Is the game balanced?
I played 6 matches of survivor and 6 matches of killer between yesterday and today. I was surprised to see the results. I may do more of these in the future with more matches played. As killer I play for hooks and as survivor I play mainly for challenges.
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No, the game is not balanced. Its usally just a coincidence.
The game can never be balanced, because you would have to balance swf and solo around killer. Thats not going to happen.
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No, but it doesn't want to be, either. It just wants to convince people they're not getting robbed in matches so they'll continue to play.
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This game will never be balanced due to SWF.
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No, DbD is not balanced. It never was. Nor will it ever be. Your data has the problem of the small number. In statistics, you can only do something with data from 30.
I played 127 matches as survivor in the season that ends tomorrow. Of these, 92 matches were in solo q. Of these, I escaped in 31.19%. I think that's a very high score. There are 5 people participating in a match. If at least 1 person has to win in each match, the expected value for my win rate would be 1/5, or 20%. That 20% includes an inaccuracy, so you can't really calculate it that way. However, IMO it is a workable estimate.
I played 18 killer matches, partly because of the rift challenges. 18 is too few to make any statements.
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Too many factors and too much RNG to ever be "balanced" not to mention skill level has a huge impact.
But if we take the average killer, average survivors that can do average chases and do gens on an average map probably close to balance.
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Where are people getting these stats from?
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Myself. I do games and I write stats based on how games go.
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Ill try again since I wasnt specific
Where is OP getting that image with stats from? Clearly from a database, and probably 3rd party website. Where is it from so I can go check it out.
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Here you go. Sorry for not being specific too. It's good to track your own games and see how you're doing.
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Kind of, but matchmaking is absolutely not balanced. You're extremely unlikely to get 4 similarly skilled survivors matched against a similarly skilled killer. And even if you do, the game has no way to quantify how hard any of those players are trying, and builds have wild degrees of varying strength.
The game throws casual and competitive players into the same queue and then matches them across a fairly wide range of skill. Even if the game is more or less balanced, they don't tune matchmaking to be balanced.
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Between those 6 escapes and kills there are 0 escapes or 0 kills and then 4 kills and 4 escapes. Sometimes even 3 kills and sometimes 3 escapes. If you do the math, you get this. At least for me. It can change based on each player of course
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Your math is a bit off because there isn’t a single lone winner in the match because multiple survivors escaping is much more likely than a single lone survivor escaping.
The aggregate site I follow has an overall kill rate of about 55%, up from about 49% prior to the big perk reworks. That seems about in line with other estimates I’ve seen so I think that 55% number is pretty good for the overall among non-new players. (It’s probably a few percent higher if you add in relatively new players). It doesn’t differentiate between solo and swf, and the devs numbers have implied there’s about a 4% increase in escape rate or so per extra person in your swf (so it’s like +4% if you are in a 2 person swf, +8% for 3 and +12% for 4). So that 55% is probably something like a 50% kill rate again 4 person swfs up to about a 63% kill rate against solo queues. (Note that this estimate isn’t that far off from your 31% escape rate in pure solo queue.)
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Short answer: No
Long answer: That's a more complicated question than you realize. As it is an asymmetrical game, TRUE balance is and always will be impossible. However, that's not necessarily a bad thing. To me at least it makes things interesting.
However, generally speaking, DBD is more balanced than it has been in the past.
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I can't follow your logic. Your math is as off as mine, I think.
If you add the likelihood of 2 survivors escaping, 3 survivors escaping and 4 survivors escaping, this is not the point. The point is the personal chance to survive for every player. 5 players, at least 1 must win, we can start with 20%. Then, out of my 127 matches, 46 times 0 survivors escaped, meaning the killer won wih 4k. 24 times 1 survivor escaped, meaning, the escaped survivor and the killer won, because a 3k counts as a win. 12 times 2 survivors escaped, meaning, the escaped survivors won and the killer got a tie. 26 times 3 survivors escaped, meaning these survivors won and the killer lost. 19 times all survivors escaped, meaning all survivors won and the killer lost. So, one day perhaps I am going to calculate the odds, but it seems to be tricky.
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Ah I see, I misunderstood you, when you said “20% chance to win” I thought you meant “20% chance to escape” which wouldn’t be correct.
As far as the breakdown on the aggregate site, it’s
- 0 kills 20%
- 1 kill 18%
- 2 kills 13%
- 3 kills 18%
- 4 kills 31%
So if you go by the 3-4 kill is a win, 0-1 is a loss and 2 is a tier metric then it’s about a 49% chance of a killer win, a 13% chance of a draw and a 38% chance of a survivor team win.
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Maps and Gens make it hard to say that this game is balanced
Maps: either need to figure out Loops and spawns or decrease (or increase in size)
Gens: either increase base Gen regression or remove the 10 extra charges on Gens
Also perks are a much bigger deal then before... cause they changed 40 perks last mid-chapter
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You still would have to separate between swf and solo q. And even if I solo q I can meet a 3 swf or 2swf without knowing it.
In my matches (swf and solo q):
0 kills: 15%
1 kill: 20%
2 kills: 9%
3 kills: 20%
4 kills: 36%
This equals your numbers, and so there would be a 56% chance in my survivor matches, that the killer wins. So we calculated the chance for killers to win. But how to calculate the chance for survivors to win? It is either escape or die. And in my matches (solo q only) this ratio is 31,19%.
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I think the game is very balance, actually. It just doesn't feel balanced because honestly, it can really depend on which map you get on how you will do surv vs killer.
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It’s trickier with solo and swf but you can experiment with scenarios under the estimate that the overall solo escape rate should be about 4% lower than swf per person beyond the first in the swf.
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Nothing about the game is balanced.
- Maps are incredibly unbalanced, the RNG in the generations is actually crazy.
- Killers are unbalanced, look at the spread between Nurse and Trapper.
- Survivors are unbalanced.
- The massive gap between SWF and SoloQ.
- The gap between small and near silent Kate and huge and loud Jeff.
- Perks are unbalanced. About 20 are meta and the rest are meh.
- Matchmaking is unbalanced. Too often does the game make teams out of SoloQs where there are 1-2 good survivors paired with 2-3 soon-to-be-mashed potatoes.
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Definitely better than before but still not balanced. Good survivors will absolutely destroy killers but at the same time most of solo survivors gets destroyed by the good killers. Devs still continuing to make maps more unbalanced af, matchmaking system is still really bad and most of killers basekits/addons are weak to compete against good survivors.
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