The Amanda's Letter add-on for The Pig has been Kill Switched due to an issue with incorrect RBT count.
http://dbd.game/killswitch
I'm Suspicious of the Shrine
Does anyone notice how often perks from free and/or characters appear in the shrine? Or just original characters in general? Enduring has appeared over 20 times, Agitation 20 times, Adrenaline 16 times, Sprint Burst 17 times, Shadowborn 16 times etc. Comparatively, there are only about 9 perks (out of 50 perks) from licensed DLC characters that have appeared 10 times or more.
They say the shrines are random, but even with the event 24 hour shrines, the perks we get mostly seem like perks we get from base characters, not to mention some of the shrines seemed purposefully stacked (Decisive Strike, Unbreakable, Nurse's Calling and Tinkerer yesterday, and Ruin, Undying, Detective's Hunch, and Prove Thyself like the day before). I know that the Shrine gets manually changed whenever there is a challenge in the tome that requires a perk, but I'm still very suspicious.
I only really noticed because I had yet to see Mettle of Man in the Shrine, and it turned out that it hadn't been in the shrine since the last week of June when I had started the game, and even with the 24 hour shrines (which end today), it still hadn't appeared, even as I was seeing the same perks appearing very frequently in the Shrine. Do you guys think it's actually random?
Comments
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I do but I think the licensed perks have lower chances of appearing probable due to some licensing agreement
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I didn't follow the shrine but i notice that some are repeating themselves.
I'm guessing they're choosing the perks because RNG code is quite diverse, all 4 of them can be of licensed characters.
I don't think it is related to any agreement, otherwise none of the licensed perks would have appeared.
They may only appear in a few months, this can make impatient people buy the characters instead of waiting of that specific perk.
I would not be surprised if this is a kind of trick to make us buy the character.
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There used to be a whole forum-wide celebration when Ruin would show up in the shrine because nobody wanted to buy Hag.
I'm serious.
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Some pẻrks have higher chance than other. Like Agitatiin 0.3% while license one has 0.1%
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The Shrine is likely weighted rng. New chapter perks and licensed perks are going to show up less.
That said, BHVR does have the ability to select the perks themselves as seen with April Fool shrines.
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I would see that as being so unfair, especially for people who pour a ton of money into the game. Like, for me, I bought the Silent Hill edition and then went and bought all of the DLC (except for Ash because I don't like him and I don't want to pay for something I don't like). It's so unfair to lock so many of the most important perks (like DS, Detective's Hunch, BBQ) behind another paywall (unless by a miracle, it appears in the shrine). It just feels like they make it so inconvenient to get licensed perks that you feel like you have no choice but to pay for the DLC / characters
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BBQ, Detectives Hunch, and DS were all on recent Shrine of Secrets during the event.
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For one day. Not everyone can afford to play the game everyday. This doesn't solve the problem. Soul Guard has never been in the shrine, Mettle of Man hasn't been in since the last week of June last year, we've yet to see the Resident Evil perks either, even though the shrine has been re-rolled a good 15 times now.
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They were there for one day. For people who don't have the time to grind for shards, ran out, don't have time, had to choose between one perk or another, etc, they now either have to wait or pray it shows up again. Mettle of Man for example, hasn't been in the shrine since June last year and Soul Guard has never been in the Shrine either. If all the perks were guaranteed to show up at some point during the event, that's one thing, but they aren't.
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To be fair I think BHVR already has to jump through holes just to give the characters new outfits. So I would not be surprised if there's some kind of ongoing payment.
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I don't think the shrine has ever been truly random, not with the rarity of certain perks and the overabundance of others, especially ones from free characters.
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They don't need to say it's random. The fact that they don't tell us whether it's random, whether it's likely licensed perks will appear (and or how frequently) is a pretty big red flag and it really shows their lack of transparency. If for example, I knew that the Hag's teachables were common in the shrine (as they are) because she is an original killer, if I don't like the Hag's gameplay, I wouldn't mind waiting for her perks to come out in the shrine. But with, say, the Pig's perks being part of a licensed killer, even if I didn't like the Pig, I may still want to buy her because licensed perks have a decreased chance of showing up in the shrine. BHVR being clear about how the shrine actually functions would allows players to make informed decisions.
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They have said before it's more procedural than random:
The only thing I've noticed about the shrine is that perks getting major changes seem to have a higher chance of appearing shortly before/after the change goes live.
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I bought BBQ and Chili like the day before the event started for 2k, and then it showed up for 1.5k. Coincidence? I think not.
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They do hold off putting the new stuff in the shrine on purpose
We have yet to see any All Kill perks even though it's been over three months since they came out
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Hag is free? I never bought her anyway.
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It's really annoying tbh. I told my mates if any good perks go into the shrine I'll let them know. However they have all the free characters levelled so these shrines don't do anything.
