Shrine of Secrets and Statistics
This is a repost. The original was taken down twice, I imagine to censor it. I can't condone it. I have no ill will against BHVR as a company, and I even say that.
EDIT: Sometime last night, the original two posts we're restored. Thanks for Orion for pointing it out.
Here's all my data for what I'm about to say: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Bn3M1tOrXYAdgEaYUj1cp2R8RcgjsD0rI9TTaS94ViQ/edit?usp=sharing . Feel free to check it, criticize it, tell me I'm bad at math, tell me my sources are wrong, or call me an idiot. Even if I made some minor errors counting weeks and such, the general trends are way too pronounced to be ignored.
Hi, I'm Pharos#2088, AKA that guy who complains in #memes about BBQ not being on the Shrine, AKA mimzy630, AKA Aigis of Reason. I've done a pretty in-depth analysis on the Shrine of Secrets week by week, and whether it is "fair" (i.e., does every teachable perk have an equal chance of appearing each week.). Obviously, the answer I've come up with is no, no it isn't. I started by looking at BBQ & Chili, half because the week it was on the Shrine my laptop was broken, and half because I suspected its absence for so many weeks would be a statistical anomaly. Well, we're living in the worst timeline, because at the time of writing this (January 24th, 2019), the chance of BBQ not being on the Shrine since October 31st-November 7th, 2017 is 1.89%. This is an anomaly, to say the least. To say more, this is likely intentional rigging by either BHVR or pressure from Vertex to make more money from the license due to it being $4.99 base price rather than $6.99. Now, I don't know the real reason. In fact, 1.89% isn't that low, and it is possible. For several months now, I've been lurking the #memes channel in the Dead by Daylight Discord, ranting every Tuesday about the new Shrine. However, I hadn't formally typed up my data. Now I have, and now someone can really check for themselves if the Shrine is rigged.
Of course, BBQ being so popular, I thought maybe focusing on it gave me a bias. So, I next did a full analysis week-by-week to see if the chance of paid and chance of free perks on the Shrine was proportional to what was expected by statistics. Naturally, again, it wasn't. No big surprise there. However, the trend was so durable, and at times so large, that it really struck me: 115 weeks and 460 trials netted a -6.7% weighted average, or average fewer paid perks. Normally, this would be pretty minor and insignificant, but with the backing of 460 trials, this represents a trend. I didn't both calculating the standard deviation of significance (R) value because I honestly don't remember how, but any data with such strong negative correlation and over 400 trials at least deserves further review.
To close, I do like this game. I have about 358 hours and counting, but these findings are (pun intended) rather insidious. I'd rather not think that BHVR is actively lying about the Shrine of Secrets being "random" and "fair," but that seems to be the only option.
To any DBD player reading this, I hope you share it. To BHVR Staff, I ask that you do at least one of the following:
Make a statement that the Shrine of Secrets is rigged
Make the Shrine of Secrets truly random
Release the formula that determines the weekly Shrine of Secrets
Notice none of those say "Rig the Shrine of Secrets." If random chance means never seeing BBQ on the Shrine again and having to shell out that $4.99, so be it. I don't care. This game is cheap at $20 with constant sales and I don't mind supporting the devs. The only thing I mind supporting is lying. These are clearly not outliers. Time and number of trials are on my side to say that and make the data significant. This is a trend, and I want to see it gone or recognized.
TL;DR: It’s probably rigged. The chance of getting BBQ, and more important, the overall chance of getting paid perk is far lower than statistics would suggest. #FixTheShrine
- Pharos#2088
Comments
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Dude just stop who cares if it's rigged or not maby it's because the shrine shows the least used perks and not the most yes ones I.e the metas like bbq is
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Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.
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I don't want to defend them, but at the same time, it's a misconception that "random" and "fair" have to go hand in hand. Afaik, they never stated anywhere that the shrine is meant to be fair; they just state that it's random. This means that perks don't have to have equal chance to appear, as long as they don't hand-pick the perks, it's still random.mimzy630 said:I'd rather not think that BHVR is actively lying about the Shrine of Secrets being "random" and "fair," but that seems to be the only option.
