Survivors getting off the hook too easily?

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I dont know where to put this because idk if its a bug or not but last night i played 6 killer games and in 5 of those, at least one survivor got off the hook on their own. After 3 games i started checking. None of them had the deliverance perk, None had extra luck perks or offerings. I thought it was just a run of bad luck.

Today i've played 5 killer games and in all 5 at least one person got off the hook first time. In the last game i played ALL 4 survivors got off the hook when they were first hooked. In the game before i downed 3 people with one already dead, i hooked one, left to go pick up another surv and the hooked surv gets off the hook. The 2nd surv i hook funnily enough stayed hooked then, with the 3rd surv still down i managed to find the other survivor who got off the hook first time and downed him again, i hook them and they begin to struggle. I pick up the third surv who is still down, hook them, head off to break pallets and gens and the third surv gets off the hook.

In 11 games at least one person is getting off the hook each time. Now usually its the last survivor so i can catch them again but its starting to become a joke when im downing all 3/4 and then 1-2 of them are getting off hooks. None are using luck offerings, none are using perks to increase luck.

Ive never wanted to camp but this is going to make me. Its becoming silly. What the hell has happened? Is it just me? Are other killers experiencing this?

I read its meant to be a 4% chance to get off a hook. When i hook 44 people and around 20 of them manage to get off the hook by themselves it seems this % has gone up.

Has something changed that i dont know about?

Comments

  • powerbats
    powerbats Member Posts: 7,068
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    It's based off % so the more you try it the higher the chance you'll eventually get it I think. But the survivor has to fail a lot for it to get to that point if that 1st part is accurate.

  • I_am_Negan
    I_am_Negan Member Posts: 3,756
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    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

  • DarkGGhost
    DarkGGhost Member Posts: 1,072
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    is bace 4 % and for every dead survivors you add 5-7%

  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @DarkGGhost said:
    is bace 4 % and for every dead survivors you add 5-7%

    This is false. It's just 4%, period.

  • DarkGGhost
    DarkGGhost Member Posts: 1,072
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    @Orion one friend of mine try to find the numbers and this is what he find out
  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @DarkGGhost said:
    @Orion one friend of mine try to find the numbers and this is what he find out

    And how did he find the numbers, exactly? Ask him what his methodology was and post it here.

  • TimeMonster
    TimeMonster Member Posts: 152
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    @DarkGGhost said:
    @Orion one friend of mine try to find the numbers and this is what he find out

    it's 4% and no way it changes uless use luck offerings or deliverence.

    i saw game code - 4%... thing is - these 4% referenced not to "Luck" (In game code - there is a part called "luck" but it's work on it's own, increasing numbers in other mechanics without it's been mentioned in mechanics it self), but thouse 4% referenced to somecinde E0000 wich... i didn't found in game code

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
    edited December 2018
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    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed. Usually it happens when 1-2 are downed and im hooking the one ive most recently downed, i hook them its their first hook, i hang around to make sure and they somehow get off. Thats not as annoying as i just hung them down and kill them, but if i dont camp now they just magically get off. I play freddy a lot and it happens when i can see the other 3 either because theyre in the dream world or bbq and chilli. Usually if i dont see someone when bbq goes off i will stick around for a bit looking and then leave as i dont like to camp.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was also no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Self-unhook attempts follow a binomial distribution. For every 3 attempts, a Survivor has about an 11.5% chance to get off the hook. You can get unlucky and get a few (or even several) self-unhooks in any one interval of your trials. That's how probability works. 4% success rate for each attempt doesn't mean that if you try 100 times you'll have exactly 4 successes.

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
    edited December 2018
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    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Self-unhook attempts follow a binomial distribution. For every 3 attempts, a Survivor has about an 11.5% chance to get off the hook. You can get unlucky and get a few (or even several) self-unhooks in any one interval of your trials. That's how probability works. 4% success rate for each attempt doesn't mean that if you try 100 times you'll have exactly 4 successes.

    Ive never had this before though. A survivor will usually get off once every 5 matches maybe not 1-2 every single match and ive been playing killer regularly for a year.

  • DarkGGhost
    DarkGGhost Member Posts: 1,072
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    @Orion he say that he searching the files of the game and he run a program he have for finding specific code. After 2-3 hours he find thos numbers. 
  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @DarkGGhost said:
    @Orion he say that he searching the files of the game and he run a program he have for finding specific code. After 2-3 hours he find thos numbers. 

