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As always, not that you shouldn't know but stats mean nothing.
Stats cant be used for arguments or to prove points, they really dont show any useful information to us so please try refrain from using them as such. Think of them as a little fun nothing more.
Like do we really think plague can out perform nurse against the strongest survivors? Definitely not.
Edit:
I'm out.
I cant be bothered to deal with people that say you can use stats for "this" bit not "that".
No you're just twisting the stats to suit your own thoughts and opinions. You cant take what you want and disregard the rest. You do you though, notifications off.
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They don't hold the worth that most people thnk they do, but they definitely have more worth than your giving them.
So you think Pinhead is one of the top killers in all MMR because he's particularly strong? No, it's because he has a massive advantage against Solo Queue.
The stats can provide us with some insight. They aren't completely useless.
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Pinhead beats bad players yes I'm aware, but should bad players win? Like people low mmr barely do gens without passive slowdown... but I Can say I haven't seen a pinhead win without someone giving up or DCing through entitlement.
The stats arent useful to us, we dont know at all what's going on unless you somehow think plague is stronger than nurse...
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It probably gives us some clues as to what's happening. What is one area where Pinhead outclasses Nurse? Slowdown perk synergy and game delay. What about killers like Sadako or Freddy? They theoretically have more mobility to kick gens and synergize with the slowdown meta. The strongest thing a killer can do is extend the game.
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Plague is nowhere near stronger than Nurse, but she's easier to get a handle on, so she's easier to succeed with. She also has one of the smaller groups of people that play her (as far as I remember.) Nurse is played a lot, but not always well. If her smaller playerbase gets more kills than Nurse, yeah, she has a higher kill-rate.
That's true, yeah, there's a lot we don't know but that doesn't make the stat's useless.
Pinhead having easier wins against Solo Queue doesn't mean only bad players lose against him. It could just as easily mean having one bad player against Pinhead can make a whole team lose.
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The stats are certainly incomplete and don't show the whole picture, but I wouldn't say they hold no ground. For example, the stats show that Sadako is surprisingly effective in high mmr.
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Or those killers are just picked more at the lower mmr where all killers are naturally stronger. A place where survivors are slow on gens, people can't look behind them and they reply heavily on terror radius etc.
The stats arent anything to go off sadly, we dont know how often people give up, the maps played on, if they was matched correctly and not some random mmr thrown in etc.
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So the top 5% you think people cant play nurse? So only the top 0.000001% can and that's why everyone wants nurse nerfed because they're all above that?
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Can no one read...
Sadako was near the top for ALL MMRS, not the top mmrs..
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Oh my brother is trying to use these to justify Sadako as being OP, and specifically she has "unmatched map coverage"
As a Sadako main, I love my angry ghost girl. I do. But unmatched? Sure, if we ignore half the Killer roster AND Survivora dont turn off *insert your rival political party here* news
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No. It's hard to say with Nurse, because most of the time, people DC or kill themselves against her.
As Rizzo confirmed in another thread, (this one https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/discussion/351132/freddy-4k-krueger#latest ) DC's are not taken into account for these stats.
Nurse's stats could be far higher than we know.
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She's in the 61% kill rate with Oni, Pinhead, Blight, Nurse, and Spirit in the top 5% mmr graph. With Dredge (62%), Plauge (63%) and Wesker (65%) being the only killers ahead of her.
Looking at the exact kill rate values by mmr, she's the top 6 killer in top 5% mmr.
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If people killed themselves stats would go up...
And yes but you're saying stats can be used for one thing and not for others, it doesnt work that way. Stats are so misleading and the community should never look at them tbh
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Right and plague is the second strongest killer in the game...
Ugh stop using stats that don't actually mean anything to us.
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All I said was the stats show that Sadako is doing surprisingly well in high mmr. Which given she has the 6th highest kill rate out of 29 killers is good.
At no point am I claiming that Plague is the 2nd strongest killer in the game or that Sadako is the 6th strongest killer.
Acting like the stats show absolutely nothing is just as wrong as thinking the stats show the whole picture.