To any DBD player reading this, I hope you share it. To BHVR Staff, I ask that you do at least one of the following:
Make a statement that the Shrine of Secrets is rigged
Make the Shrine of Secrets truly random
Release the formula that determines the weekly Shrine of Secrets
Now, would it be good if all perks have equal chance to appear? Yes, ofc. But they don't need to admit a lie that they never make in the first place. If people get the wrong idea due to bhvr's lack of explanation, then it's the people's fault from starting with a wrong set of assumption.
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He does take into account new perks entering the pool, if you read the document.Orion said:Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.
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@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
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@redsopine01 said:
Dude just stop who cares if it's rigged or not maby it's because the shrine shows the least used perks and not the most yes ones I.e the metas like bbq isHuh? BHVR's official statement is that the Shrine fo Secrets is completely random. I don't know usage numbers, so I can't run the numbers there, but if this is the case then their statements are still false.
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@Milord said:
mimzy630 said:I'd rather not think that BHVR is actively lying about the Shrine of Secrets being "random" and "fair," but that seems to be the only option.
To any DBD player reading this, I hope you share it. To BHVR Staff, I ask that you do at least one of the following:
Make a statement that the Shrine of Secrets is rigged
Make the Shrine of Secrets truly random
Release the formula that determines the weekly Shrine of Secrets
I don't want to defend them, but at the same time, it's a misconception that "random" and "fair" have to go hand in hand. Afaik, they never stated anywhere that the shrine is meant to be fair; they just state that it's random. This means that perks don't have to have equal chance to appear, as long as they don't hand-pick the perks, it's still random.
Now, would it be good if all perks have equal chance to appear? Yes, ofc. But they don't need to admit a lie that they never make in the first place. If people get the wrong idea due to bhvr's lack of explanation, then it's the people's fault from starting with a wrong set of assumption.
Very true. Randomness does not mean "fair" in the sense of equality. By fair, in this context, I do equate them- I think, if random chance dictates, never seeing BBQ on the Shrine again is fair. I do not assume that perks will appear in a roughly equal manner.
Thank you for your feedback! That is an important distinction to make.1 -
@redsopine01 said:
Dude just stop who cares if it's rigged or not maby it's because the shrine shows the least used perks and not the most yes ones I.e the metas like bbq isThe devs have honestly no idea what Perks are meta and which aren't. They've shown that time and time again.
Several "meta" Perks have been frequently on the Shrine. The one thing I do with Shrine Conspiracists is laugh at them. The Shrine is RNG and it seems most here have no understanding how RNG works.
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the shrine is a random number generator, or rng, with new killers/survivors entering the shrine, the chances of getting bbq is decreasing, so calm down, bbq will re-enter the shrine and you will be okay
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I just think they haven't added BBQ to the shrine because they know that people want it and would benefit more if you bought the Leatherface killer dlc.1
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I have absolutely the feeling aswell that the shrine is rigged, thanks for the statistics to make it even clear.
To everyone who says "but it's RNG, you don't know what RNG is" at least have the balls then and admit that the shrine is busted and needs rework so locking meta perks like BBQ behind a paywall for over 1 year doesn't happen.1 -
@DwightsLifeMatters said:
I have absolutely the feeling aswell that the shrine is rigged, thanks for the statistics to make it even clear.To everyone who says "but it's RNG, you don't know what RNG is" at least have the balls then and admit that the shrine is busted and needs rework so locking meta perks like BBQ behind a paywall for over 1 year doesn't happen.
How did you get jailed, also it might be because of the addition of new perks
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@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
No, I must admit I did not read it. You said it was "data" in your OP, so I figured it was just a compilation of frequencies and percentages, like what the wiki has. Still, my apologies. I'll give it a read when I find the time.
