im bad at math
Alright so Ive been trying to help a friend get the achievement for repairing the main gen in Garden of Joy which after way too long we finally got it. (yay!) ...However it took 100+ offerings. (About 80 were mine, and there were a few of his own and a few from my other friends)
"Oh but Im sure there were just a few failed attempts!"
Out of all of those offerings burnt, we got Garden of Joy twice
First was very early on (About when Walking Dead came out, since we were also trying to get Fallen Refuge at the same time) and 2nd was yesterday.
So heres the question: what are the odds of only getting Garden of Joy twice in 100 attempts?
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outside of that achievement those odds would give me joy
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I didn't do the maths, I knew it was binomial probability, but thats asking me to go back 10 years... and I always disliked stats xD
So, Google did it for me... and the probability of getting exactly 2 out of 100 trials on a 20% chance is 0.0000063%... or 1 in about 158'730.
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I dont think this is taking into account that the offering also has a chance to send you to Greenville, The Pizzeria and Fallen Refuge.
So its a 20% chance, then we have to hit a 25% chance.
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True, I forgot that, basically a 5% chance... so the odds don't look quite so ridiculous xD
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