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shes not weak.....people that say shes weak are those that just arent good using her
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Yes, they would, but we don't know what the stat's include.
BHVR can see that stats of how often survivors t-bag per match, you think they can't tell if a player kills themselves? Admitedly, we don't know if those are inluded or not.
i really have no idea what you mean. Statistics inherently work that way. Incomplete as these stats are, we can still glean things from them.
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I'm out.
I cant be bothered to deal with people that say you can use stats for "this" bit not "that".
No you're just twisting the stats to suit your own thoughts and opinions. You cant take what you want and disregard the rest. You do you though, notifications off.
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Someone really doesn't want to admit that Sadako isn't doing poorly.
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Never said that, nor do I think shes the weakest.
Once again twist words like you twist the stats to suit you. Use the stats all you like, I'm just gonna ignore it.
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But all of those things are eventually going to amount to noise after tens of thousands of matches. That's the point of big data. It's to draw an overall conclusion based on a sorting method, in this all MMR ranges and top 5%. I'm sure the kill rates would look different if we sorted for top 1% on Mount Ormond, but that's not what these charts are even trying to reflect.
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You got upset that my first post in your topic was pointing out that the stats do show something such as Sadako is doing well in high mmr. Top 6 kill rate in high mmr is performing well.
I'm sorry you have some hatred for stats and refuse to accept any kind of reasonable interpretation of them.
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The truth is that the game isn’t filled with unbeatable Nurses that have zero counterplay. She’s not overpowering at the average level, and she’s not over performing at the top 5%. The majority of Nurses you’ll face against in games, aren’t overpowered.
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Plague second strongest heck yeah! Go stats!
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No one is saying this.
I'm sorry you can't have a reasonable discussion about stats.
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Sorry you can use stats to say sadako is good but plague isnt one of the best even though the stats show it like your point.
Picking and choosing like I said.
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Can we talk about the fact that the kill rates are so similar? Plague, Nurse, and half of the killer roster is within a 3% kill rate of each other, at the top 5% of MMR. Half the roster might as well be in the same tier.
We aren’t talking about the tier lists that players like to make, where killers are in completely different tiers, and are expected to have massively different kill rates. A 3% difference is barely noticeable.
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If I was saying that Sadako was the 6th best killer in the game, then your point on plague being the 2nd best killer in the game would work.
But all I'm saying is that Sadako is doing well in high mmr something that people have generally said wasn't true because she was weak.
Idk why this is such a hard concept for you to grasp.
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Because it doesn't support the narrative of "Killers are still weak, survivors op :("
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There's no need to be like this about this. Slow down and reread what Crowman is saying.
They aren't saying Sadako is strong.
They aren't saying she's the best.
They are simply saying that Sadako performs well in terms of Kills at both high MMR and all MMR brackets.
That is not an unreasonable interpretation of the stats presented.
You are right that these stats can't say much, but they can tell us what it is like for these Killers (on average) at both all MMR levels and high MMR.
For whatever reason, games with Onyro are roughly the same as games with Nurse and Blight - they all have a 61% Kill average.
Is that because Sadako's played less? Is that because people hook suicide? Is that because she can phase through bodyblocks and tunnel more efficiently? Maybe her in-and-out invisibility and short height are still effective gimmicks even at the highest level of play?
We don't know. You're right that the data can't tell us much.
But it can show us that Sadako is maintaining a 61% killrate even in the top 5% of MMR.
And that's all Crowman was saying. It's surprising she is doing well at high MMR.
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OP is right, in the sense that these stats are, like every time they get released, basically fodder for confirmation bias and outcome bias. Its not that they have no value, its that their value is going to be distorted by pretty much anyone who uses them in pretty much any stance. They're meant purely to be "fun statistics" that are taken with a monumental grain of salt, and the amount of missing context around them makes them too incomplete to use outside of the most specific of insights. Even within that very post they try to reiterate that with
It’s worth noting that many factors are taken into account when it comes to balancing killer powers and character perks, not only data.For example: one thing that could be gleaned from them would be that sadako players have found ways to give her a consistency to avoiding 0ks that works at all MMRs. The fact that her performance is much higher in all MMRs but still in the top half at high MMRs could be used to deduce that she performs better against lower MMRs, but that even at high MMRs she is more likely to have at least 1 or 2 kills but not necessarily much more. This would be the type of information that could also be used to determine various other hypothesis, such as "is her power less intuitive to understand how to counter it without advanced game knowledge" as well. Its wildly incomplete, and gives the type of insight that the devs then use to combine with other statistics to further evaluate from there.