I will say, however, that this is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place. It'd be both cheaper and easier than creating it and then rigging it, not to mention completely foolproof - can't ######### up the rigging if there's nothing to rig. The creation of the Shrine adds an unnecessary layer of complexity to this imagined scheme that is wholly unnecessary. Occam's Razor guts this conspiracy theory every time.
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How many times has ruin showed up in shrine?0
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I wish it was weighted. I don't buy in the shrine anyways. However I don't think making it 100% random every time is good. It should be weighted based on how many times it has shown up in the last 365 days.
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@mimzy630 said:
This is a repost. The original was taken down twice, I imagine to censor it. I can't condone it. I have no ill will against BHVR as a company, and I even say that.By the way, here are the originals that were "taken down twice":
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/43442/is-shrine-of-secrets-rigged-a-statistical-analysis
https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/43444/is-shrine-of-secrets-rigged-a-statistical-analysis1 -
..
Post edited by DwightsLifeMatters on0 -
Honestly, I almost never use the shrine, last time I used it was to get some more bloodpoints, I prefer to grind the shards for the next chapter. So I really don't care about the shrine being rigged or not, I already have BBQ unlocked anyway
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Just want to say that's how politics work. :P Giving people what they want without fundamentally changing anything. I assume we used to complain about having to buy a killer to get their perk will lead to p2w (or something like that)? So they give us a 'solution' that can keep their profit level high.Orion said:@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place.
Not that I want to push this 'conspiracy theory' or anything. I just think that this isn't that big of a stretch for a conspiracy theory.1 -
@Milord said:
Just want to say that's how politics work. :P Giving people what they want without fundamentally changing anything. I assume we used to complain about having to buy a killer to get their perk will lead to p2w (or something like that)? So they give us a 'solution' that can keep their profit level high.Not that I want to push this 'conspiracy theory' or anything. I just think that this isn't that big of a stretch for a conspiracy theory.
Before there was the Shrine of Secrets, there were Splinters. It'd still be far easier to increase their occurrence than to:
- Create a new currency earned by playing the game
- Create the rules surrounding how you earn said currency
- Create a store where you can spend said currency
- Create the interface for the store
- Create a system that randomizes what's in that store
That's just off the top of my head. No matter how you frame it, creating the Shrine of Secrets would've been detrimental to this imagined scheme.
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I have been researching the same issue for the last 6 months but don't really know what I'm doing and the results have been inconclusive.
I think it probably is random though based on some things I measured and recorded. Also I think there is a grace period when a new perk is released it cant go in the shrine for 6 weeks. Did you know that?Anyhow my calculations show there is an 80% chance of BBQ appearing sometime in February. So that's re-assuring.
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First of all your math is off. A perk can not appear twice in one shrine. Second I am pretty sure there is a rule that prevents perks appear in successive weeks. It never happened and would be very unfair. So the probabilities are different each second week.
This makes the BBQ probability higher for each period.
BUT: statistics /= probability
Just because your data does not match your mathematical expectations means that the data are wrong. Statistical deviations are natural. If they did not exist, I would be sure that the data are fake.
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@DocOctober said:
@redsopine01 said:
Dude just stop who cares if it's rigged or not maby it's because the shrine shows the least used perks and not the most yes ones I.e the metas like bbq isThe devs have honestly no idea what Perks are meta and which aren't. They've shown that time and time again.
Several "meta" Perks have been frequently on the Shrine. The one thing I do with Shrine Conspiracists is laugh at them. The Shrine is RNG and it seems most here have no understanding how RNG works.
In my experience, RNG doesn't yield a durable negative trend.
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@ToxicFengM1n said:
the shrine is a random number generator, or rng, with new killers/survivors entering the shrine, the chances of getting bbq is decreasing, so calm down, bbq will re-enter the shrine and you will be okayI, well, duh. I state that clearly. I know that. My argument for BBQ can be explained as a an outlier. The overall trend, however, cannot.