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There are two rules to the Shrine:
- 2 survivor perks and 2 killer perks will appear
- If perks are required for the current Tome challenges, they will appear (on the first week or something like that)
Other than that, it's random. You can check the following wiki article to see how often each perk has appeared:
https://deadbydaylight.fandom.com/wiki/Shrines_of_Secrets_Archive
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"Enduring has appeared over 20 times, Agitation 20 times, Adrenaline 16 times, Sprint Burst 17 times, Shadowborn 16 times etc."
Know what all these perks have in common? They belong to the base game characters, they literally are the ones that had the most chances to appear in shrines compared to any newer perks, which is only exacerbated by the fact that back then, there were far fewer teachables the shrine could pick from than nowadays, so of course there was a lot of repetition with those.
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Another fun fact: the Shrine was introduced in the same month when we got our first licensed characters, Shape and Laurie, meaning that their perks inherently had a lower chance to appear compared to non-licensed ones. Overall, we have fewer licensed characters (and therefore perks) than original ones.
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Despite that, Michael and Laurie have had their perks in the shrine far more than any other licensed characters in the game by a substantial margin. All of their perks have been in the shrine at least 10 times. And it seems that their perks appeared quite a bit in the year they were introduced too
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You mean the oldest licensed characters have had their perks appear more often than newer ones? Why is that in any way surprising?
Think of an opaque bag with numbered balls 1-10. If I keep drawing them, then putting them back in the bag, I have a 1/10 chance to draw any one of them, right?
Now say I drew them 100 times and every ball 1-10 was drawn between 8 and 12 times. Now you add a new ball, numbered 11, and I draw them 100 times yet again. Would you expect the 1-10 balls to have fewer total draws than the 11th, keeping in mind the 100 previous draws without ball 11?
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Hag and Doctor are free on all console versions of the game, but on Steam they're not included in the base game (I don't know about Windows Store or Stadia)
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Person gets a set of rules on what perks are not allowed to appear and they pick at random following those rules. It's not done through code so they can pick for events/rift challenges/ or themes.
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If a human were picking these, you wouldn't see randomness like we have, because our brains inherently seek out patterns and connections in random data. Humans do not have an inherent understanding of probability and randomness.
This is why a shuffle feature (for some Apple product, I believe) actually had to be made less random so it would feel more random, because people didn't understand that randomness means you can get 10 songs from the same band or artist in a row (especially if that band or artist is featured more often on their playlist), so they had to make the shuffle actively avoid doing that (i.e.: make it less random) because otherwise people would make the non-existent connection between two songs and conclude that the shuffle "wasn't" random.
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You wont see the resident evil perks for months as thats how the shrine works
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Ya I definitely think newer perks have a lower percentage chance of showing up. Not a single Binding of Kin or All Kill perk made it into the anniversary shrines and only Hoarder has been in the shrine since those chapters came out. I do not want to buy/support those chapters since they were released extremely unfinished/unpolished/buggy/broken so I've been waiting for those perks to hit the shrine. To be honest, I should have done the same with the Resident Evil chapter. I'm very suspicious that not all perks are equally weighted, which seems highly deceptive of them.
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Same for me. I bought it the week it appears right before the event. Then it was in the daily shrine for cheaper... 😭
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Yes, they do, because there are more perks overall now than there were before. That's how probability works. See my example below.
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I heard that it was a person with a spreadsheet who picked them.
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"I heard" is not a reliable source. Heard from whom? How would they have access to that information? Can we verify that this person actually exists?
Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me if that were the case, seeing as how every spreadsheet in existence has a "random" function, which would certainly make it easier than having to create a random function of your own, test it (to make sure it works properly - there's a lot that goes into making a proper random function), then add it to the game to pick the perks automatically. In the short-term, it's cheaper to just have a human use a spreadsheet. It also prevents dataminers from knowing which perks will be added to the Shrine in advance, since they don't have access to the RNG.
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I'm convinced the RNG elements are not so RNG.
I've been levelling up Nurse, and the green recharge addon is pretty much the rarest item for me. It hardly ever appears. On the other hand, the green addon that causes survivors to scream is guaranteed to appear in every bloodweb, sometimes I get 4-5 of them. It's ridiculous. I've got over 100 of them when I've been actively avoiding them.
Same with Spirit... the MD ring is incredibly rare for me. It'll appear once in maybe 15 bloodwebs. But the father's glasses is at least in every 2-3.
I reckon they're definitely determining the rarity of the items appearing by how much they're actually used; the more used an add-on is, the less likely it is to appear. At least that's been my experience so far.
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I don't understand why people think it's random (or that it's supposed to be).
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It would explain why we see a lot of Doc and Feng (and sometimes Ace) I guess we can consider them as part of the OG collective now.
I paid money for them. Like, almost twenty bucks total. That's enough to buy two people a fast food meal. Perhaps through my purchases I have solved world hunger. I get virtual person in video game and they get a happy meal.
I guess that means you guys don't have to spend as many iri shards before you start turning perks into bloodpoints.