It has uses, but not for us, basically. I honestly don't like when they release these types of stats for that very reason: they really need to be both sterilized to account for their flawed nature (suicides on hook, for example) and simultaneously broken down for their sheer range of variables (maps, addons, swf, events, etc) to be more clearly understood. The only real value that anyone from the outside could glean from them is exactly what they are: the difference between average performance in various MMRs. Even then, it kinda shows that not only is a killer like nurse not unstoppable, but she is more likely to be boosted to higher MMRs than she belongs compared to many other killers (and even that is an unfair assessment, regardless of being a logical conclusion.)
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Top 5% is a meaningless stat, because the MMR cap is 1700. To put that into perspective, i play lots of chess. My rating is around 1600. Magnus Carlsen, the world champion, has a rating of 2856. But BHVR would cap him at 1700. The reality is though, if i played him 1000 games, i'd never win and would maybe get a draw in a handful of games. Because of that statistics are skewed no matter what. Because a pig with 10k hours and a proper rating of 2800 will get matched against 1700 MMR survivors and will likely 4k without even a sweat. Just as a nurse with 200 hours and 1700 rating will get matched against a 2800 rated SWF kill squad like this:
Because of that, the stats are basically useless unless they specifically break down the top players vs the same top players. Like, let's say they actually track MMR about 1700 but it just caps for matchmaking purposes. What are the stats of the players with 2k rating playing against players with the same (or relatively the same) rating? That would be much more meaningful and useful.
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Reminder that all of these figures fall within a range of 58% to 63%, which is still an average of a 2K.
Meaningless or not (it is completely meaningless but lets presume there's a reality in which that's not the case) when applied to any single game, you're not going to feel any tangible difference.
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How are these things remotely comparable?
DBD MMR isn't using the same system as your Chess rating. These things are entirely relative.
What's the lower cap on your chess rating?
How is it calculated? Does a single game of chess increase/decrease your chess rating by how much based on a win/loss? Is that amount adjusted based on the relative chess rating difference between you and your opponent?
BHVR have confirmed that, under peak matchmaking conditions, the 'top players' are generally matched with others in the top 7% of MMR ratings. So it's not meaningless to say there is a top MMR bracket of players who mostly face each other. But it's not so broad that these are playing newbies every other game, or so narrow that it's a tiny pool of the same SWFs and Nurses game after game.
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How are they not comparable? I'm not talking about MMR gains or losses, i'm simply talking about the idea of MMR/Elo (MMR is just elo BTW). In this example, according to BHVR, it is possible for magnus to be matched against me in chess due to how their matchmaking system works, if chess used a similar system for matching opponents together.
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The chess analogy doesn’t work, because that isn’t how DBD’s matchmaking works. The comparable data for DBD would be stats for the MMR range that a soft cap player would normally see, because that is the highest bracket that DBD does matchmaking.
TD;LR this game doesn’t reliably match 2,000 MMR survivors with 2,000 MMR killers, so those stats aren’t useful for balance purposes.
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Wait, you said "it doesn't work" and then state the exact reason "it does work" the point is that matchmaking is matching 1700s with 2800s. Maybe not on a regular basis, but it CAN.
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The 2800s would get matched with 1700s far more often than they would with other 2800s, and there isn’t a way to force matchmaking to match 2800s with other 2800s. It doesn’t matter of DBD’s matchmaking could theoretically match a 2800 with another 2800, because it’s not happening at a large enough percentage to be useful for data.