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@DwightsLifeMatters said:
I have absolutely the feeling aswell that the shrine is rigged, thanks for the statistics to make it even clear.To everyone who says "but it's RNG, you don't know what RNG is" at least have the balls then and admit that the shrine is busted and needs rework so locking meta perks like BBQ behind a paywall for over 1 year doesn't happen.
Err, I appreciate the sentiment, but I'd rather random "fair" than a fixed "fair" (i.e., force BBQ on Shrine yearly isn't random).
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@mimzy630 said:
@DwightsLifeMatters said:
I have absolutely the feeling aswell that the shrine is rigged, thanks for the statistics to make it even clear.To everyone who says "but it's RNG, you don't know what RNG is" at least have the balls then and admit that the shrine is busted and needs rework so locking meta perks like BBQ behind a paywall for over 1 year doesn't happen.
Err, I appreciate the sentiment, but I'd rather random "fair" than a fixed "fair" (i.e., force BBQ on Shrine yearly isn't random).
No, you wouldn't.
Random is what we have now, but because you don't understand probability (standard deviation, confidence interval, the difference between a set average and an expected value, the law of large numbers - just to name a few), you've falsely concluded it's rigged.
Were it pseudo-random, to compensate for the inherent, well, randomness of RNG, it'd artificially increase the probability of perks that have appeared less on the Shrine, in order to seem more fair, thus giving you the result that feels more natural and intuitive - the result that you want.0 -
@Orion said:
@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
No, I must admit I did not read it. You said it was "data" in your OP, so I figured it was just a compilation of frequencies and percentages, like what the wiki has. Still, my apologies. I'll give it a read when I find the time.
I will say, however, that this is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place. It'd be both cheaper and easier than creating it and then rigging it, not to mention completely foolproof - can't [BAD WORD] up the rigging if there's nothing to rig. The creation of the Shrine adds an unnecessary layer of complexity to this imagined scheme that is wholly unnecessary. Occam's Razor guts this conspiracy theory every time.
This is probably the best argument against the theory. You're very right, though I would add that Shrine was made to appease us, so rigging isn't out of the question. Still, while 460 trials seems to be enough to be significant, it could still be an outlier. Especially because, well, -6.7% is pretty slim, though with perks like BBQ, it seems magnified.
I would very much like this to be the case. Also, while I was posting, my two other discussions disappeared from both my list of discussions, along with all the comments. I see now that they are restored. Thanks for the tip- not sure what happened, but whatever, I suppose? I wish I took a screenshot with timestamp.0 -
@mimzy630 said:
@ToxicFengM1n said:
the shrine is a random number generator, or rng, with new killers/survivors entering the shrine, the chances of getting bbq is decreasing, so calm down, bbq will re-enter the shrine and you will be okayI, well, duh. I state that clearly. I know that. My argument for BBQ can be explained as a an outlier. The overall trend, however, cannot.
which is why I stated the new perks being put into the game, which decreases the odds of the perk bbq from appearing
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Psst don't tell anyone but Left Behind is has also appeared only once and it is six month longer in the pool. I think they want to force us to buy ... Oh right its free.
You can not cherry picking things and base a conspiracy theory on it. I mean, of course you can but that makes you look like a fool.
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@TheBean said:
I wish it was weighted. I don't buy in the shrine anyways. However I don't think making it 100% random every time is good. It should be weighted based on how many times it has shown up in the last 365 days.I mean, that would be nice, but I'm not asking for even that much. The only fairness I seek is in randomness.
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@Milord said:
Orion said:@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.
Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place.
Just want to say that's how politics work. :P Giving people what they want without fundamentally changing anything. I assume we used to complain about having to buy a killer to get their perk will lead to p2w (or something like that)? So they give us a 'solution' that can keep their profit level high.
Not that I want to push this 'conspiracy theory' or anything. I just think that this isn't that big of a stretch for a conspiracy theory.
Still, most paid perks have been on the Shrine. I'm not totally sure it's a conspiracy, even after running the numbers myself. Not even thinking about the amount of DLC or that it's possibly DLC perks are meant to be good to force buying them (if this is true, BHVR needs to step up their game lol). I'd like nothing more than to be proven wrong and catalogue this as "just an anomaly."