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I'm surprised because Laurie's perk Soul Survivor was in the first Shrine of Secrets, then Dying Light was in the second shrine, then Decisive Strike in the 3rd and Object of Obsession in the 4th. Maybe because - of the 10 weeks between the release of the first shrine and the end of 2016, Michael and Laurie's perks appeared in 8 out of 10 shrines. According to the logic that everyone goes by (newly released perks don't show up in the shrine until a certain amount of time has passed), this doesn't make any sense. None of this makes any sense. BHVR just isn't being clear about how the shrine works and it's really deceptive.
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According to the logic that everyone goes by (newly released perks don't show up in the shrine until a certain amount of time has passed), this doesn't make any sense. None of this makes any sense. BHVR just isn't being clear about how the shrine works and it's really deceptive.
Or, bear with me here, people are just wrong about that and the Shrine does indeed work the way BHVR has already explicitly said.
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I'm 100% sure that it's not completely random, too many perks show up way to frequently and a many if the highly sought after perks like BBQ show up so infrequently. If I were to guess its probably a mix of random and curated, probably randomize it initially and then they curate it from there. The event shop confirmed that they absolutely have the ability to curate the shop ex:Ruin/undying in the same shrine, I mean cmon. As well as just most of the first couple days the shrine was just filled with mostly meta perks, I refuse to believe it was a coincidence.
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To be clear, you're saying it's curated because:
- Perks most people want (which are a minority of perks overall) don't show up often.
But also because:
- Perks most people want showed up.
So it doesn't matter if the perks you want appear or not, because either way you believe the Shrine is rigged and use completely contradictory statements and events to "support" that notion.
As for "highly sought after perks" (i.e.: meta perks) showing up infrequently, that's just probability. Meta perks are always a minority among all perks. Furthermore, meta perks would always have a lower overall frequency because they were created/introduced after the Shrine. See my analogy here:
Yes, some perks can appear more often than others, even if they have the same probability to appear. That's how probability works.
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What do you mean either way supports my belief? I offered statistical anomalies, the shrine during the event was clearly curated to be better then normal, because they wanted people to play during the event its not hard to understand the motive there yet the rest of the year they drop bbq like once a year.
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I'm saying that you're offering what you claim are statistical anomalies, even though they're complete opposites, as "evidence" that the Shrine is rigged.
If the Shrine is rigged, it should be easy to prove. The wiki has every Shrine ever, just do the math. Keep in mind the following when you do that:
- The total number of perks in each Shrine is not the same, due to new DLCs being released.
- Perks that are required for challenges show up on the Shrine, to allow people to complete those challenges.
- There are 2 survivor perks and 2 killer perks nowadays, but that wasn't the case before.
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I literally don't have too you just have to look at the event shrine, you can't look at that line up and say it wasn't curated, and if they did it then why is it such a leap in logic to assume they've done it at least somewhat for awhile.
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Well, I don't have to either, because I look at it and see randomness. Now what?
Humans don't inherently understand probability. Unless you studied it, what you see is just your brain's pattern-recognition trying to extrapolate from random noise.
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How can you see the event shrine and think it was random genuine question
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Because it looks random. You see a pattern because you're looking for one (perks you want vs. perks you don't want). Fact is, coincidences do happen. Just look up the Feynman Point. That's a seemingly non-random sequence in an otherwise random set of digits. These things happen in random systems. It doesn't prove some big conspiracy.
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You mispelled "money"
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Alright you know what, I dont think we'll see eye to eye on this because of there being an assumption of intent or a lack there of, as well as a certain amount of trust or distrust in bhvr staying to their words or just not communicating properly in house. Personally I have absolutely zero trust in bhvr almost ever being completely honest as a business and so assume the worst in most things while trying to be as objective as possible but I still have my bias and you have yours.
As such we'll just go in circles with neither agreeing, ill just say that I'll respect your opinion on it and end it there.
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Yeah, you can't be unbiased if you just assume everything they say is a lie. Those are literal opposites.
It'd be quite easy to prove your position, if it is indeed true, by doing a little math. Knowing what I know about probability and the human brain's incessant pattern-recognition that leads people to conjure up conspiracy theories from random, uncorrelated events, and looking at the actual data, I'm confident that it's random (within the parameters that BHVR has explicitly mentioned).
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You know after checking the announcement for the anniversary shrine they said that it would "feature Perks from almost every single character in Dead by Daylight" can you tell me how statistically possible that would be if it were completely random?
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Shrines are not random. We've been in a drought of BBQ/DS for almost a year before.
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My guess would be "very", since the Shrine changed every day for two weeks. That's 56 perks, 28 killer perks and 28 survivor perks. Given the rules governing the Shrine and the fact that there are 27 survivors and 24 killers, it sounds very likely.
Aftercare, Solidarity, Wake Up!, and Dying Light haven't been in the Shrine for a year or more either.
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