    I'm not buying it. Data mining is unreliable.

  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Self-unhook attempts follow a binomial distribution. For every 3 attempts, a Survivor has about an 11.5% chance to get off the hook. You can get unlucky and get a few (or even several) self-unhooks in any one interval of your trials. That's how probability works. 4% success rate for each attempt doesn't mean that if you try 100 times you'll have exactly 4 successes.

    Ive never had this before though. A survivor will usually get off once every 5 matches maybe not 1-2 every single match and ive been playing killer regularly for a year.

    1 Survivor every 5 matches, so that's 1 Survivor out of 20 Survivors, which is 5%.

  • I_am_Negan
    I_am_Negan Member Posts: 3,756
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed. Usually it happens when 1-2 are downed and im hooking the one ive most recently downed, i hook them its their first hook, i hang around to make sure and they somehow get off. Thats not as annoying as i just hung them down and kill them, but if i dont camp now they just magically get off. I play freddy a lot and it happens when i can see the other 3 either because theyre in the dream world or bbq and chilli. Usually if i dont see someone when bbq goes off i will stick around for a bit looking and then leave as i dont like to camp.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was also no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Yeah I don't know that's strange. I rarely get myself off the hook (maybe like 1 out of 20 games or something) let alone see others get off that many times.

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    Update - 1 more match, 2 survs dead, all gens done, have noed, down 1 surv, hook him, as im chasing the other (still in dream world as im playing freddy) the one thats hooked gets off AGAIN. Seriously i couldnt make this stuff up

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Self-unhook attempts follow a binomial distribution. For every 3 attempts, a Survivor has about an 11.5% chance to get off the hook. You can get unlucky and get a few (or even several) self-unhooks in any one interval of your trials. That's how probability works. 4% success rate for each attempt doesn't mean that if you try 100 times you'll have exactly 4 successes.

    Ive never had this before though. A survivor will usually get off once every 5 matches maybe not 1-2 every single match and ive been playing killer regularly for a year.

    1 Survivor every 5 matches, so that's 1 Survivor out of 20 Survivors, which is 5%.

    Yes thats what NORMALLY happens. Thats NOT whats happening now. Its at least one survivor every game.

  • brokedownpalace
    brokedownpalace Member Posts: 8,761
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    You'll have to start recording otherwise I just don't buy it. If it is happening, sometimes that's just how chance works. As others have posted here sometimes you can get the same map 4+ times in a row with no map offerings.
  • Orion
    Orion Member Posts: 21,675
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @Orion said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @I_am_Negan said:
    Are you sure there getting off the hook themselves, and another survivor isn't lurking around the corner ready for the save

    When all others are dead or downed?

    Ive stood there watching them do it aswell. No one else is getting them off. I watched at least 4-5 of them doing it, the rest were when all other survs were dead/downed.

    So yes, im 100% sure. There was no debuff from deliverance.

    I mean if no one else is getting this i have to be the most unlucky killer in dbd history.

    Self-unhook attempts follow a binomial distribution. For every 3 attempts, a Survivor has about an 11.5% chance to get off the hook. You can get unlucky and get a few (or even several) self-unhooks in any one interval of your trials. That's how probability works. 4% success rate for each attempt doesn't mean that if you try 100 times you'll have exactly 4 successes.

    Ive never had this before though. A survivor will usually get off once every 5 matches maybe not 1-2 every single match and ive been playing killer regularly for a year.

    1 Survivor every 5 matches, so that's 1 Survivor out of 20 Survivors, which is 5%.

    Yes thats what NORMALLY happens. Thats NOT whats happening now. Its at least one survivor every game.

    Unlucky streak (and confirmation bias). It happens.

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    @brokedownpalace said:
    You'll have to start recording otherwise I just don't buy it. If it is happening, sometimes that's just how chance works. As others have posted here sometimes you can get the same map 4+ times in a row with no map offerings.

    I dont really care if you buy it. Im not going to come onto this forum just to make ######### up. I have about 15 posts. Only reason i came on was because i noticed it so much

    I also came on to see if it was happening to others but its clear its not.

    Update, 3 more games, 1st game no one escaped off a hook, 2nd game 2 did but 1 with deliverance, the other did it in front of me almost as i was walking away, 3rd game 1 escaped off the hook when only him and 1 other was alive and i was chasing the other, he didnt have deliverance.

    And its not how chance works like i said before its never been like this since i started playing. Something very weird or buggy is happening.