Sadly, with money and integrity at stake, I can't do that.
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@Rex_Huin said:
I have been researching the same issue for the last 6 months but don't really know what I'm doing and the results have been inconclusive.
I think it probably is random though based on some things I measured and recorded. Also I think there is a grace period when a new perk is released it cant go in the shrine for 6 weeks. Did you know that?Anyhow my calculations show there is an 80% chance of BBQ appearing sometime in February. So that's re-assuring.
Are you sure? The soonest I saw was the week after a DLC was released. Beyond that, I've seen many 2, 3, 4, and 5 weeks after. I could count them if you like, but I'm not so sure this is the case. Do you have a source for this? I'd love to update my data if so.
I'm very glad someone else is looking into it, and I'd love to compare data sometime!0 -
@terrortil said:
First of all your math is off. A perk can not appear twice in one shrine. Second I am pretty sure there is a rule that prevents perks appear in successive weeks. It never happened and would be very unfair. So the probabilities are different each second week.This makes the BBQ probability higher for each period.
BUT: statistics /= probability
Just because your data does not match your mathematical expectations means that the data are wrong. Statistical deviations are natural. If they did not exist, I would be sure that the data are fake.
A very good response. I'd love a source on successive weeks- I suppose I wasn't looking for that in the trend, and thought it to be chance. I'm also unsure about perks from the save character, though that happened often early on. I wish I had the formula or some more details to check.
In my math, I assume two chances for BBQ (AKA, killer slot 1 and killer slot 2), not BBQ twice. When all is said and done, the rest canceled, making it look very fake.
Still, if I'm wrong, please redo an example and I'll check again. I'd rather be right than popular.
I do understand the deviations are normal, and in fact, were there no outliers then I'd have far more reason to suspect the data. However, at 460 trials, this seems to be more of a trend. Besides Period 1, it's always negative, sometimes overwhelmingly so. One would expect there to be some good variation in the negative and postive acrual-expected, but the data doesn't corroborate this.0 -
@mimzy630 said:
In my math, I assume two chances for BBQ (AKA, killer slot 1 and killer slot 2), not BBQ twice. When all is said and done, the rest canceled, making it look very fake.
Still, if I'm wrong, please redo an example and I'll check again. I'd rather be right than popular.Chance of BBQ per week: 2chances for BBQ/27teachable killer perks = 7.41%
The first perk has a 1/27 probability, the second has a 1/26 since our first perk left the pool and can not be drawn again. This gives us about 7,55%.
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When I first read through everything, I was almost sure there would be some kind of miscalculation in the math, but I'll be damned, the math is right on. 1.89% is a small enough chance to wonder about. However, the chance of flipping a coin 6 times and getting heads all 6 times is 1.56% and I'm sure people have seen that happen plenty enough to not immediately assume something is rigged. This is at the point where I would definitely be questioning it, but I don't think it's at the point where you can assume it's rigged yet.
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You don't know if it's random or not. BHVR has the ultimate knowledge behind the shrine system. We are just assuming things and it's more than suspicious that especially the perk BBQ, the number 1 selling point for buying Leatherface doesn't appear.Orion said:@mimzy630 said:
@DwightsLifeMatters said:
I have absolutely the feeling aswell that the shrine is rigged, thanks for the statistics to make it even clear.To everyone who says "but it's RNG, you don't know what RNG is" at least have the balls then and admit that the shrine is busted and needs rework so locking meta perks like BBQ behind a paywall for over 1 year doesn't happen.
Err, I appreciate the sentiment, but I'd rather random "fair" than a fixed "fair" (i.e., force BBQ on Shrine yearly isn't random).
No, you wouldn't.
Random is what we have now, but because you don't understand probability (standard deviation, confidence interval, the difference between a set average and an expected value, the law of large numbers - just to name a few), you've falsely concluded it's rigged.