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These stats show the live balance, not base balance. And they mean everything about live balance, they literally show us what the killing/survival experience is like on average in public matchmaking, which is the live game environment. Doesn't mean the stats wouldn't change if players of equal skill, experience, etc. faced off all the time, but the fact of the game reality simply is that they don't. The MMR cap also does not render the stats meaningless, because that MMR cap exists in reality and leads to matches happening in reality as they do. For that reality you can say that a player playing killer X at MMR Y is on average performing well. Doesn't mean they would necessarily still be performing as well on average if they played against hand-picked opponents or if the MMR cap were to be removed, but that's just not the reality of this game, the reality is in the matches that the live game actually yields, and that live balance reality is documented by these stats. That the game is killer-sided statistically in its live balance is simply a fact, and while that doesn't mean it is necessarily killer-sided in the same way from a base balance perspective (i. e. in a controlled environment where you actually pit equal players against each other), it does mean that players playing killer in pubs are on average killing more survivors than they have escape, even if they are a top MMR player.
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Pinhead can stomp swf as good too.
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That's my point, you are agreeing with me, so why are you arguing with me?
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For starters, if chess used a similar system to DBDs MMR, why would they have the same cap?
Just because you're chess rating is 1600, doesn't mean it's comparable to an MMR of 1600.
I'm level 82 in final fantasy but that doesn't mean it's comparable to an MMR of 82/1700.
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I didn't read this entire thread yet, but I just wanted to chime in that another thing to consider with Pinhead is console survivors. The default button mappings on Pinhead still have remove chains and vaulting pallets as the same button. If a survivor is at a loop and they try to remove the chains, they will slow vault the pallet right into Pinhead at the same time. This leads to easy downs for Pinhead, frustration hook suicides, etc. A lot of people don't want to change their mappings because of one killer (I am one of them). I don't like playing against Pinhead for this reason myself. I dropped survivor anyways because of the matchmaking in solo queue.
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exactly. concepts like inconsistency between control methods is another variable that is needed as context, especially regarding many killer powers. Killers like trickster are considerably more playable on M+K than controller for a variety of reasons, and even the performance issues of various platforms/machines are going to be a factor with many killers (and survivors as well.) Many of those variables can be offset by skill or compensation of course, but they are not an even playing field to compare.
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You want stats for survivors above the soft cap being matched only with survivors above the soft cap, because of chess.
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There are a lot of people on the forums who consistently say Sadako is literally the worst killer in the game. I think that’s what the person you replied to is talking about being “surprising”, that Sadako is average to above average on the 5% MMR chart kind of throws a wrench on those tier lists that have her at the bottom.
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I think their point was that the existence of a soft cap presents a statistical anomaly that is not accounted for when taken at face value. Its part of why its hard to put concepts like skill or even understanding/game sense into a numeric value, let alone compare them. Technically as long as a type of competition isn't "solved," there will always be variation, both in performance and within each "number" assignment. The softcap is applied in this game for matchmaking purposes, not necessarily to say that everything over x number will be considered even in terms of performance.
Edit: If i had to guess, chess was used either from an anecdotal sense, or to emphasize the concept of guaranteed resolution: Chess "mmr" would basically be limited only by how many steps in the future a player can think, paired with their repertoire of tactics and strategies they can use to manipulate said forethought's fruition.
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Keep in mind that the soft cap of 1600 is about where the 5% line would be assuming a normal distribution of ratings. (We estimated it in another thread as 1000 mean with 400 standard deviation, putting 1600 at about the top 6% or so.) And there is definitely a difference between that top 5% of players and the rest of the playerbase in terms of how they play the game. So it’s not an entirely meaningless distinction. A clear example from the charts, for instance, is how Nurse has a very low kill rate in the overall chart but is average to above average in the 5% chart. That’s almost certainly due to her learning curve.
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I love how killer mains reacted to 61% with “but wait, at top MMR it’s probably 20%!” And now that the stats for top MMR come out it’s “stats don’t matter”
Stats absolutely matter. If your personal stats for slipping on a banana peel every time you walk inside your home is above 50%, you just might start looking down when you open your door. Stats inform almost everything we do.
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Why not wonder why the hell there are random banana peels in your home instead?
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