was at beginning, or it will be more inclined to killers (at least we are past of unhealthy gen kicks meta) That's why 60% killrate was proved as valid by devs themselves. And no, they barely buff killers. Usually they just milking them as cows and nerfing after, until they create monster with high mobility which core power is being able to counter any info advantage by high mobility.
I still up to buff solo with free information tools without perks, because it has potential to show actual picture. But most important is explain messy MMR where somehow sweaty players get along with chill ones
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I'm not asking voice call. It would be terrible idea to add in as a lot of people are either too toxic or way unstable with their emotional health. Just by checking after game chat in every game now and then there are people who wish killer all bad things to happen.
My idea is to minimize difference to reveal actual game picture as currently it's like roller coaster, in some games you are mentally prepared to face swf and get baby survivors who beg mercy at 5 gens, and in some games you come to chill out and face 5 gens in 3 minutes…-2 -
Yes, I’m agree with that. So after I started to do win streak on killer I’m now facing actually good lobbies, even if they are solo.
But on survivor it’s still so random, I feel half of my loses on survivor defined by one teammate who simply haven’t faced experienced killer before and don’t contribute to the team
Like… it was three people in game yesterday under fresh hook and instead of healing person they unhooked they healed feng min with 0 hooks while her teammate that actually needed protection was hooked twice in a matter of seconds:₽ Or I’m trying to bodyblock dracula so he is forced to use power and not free m1, but my teammate is so oblivious he is running straight without any attempt to dodge it-1 -
According to BHVR, 4 mans have a 48.2% win rate at experienced levels, not 36%. You're likely pulling from newcomer numbers which yes, killers will dominate at that level - new survivors don't know how to loop and such. You're attempting to skew the numbers by providing numbers where people don't even know how to play yet. "High MMR" doesn't mean professional grade. It's actually very easy to get to "High MMR". High MMR just essentially means a level where everyone is generally experienced. Again, the ~48% are the published official stat numbers from BHVR themselves. As for kill rates, that's because that's how BHVR balances the game. They've clarified this numerous times - survivors are not a team. Otherwise, they would all win\lose\tie together. Their entire balance system is entirely around kill rates and personal survivor escapes. Complain to them, not me. That's just how the game is designed. My numbers are based on the reality of DBD, not how DBD should be in theory according to your preference. If 2 survivors die and 2 escape, which of those 4 survivors did the killer tie with exactly? Did he tie with survivor 1 who died, survivor 2 who died, survivor 3 who escaped, or survivor 4 who escapes? That's right, there are no ties. I don't know how many times BHVR has to clarify this for you to understand - I'm starting to ponder if you're just pulling my leg at this point. Not taking my word for it is one thing, but entirely disregarding BHVR's own statements about how the game is designed is something else. It's 1 killer vs 4 individual survivors that each have their own win condition.
You and I will never see eye to eye on this. My statements are about how the game IS. Your statements are how you (and frankly me too) wish the game was - a team vs team game. However, it's fruitless for me to come here and start making statements and balance about how it would be as a team game when the reality is that it simply is not, so I accept the reality of how DBD is and post accordingly until BHVR abandons the design philosophy that each survivor is their own personal "team" with their own personal win condition.
I am ENTIRELY on board shifting the game to a team vs team game. That allows for ties, and allows for survivors to get balanced around a higher win rate (~43% chance to escape per survivor) which also puts the killer at ~50% win rate. Entirely and totally on board. However, BHVR simply is not.
EDIT - Reference for BHVR's official escape rate stats. Your 36% is nowhere to be seen. You can ignore the reality of how DBD is. I prefer not to. No reason to get upset with me for showing the inconvenient truth of the matter. Get angry at BHVR, not me.
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There's a few issues here.
That’s 60%, but if considering “win condition” defined by bloggers and majority, because we like to refer how many killers able to do huge win streaksBut that's not how BHVR tracks the game. It's a whole different discussion on whether they should. BHVR in game metrics of MMR are pretty clear, from the killer perspective, kill = win, escape = loss, hatch = no contest/draw.
In terms of game philosophy, BHVR is again pretty clear via not being clear 'you can consider a win whatever you want to'.