Were it pseudo-random, to compensate for the inherent, well, randomness of RNG, it'd artificially increase the probability of perks that have appeared less on the Shrine, in order to seem more fair, thus giving you the result that feels more natural and intuitive - the result that you want.
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If the shrine wouldn't exist we had a clear and obvious pay2win game. And hopefully you are aware that pay2win mechanics in games are for me and many others reason number 1 not to buy the game in the first place. With the shrine we have a less obvious pay2win mechanic aka "just wait till it appears" but in reality you can wait till you die so you give up and buy the DLC to get access to the perks you need.Orion said:@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
I will say, however, that this is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place.
Smart move from bhvr business perspective, but absolutely disgusting from a customers perspective.1 -
@DwightsLifeMatters said:
You don't know if it's random or not. BHVR has the ultimate knowledge behind the shrine system. We are just assuming things and it's more than suspicious that especially the perk BBQ, the number 1 selling point for buying Leatherface doesn't appear.Many other perks have also never appeared. You're reading into this one and ignoring all the rest because of confirmation bias.
Coincidences can and do happen, from time to time.@DwightsLifeMatters said:
If the shrine wouldn't exist we had a clear and obvious pay2win game. And hopefully you are aware that pay2win mechanics in games are for me and many others reason number 1 not to buy the game in the first place. With the shrine we have a less obvious pay2win mechanic aka "just wait till it appears" but in reality you can wait till you die so you give up and buy the DLC to get access to the perks you need.
Smart move from bhvr business perspective, but absolutely disgusting from a customers perspective.Like all conspiracy theories, this hinges on the presumption that the devs are simultaneously clever enough to create the Shrine without any bugs involving probability, despite the fact that we've seen them screw up rarities in Bloodwebs, but also incompetent enough to disregard the fact that a compiled list of data could show they're trying to shaft us.
You're right. It's much less likely that this is just the end result of a truly random system. Do you and OP also believe that the lottery is rigged in such a way that you two never win the grand prize?0 -
@terrortil said:
Psst don't tell anyone but Left Behind is has also appeared only once and it is six month longer in the pool. I think they want to force us to buy ... Oh right its free.You can not cherry picking things and base a conspiracy theory on it. I mean, of course you can but that makes you look like a fool.
All of Bill's perks were removed from the Shrine of Secrets pool because they are are base free on consoles. It would be odd to have different shrines for different platforms, so upon Freddy patch, they were taken out of the Shrine.
I... Well, you could say BBQ is a conspiracy, but literally comparing every perk that has shown up in the Shrine can't possibly be called cherry-picking. That's picking the entire field, lol.0 -
@terrortil said:
@mimzy630 said:
In my math, I assume two chances for BBQ (AKA, killer slot 1 and killer slot 2), not BBQ twice. When all is said and done, the rest canceled, making it look very fake.
Still, if I'm wrong, please redo an example and I'll check again. I'd rather be right than popular.Chance of BBQ per week: 2chances for BBQ/27teachable killer perks = 7.41%
The first perk has a 1/27 probability, the second has a 1/26 since our first perk left the pool and can not be drawn again. This gives us about 7,55%.
I should probably have written it all out instead of using shorthand. It's much better to calculate not based on the probability of something happening, but of it not happening. You can't merely add two probabilities together ((1/27)+(1/26) would be incorrect). Rather, take the probability of no BBQ for two trials (26/27)*(25/26)=92.6%, subtract 1 and take the absolute value to get the probability of BBQ, which ends up being 7.407%, which I rounded to 7.41%. Unintuitive, I know. Of course, if you multiply out the fraction, you get 650/702, which reduces to 25/27, which if you do the whole "-1, take absolute value," reduces to 2/27.
