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Mathematically, how many kills can you expect with Pig's new iri if AFK bodyblocking a jigsaw box?
When you trap a survivor, each jigsaw box has a 25% change of being the right one. The important point is that all four survivors don't automatically have different boxes. It is possible for 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 survivors (if all trapped) to have the same box.
I "think" the math works like this:
[EDIT]: I am stupid, check out Crowman's correct math below. If you use immediately AFK bodyblock a single jigsaw box, you have a 63% chance to get a 1-2K (and will be killing one or more survivors 68% of the time).
I know my new mission in DBD (since my wraith is being nerfed)- stock up on the pig rare, and go for the 4K! There should be a prize from Behavior for the first AFK 4K in DBD history.
Comments
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New Toxic Pig Strat
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I feel like this will be very marvelous way to troll survivors.
I'll enjoy using this meme until I get lucky 4k afk pig or until it gets reworked.
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except it has a 1/4 chance of failing every single game
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Someone didn't read the math :(
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That's actually pretty evil.
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I did, but if you actually want a "win" you'd need at least 2 kills. A toxic strat usually implies you are using the strategy to win in an underhanded manner, this is more of a meme strat. every survivor has a 1/4 chance of removing their hat, if at least 2 of them manage to do that the strat is no longer effective in a toxic way, it just becomes a meme. Its a pretty great meme strat though if you want to watch the poor guy beg you to let him through to the last station
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It's toxic because you force an individual survivor to die
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you gotta admit though, it would be pretty funny. Compared to say, getting facecamped by a bubba, its a much sillier way to meet your unfortunate RNG based demise. I think that sways it more firmly into the meme category than toxic category
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Well yeah, it's funny, but i think it would make most people rage honestly
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The math you posted is a bit flaw. It's a 25% chance that a single key is the box you block, but that's not the same as the chance that at least 1 key is in the box.
If you want to find the chance that at least 1 survivor will die if you body block a single box the math is as following:
1 - (1 - chance of success) ^ number of rbts
1 - (1 - 0.25) ^ 4
1 - (0.75) ^ 4
0.68359375 or 68% chance that at least 1 survivor is dying.
For the odds you kill 1, 2, 3, or 4 survivors is as following:
1 - 42%
2 - 21%
3 - 4.6%
4 - 0.4%
Note: The math here is a bit more complicated to type out, but you can use this calculator: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
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Thanks, I have been humbled by someone with actual math abilities. This actually makes the trolling more potent! A 63% chance at a 1-2K is pretty awesome for AFKing. Will cross-reference to this at the top.
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It's a 26% chance that you get 2+ kills from just afking at a box since it would be 21% [2 kills] + 4.6% [3 kills] + 0.4% [4 kills]
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I can see potential for stalemates where survivors start the game by solving boxes (as logical) and once they realize the right one is bodyblocked they're left with no choice but not progressing the game or die/dooming their teammates.
Seems dangerously similar to the old hatch stand-off, or even to griefing by bodyblocking in a corner before egc start.
@MandyTalk @Peanits maybe put this in the feedback for the ptb.
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1 at most or the survivors will 99 all the gens and wait.
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Pair this with the other iri that reduces the amount of jigsaw boxes by 2.
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If survivors are smart and see this they will 99% the gens and let a survivor that didn't get their mask off through the hatch.
So for you to have 1k you at least need 2 survivors with a stuck rbt
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That's not going to be a thing anymore. That add-on was Amanda's Letter, which is being changed with this upcoming patch. The aura reading is going to 16 meters from 12, but the boxes will remain at 4 and not be reduced.
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If only a single survivor can't remove the trap, there is a workaround:
They 99 the gens, and then finish them all almost at the same time. They open the exit gates and the 3 survivors without the trap leave. The hatch appears, the last survivor with the trap leaves through the hatch.
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Crowman's answer was correct, but I think he didn't quite answer your question as you asked "How many survivors you are likely to kill". That would be the expected value, and that is 1(which means if the system is truly random, no hacking/keys or other uncontrollable vairations, as you match number tends to infinity, your kills will be asymptotic to your match numbers).
In case you wonder I have attached the calculation and some brief explanation.
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This sounds hilarious. But who knows, maybe it is holding the game hostage because a killer did it. The survivors not going gens? Eh. Whatever.
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I'd much rather have my head pop off than get Mori'd by tombstone Myers that's for sure.
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If the SBMM is working correctly, playing normally should get you a 2K most of the time. So, based on what I'm reading here, it seems like going AFK in front of one of the boxes gives you a 75% chance of doing worse than you would do if you just played.
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