I'd also disagree that there is a clear majority. Back during the slugging vs non-slugging experiment those who participated considered only a 4k a win, anything else a loss, and in terms of streaks for survivors that I'd say is far more associated with SWFs then individual players.
Finally if killers weren't so frequently able to do huge win streaks I don't see how that would be a problem.
So… win rate like 40%????But they also have draws. In the scenario you created the killer has only 40%, but they only lost 20%, while, if we take the assumption of survivors basing their wins only on individual performance, they lost 60% of the time.
What the 3k+ rate to a 60% rate is is uncertain, our best source of data is Nightlight though it has many problems, but based off them a 60% KR likely results in a 3k+ rate of 52 to 55% depending on the killer.
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Your 36% is nowhere to be seen.
That's because the statistic that @AmpersandUnderscore is referencing is not tracked in that table. Read their post before you start your counterargument.
The table you show is the escape rate for the individual survivors that are part of a team of a certain size. AmpersandUnderscore was referencing the proportion of match outcomes where one or fewer survivors got sacrificed at the end of the game. Those are two different things.
48.2% escape rate for each individual member of a 4 man swiffer at high MMR =/= 36% of all matches end with one or fewer survivors killed.
They're two different statistics.
My statements are about how the game IS.
Your 'maths' are so far off the mark of what DBD is that you might as well be yapping about the winrate on Meowscles or Cernunnos, or how likely you are to complete the mission if you bring in the Eagle Strafe Run stratagem.
You consider absolutely zero of the factors that contribute to DBD's outcomes. You have simplified it down so far that you're not talking about DBD anymore. That's what everyone is explaining to you, but you keep digging your heels in and clinging tighter. Somehow, when people clearly and concisely explain your mistake to you, you are simply more convinced that you are correct.
Like you process none of the information presented to you.
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The fact that we have a big Survivor chapter and the queues are still skewed should be very concerning. At the same time every trial today has been a steamroll before 3 gens are even done, so I can see why.
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My survivor queue time is obnoxious right now, and it's usually way too early for me to be seeing a bonus on the killer side.
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Opposite in my region atm.
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I don't see the point in speculating on mathematics when everyone has the opportunity to track their personal statistics, and there killrate clearly considers due to how many kills you have. Hatch no matter. Maybe for mmr system, but not for av stats people actually care and thinking of.Because the principle of game design of dbd where it’s 4 vs 1 basically means u can provide the best result only with enough info and being in sfw.
U can try to “balance” this game around solo, but that’s being frankly impossible. After huge period of time A LOT meta perks from killers was nerfed,; anti tunnel, anti camp, anti gen was added, a lot of killers without mobility are extremely weak now. For last few years the only nerfed survivor perk is like completely broken made for this or dh and few others. Less anyway, and the game doesn’t provide any “anti-mechanics” for doing objectives.
It still doesn’t help to killrate however. Moreover, continue focusing “we need to do this against x group” just encourage this group to use extremely unfun methods to win. Because against even mid team, games doesn’t provide ability to use fun way to win. If your opponent plays fine, u knows what he is capable of. A lot of players on killer will unlike to give survivors breath by such reason. Because of anxiety of giving them too much, and later u’ll be punished by complete lose, again and again.
The only who doesn’t care on killer simply doesn’t main killer. Same with killers who don’t care of being tunneled 10 times in a row while playing survivors.I’m pretty sure majority of players don’t like tunneling/slug, but anyway they’ll continue to use it because falsy attempt of improving balance by nerfing “op” side literally provides u no options. And u can’t remove this tactic. Because for devs it means the need to nerf survivors twice at least for making killer be able kill at least one guy. U can try to nerf it, but u’ll always have unbalanced nurse or ghoul that don’t actually care about otr or whatever u have.
And even if u’ll try, u are never able to balance this nurse. As well as winrate for both sides.