I agree, I didn't think it was right at first. I began by making the same mistake as you until my math teach schooled me.0 -
Mate, I'm not here to convince you about anything. If you want to believe that the shrine is absolutly legit, hey that's completely fine you can believe what you want Idc.Orion said:@DwightsLifeMatters said:
You don't know if it's random or not. BHVR has the ultimate knowledge behind the shrine system. We are just assuming things and it's more than suspicious that especially the perk BBQ, the number 1 selling point for buying Leatherface doesn't appear.Many other perks have also never appeared. You're reading into this one and ignoring all the rest because of confirmation bias.
Coincidences can and do happen, from time to time.@DwightsLifeMatters said:
If the shrine wouldn't exist we had a clear and obvious pay2win game. And hopefully you are aware that pay2win mechanics in games are for me and many others reason number 1 not to buy the game in the first place. With the shrine we have a less obvious pay2win mechanic aka "just wait till it appears" but in reality you can wait till you die so you give up and buy the DLC to get access to the perks you need.
Smart move from bhvr business perspective, but absolutely disgusting from a customers perspective.Like all conspiracy theories, this hinges on the presumption that the devs are simultaneously clever enough to create the Shrine without any bugs involving probability, despite the fact that we've seen them screw up rarities in Bloodwebs, but also incompetent enough to disregard the fact that a compiled list of data could show they're trying to shaft us.
You're right. It's much less likely that this is just the end result of a truly random system. Do you and OP also believe that the lottery is rigged in such a way that you two never win the grand prize?
I'm personally just very surprised that you r so convinced that the shrine is legit as if you personally designed and coded the shrine by yourself. That's it. Just try not to be that naive so you walk around a little blind thinking that business is in favour for the customer that's it.
I could be wrong, you could be wrong. We will never know. But at least I'm not saying that the shrine is 100% rigged and it's the ultimate truth. I'm aware what RNG is and that this really could be RNG. But as I said, how I'm watching the shrine since it got released I have the tendency to believe it's rigged0 -
@Dehitay said:
When I first read through everything, I was almost sure there would be some kind of miscalculation in the math, but I'll be damned, the math is right on. 1.89% is a small enough chance to wonder about. However, the chance of flipping a coin 6 times and getting heads all 6 times is 1.56% and I'm sure people have seen that happen plenty enough to not immediately assume something is rigged. This is at the point where I would definitely be questioning it, but I don't think it's at the point where you can assume it's rigged yet.I don't think my justification for BBQ is as strong, so I put it at the bottom. If it dips below 1%, then I think it will be truly significant. Based on this feedback, I might go more in-depth about other outliers seen in the Shrine, and whether there's any correlation with them being meta and/or paid. However, the general free to paid trend has far more trials and far more backing, so I encourage you to look at that.
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@DwightsLifeMatters said:
Orion said:@mimzy630 said:
@Orion said:
Your analysis doesn't take into account the fact that new perks are entered into the pool on a fairly regular basis, and that the perks from the base game, having been there the longest, will show a higher frequency.
Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the percentages correct, and to account to change over time.
Regarding BBQ, Bubba is a pretty old killer. I can't compare his perks to other per-se, but I can at least show the anomaly that is BBQ. Thank you for commenting, but please, do read my numbers.
I will say, however, that this is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. If the devs wanted to force the players' hands by making DLC perks inaccessible, they could've just not made the Shrine of Secrets in the first place.
If the shrine wouldn't exist we had a clear and obvious pay2win game. And hopefully you are aware that pay2win mechanics in games are for me and many others reason number 1 not to buy the game in the first place. With the shrine we have a less obvious pay2win mechanic aka "just wait till it appears" but in reality you can wait till you die so you give up and buy the DLC to get access to the perks you need.
Smart move from bhvr business perspective, but absolutely disgusting from a customers perspective.Yeah, I'm hoping it is random, just unfortunate for us. I wouldn't mind this. However, considering all the other things they've been breaking and their hasty change of Shrine generation (?) or at least Shrine updating to cover the "change date" exploit people were using to access any shrine way back when (believe me, if I knew about this before it was fixed, I would have BBQ) leads me to wonder what their formula is. I don't mind the annoying randomness if it's at least open. I'd most like BHVR to reveal its formula, not only as good will but as confirmation that all this BBQ, paid, etc. nonsense is just nonsense, and I can go ahead and buy Leatherface with a clean conscience lol.