  • ReneAensland
    ReneAensland Member Posts: 838
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    Proof. Where is the video proof?

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    @ReneAensland said:
    Proof. Where is the video proof?

    My word and report clearly mean nothing then and just invite trolls here.

  • Raccoon
    Raccoon Member Posts: 7,671
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    The spooky and threatening place known as The Hook?

    Oh, you mean The Vacation Station!

  • powerbats
    powerbats Member Posts: 7,068
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @ReneAensland said:
    Proof. Where is the video proof?

    My word and report clearly mean nothing then and just invite trolls here.

    No, it's just if it's happening so often then a video would help prove it otherwise we have to chalk it up to randomness or confirmation bias.

    If you were to submit this as a bug report because you think it's happening too often then the devs would want exact games but also video of it happening as extra help/proof.

  • brokedownpalace
    brokedownpalace Member Posts: 8,761
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    @brokedownpalace said:
    You'll have to start recording otherwise I just don't buy it. If it is happening, sometimes that's just how chance works. As others have posted here sometimes you can get the same map 4+ times in a row with no map offerings.

    I dont really care if you buy it. Im not going to come onto this forum just to make ######### up. I have about 15 posts. Only reason i came on was because i noticed it so much

    I also came on to see if it was happening to others but its clear its not.

    Update, 3 more games, 1st game no one escaped off a hook, 2nd game 2 did but 1 with deliverance, the other did it in front of me almost as i was walking away, 3rd game 1 escaped off the hook when only him and 1 other was alive and i was chasing the other, he didnt have deliverance.

    And its not how chance works like i said before its never been like this since i started playing. Something very weird or buggy is happening.

    No need to get upset. I don't know you. Plenty of people would come here to make up dumb #########.
  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    @powerbats said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @ReneAensland said:
    Proof. Where is the video proof?

    My word and report clearly mean nothing then and just invite trolls here.

    No, it's just if it's happening so often then a video would help prove it otherwise we have to chalk it up to randomness or confirmation bias.

    If you were to submit this as a bug report because you think it's happening too often then the devs would want exact games but also video of it happening as extra help/proof.

    I wish i was a streamer :( That was more a reply to the trolls here though, not the ones who are replying properly. I like to think people actually believe me cause i aint come here to make ######### up, i was going to put this in the bug forum but i didnt know if i should.

  • Kayleepaige
    Kayleepaige Member Posts: 42
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    @brokedownpalace said:
    Kayleepaige said:

    @brokedownpalace said:

    You'll have to start recording otherwise I just don't buy it. If it is happening, sometimes that's just how chance works. As others have posted here sometimes you can get the same map 4+ times in a row with no map offerings.

    I dont really care if you buy it. Im not going to come onto this forum just to make ######### up. I have about 15 posts. Only reason i came on was because i noticed it so much

    I also came on to see if it was happening to others but its clear its not.

    Update, 3 more games, 1st game no one escaped off a hook, 2nd game 2 did but 1 with deliverance, the other did it in front of me almost as i was walking away, 3rd game 1 escaped off the hook when only him and 1 other was alive and i was chasing the other, he didnt have deliverance.

    And its not how chance works like i said before its never been like this since i started playing. Something very weird or buggy is happening.

    No need to get upset. I don't know you. Plenty of people would come here to make up dumb #########.

    Well thanks but im not that sad. I know its hard to base it on word of mouth though. I legit am so annoyed at it though because its really ruining things. I hate camping, i hate campers but right now i cant get a 3 kill or 4 kill without doing it.

  • powerbats
    powerbats Member Posts: 7,068
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    @Kayleepaige said:

    @powerbats said:

    @Kayleepaige said:

    @ReneAensland said:
    Proof. Where is the video proof?

    My word and report clearly mean nothing then and just invite trolls here.

    No, it's just if it's happening so often then a video would help prove it otherwise we have to chalk it up to randomness or confirmation bias.

    If you were to submit this as a bug report because you think it's happening too often then the devs would want exact games but also video of it happening as extra help/proof.

    I wish i was a streamer :( That was more a reply to the trolls here though, not the ones who are replying properly. I like to think people actually believe me cause i aint come here to make ######### up, i was going to put this in the bug forum but i didnt know if i should.

    Try and record video of a bun ch of gamers in a row that way the devs know whether it's just an outlier or an actual bug. You can also post it in the bug forums and even submit a support ticket if you have any videos and or time/date stamps for the matches in question.