When u play as survivor, u blame killer in tunneling or teammate in sandbagging. When u play as killer, u usually blame yourself if u aren’t salty of course. Because everyone telling “your role is so ez”. It’s so ez, but u lost. Such a shame, huh. But explains why killers more concerned and focused on sweaty playstyle and trying to abuse everything for being sure they won’t blame themselves of being unable to carry easy role
People claiming about need to decrease killrate instead of trying to buff solos by info and focus in survivors itself, thats phenomenal. These keeps for years and clearly, doesn’t help. I just wish people for focusing on killers winning less and trying actually to think how balance survivor so they can feel fine without affecting other side. Otherwise, it’s just another rotation in dbd history where first suffered killers, than survs, than killers again and it’ll be endless cycle full of toxicity to each other
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I don't see the point in speculating on mathematics when everyone has the opportunity to track their personal statistics, and there killrate clearly considers due to how many kills you have. Hatch no matter. Maybe for mmr system, but not for av stats people actually care and thinking of.If you don't see the point in speculating, that's fine, but I don't know why you got in a math discussion via the post I responded to.
Lots of people care extremely deeply about the MMR system and base their entire presumptions of win/loss around it. If you don't, great, but there's not a consensus on how to view the game, which is likely just how BHVR wants it.
Everything else in the post feels like a non-sequitur that's about other game issues.
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Because math speculations aren’t needed when even official personal stats circulate around people having personal escape rate (not team one) and killrate only .
I also care about MMR, but clearly not in sense of “win condition definer”. Because… I simply can’t see it? U just can use simple math for counting av rate and don’t try to consider hatch or other factors, because stats considering them only for MMR they told always be hidden and not revealed.MMR is completely another world we can’t mathematically speculate because we don’t even have half of conditions there , and it doesn’t correlate with conditions for win that considers in your escape/killrate u actually can see.
Devs provide only part of actual picture of MMR system, and trying to mathematically speculate about this is actually concerning and more likely to create fantasy rather then depicting reality
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Trying to balance around solo is just acting for trouble, aye. I really do wish BHVR would move the game to a team vs team game and balance around the concept of everyone working together. Sure, you CAN solo queue, but you're still going to be matchmade into a team and be expected to work together. If everyone won\lost\tied together as a single team, I feel balancing the game would be a lot more effective. If, in theory, we had the killer have an equal chance to win as the survivors as a team (win = majority ie 3+ kills or 3+ escapes, tie = 2 kill), then each survivor would have a roughly 43% chance to escape. That's a heck of a lot better of an experience than 4 individual survivors with their own win condition which is balanced around a measly 38.5% chance to escape for a 50% killer win rate.
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Haven't seen the bonus on the killer side in such a long time that it fells odd to look at it.
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Some people silently dislike someone‘s post only because they are saying something so evident like 4 vs 1 impossible to fairly balance… nuh
Before BHVR created DeathGarden, and despite having more variety for the survival mechanic and being a cool game, it faced the same problem: new or uncoordinated players died too easily and quickly, while more experienced players simply bullied the “killer”. Same in HSH: survive btw, it is just extremely unpleasant to play one side, while in DBD despite solo being misery majority playing survivors most of their time.
The problem with games like this will always be inevitable in this regard. And it's not like huge streaks on killers are now as easy as before. I'm currently watching the all perks streak from otz and another similar streak from a Russian blogger. Even using an aggressive tunnel and the most boring strategies, the same otz made at least 5-6 resets, unable to secure a victory on 50% of all killers still. And this person has over 14k hours in the game. The balance will always be on the side of those who bring the strongest items in this game, and for survivors this is only possible in sfw, not solo. If u’ll try to balance game around solo, it turns out killer will never be able to kill sfw in current state and will rely heavily on being able to beat solo harshly in 50% So, “mathematically speculating”, it will lead to being so unfun playing killer everyone will suffer in survivor queue time :₽ And that not almost, but every game will inevitably lead to hardtunneling and slugging from killer who stayed for poor 1k
For experiment month before I was doing “no tunnel challenge” myself, condition was never try to chase unhealed survivor who was rescued under any circumstances. I either have to find and hook other person, or let them fully healed. My max streak was 8 games . And I was sweating as hell on my favourite main. It's already impossible to consistently win without unfun methods. Maybe we should balance game not around kill rate, but making unfun gameplay unattractive and encourage more fair gameplay0