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@Orion said:
@DwightsLifeMatters said:
You don't know if it's random or not. BHVR has the ultimate knowledge behind the shrine system. We are just assuming things and it's more than suspicious that especially the perk BBQ, the number 1 selling point for buying Leatherface doesn't appear.Many other perks have also never appeared. You're reading into this one and ignoring all the rest because of confirmation bias.
Coincidences can and do happen, from time to time.@DwightsLifeMatters said:
If the shrine wouldn't exist we had a clear and obvious pay2win game. And hopefully you are aware that pay2win mechanics in games are for me and many others reason number 1 not to buy the game in the first place. With the shrine we have a less obvious pay2win mechanic aka "just wait till it appears" but in reality you can wait till you die so you give up and buy the DLC to get access to the perks you need.
Smart move from bhvr business perspective, but absolutely disgusting from a customers perspective.Like all conspiracy theories, this hinges on the presumption that the devs are simultaneously clever enough to create the Shrine without any bugs involving probability, despite the fact that we've seen them screw up rarities in Bloodwebs, but also incompetent enough to disregard the fact that a compiled list of data could show they're trying to shaft us.
You're right. It's much less likely that this is just the end result of a truly random system. Do you and OP also believe that the lottery is rigged in such a way that you two never win the grand prize?Harsh arguments, but ones I should address. BBQ itself does seem to be confirmation bias. If I did a more in-depth analysis on paid perks as a whole, then maybe I could prove something-
Oh right, I did. Still, I can see how BHVR could mess up a simple formula. All the more reason to publicize it, to quell doubts and foster open practices for time to come. I mean, what, are they worried someone is going to exploit (what is probably) their Googling of Random.org and picking two numbers between 1 and 42, no repeats, twice?Really, the only reason to be so elusive, especially when criticism like this comes out, is if the formula ISN'T random.
Though, if BHVR somehow has its own RNG generator (perhaps some alpha particle emitters in a back room somewhere), my respect will go up for them about 100 fold.
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i personally dont care about the shrine.
i just unlock a killers teachables as soon as i can, so i wont have to buy them with shards and instead can go and buy some neat cosmetics with them
so, yeah... if you want BBQ, just level your Bubba.
if you dont have him... sucks to be you i guess xDbut yeah, i might be up for an idea that makes the shrine of secrets prefer perks you havent unlocked yet, so you have a higher chance at getting what you want. there would also be a reason then to buy the ones you dont like, as this would increase your chance to get a perk you want next time.
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@Mister_xD said:
i personally dont care about the shrine.
i just unlock a killers teachables as soon as i can, so i wont have to buy them with shards and instead can go and buy some neat cosmetics with themso, yeah... if you want BBQ, just level your Bubba.
if you dont have him... sucks to be you i guess xDbut yeah, i might be up for an idea that makes the shrine of secrets prefer perks you havent unlocked yet, so you have a higher chance at getting what you want. there would also be a reason then to buy the ones you dont like, as this would increase your chance to get a perk you want next time.
The Shrine is the same for every player. That wouldn't work.
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I think people focus to much on the bbq here. The more interesting finding is that in every single period we see less paid perk compared to free perk than what's expected. Granted the math isn't perfect, but from what I know, given free perk appears more often than expected, using a more rigorous math would only widen the gap between the real paid perk rate compared to the expected paid perk rate.
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@Milord said:
I think people focus to much on the bbq here. The more interesting finding is that in every single period we see less paid perk compared to free perk than what's expected. Granted the math isn't perfect, but from what I know, given free perk appears more often than expected, using a more rigorous math would only widen the gap between the real paid perk rate compared to the expected paid perk rate.Yeah, if I go ahead and take into account some.new findings, the overall wouldn't change that much but it would continue to widen. I agree, BBQ was more of an afterthought due to it being popular and a well-known.nomaly.
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