General Discussions
General Discussions
A killer can only wipe out a survivor once in 16 games.
The other day, a result showed that the survival rate for a survivor is about 50%.
If so, the chance of the killer wiping out the survivors is 1/2 x 4 = 1/16.
Am I correct in understanding that the killer can only wipe out all survivors once in 16 games?
Comments
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Sounds about how often we manage to get the gens done and gates powered in solo
15 -
But whose fault is that? The killer's, or your teammates'?
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No, because this game tends towards snowballing.
If survivors are better than the killer, it's very easy to get 4 escapes or at least 3.
But if the killer is better than it's substantially easier to get a 4K or a 3K.
4K's might be rarer than 3K's due to the hatch mechanic, but 2K games are probably the rarest.
5 -
Where did they even remotely mention it was the killer’s fault?
And “fault” doesn’t negate the bad and miserable state that solo queue is anyway.
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Survivors survival rate is under 40% in most recent official stats. That means most often outcome is 2-3K. But though many matches end up other side dominating so 4K and 0-1K are more common result than you would think. Most my soloQ matches ends just like that. Either it's baby killer and we all get out or it's decent killer and we all die.
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And why would you think this are the only options, especially if you suggesting its someones fault to begin with?
4 -
Sorry. Sometimes you have to shake the tree to see what falls out.
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It's a popular sentiment.
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A SoloQ survivor definitely doesn't have a 50% chance of dying in a trial lol.
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That's assuming that games trend towards the average. In actuality, most games trend towards extremes, because those signify one team decisively won/lost - I see more 3-4ks and 4es than I see 2ks. And the difference between a 3k and a 4k is usually hatch, so they're almost synonymous.
4 -
In your wildest dream a survivor has 50% escape rate
2 -
Your math is wrong, not that it matters anyway. The game is balanced so that killers win 60% of the time, on average.
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Sorry but in what world is is a half times four suddenly one sixteenth????
0,5*4=2
Maybe i am missing some logical connection here but that calculation hurts my brain.
With a survival rate of 50%, 2 survivor die EACH MATCH on average.
Edit: Ah okay i think I got the mental gymnastics behind the argument.
You try to use stochastic calculation for the 4 k but that's not how that works since the individual survivor rate drops significantly the more survivor are dead,pallets are dropped and gens are done (aka the map gets smaller to patrol) in a match.
The survival rate isn't a constant like a coin toss. You can't calculate the 4k as
0,5*0,5*0,5*0,5= 1/16
(Also the correct abbreviated notation for this would be (1/2)^4 = 1/16 )
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you are assuming that the probability each survivor dies in the match is independent of the other results when they are not and thus your examination is flawed
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Not that this means anything, but I actually have a 50% escape rate exactly.
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This. Majority of games I play seem one sided. If survs struggle they probably wont power gates. If they gen rush and have a couple good loopers then they get 4 man escapes. As killer i see the odd 2 man escape in my more even games. As surv most of my 2ks seem to come from cheap NOED kills
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I like to keep a stats on my survivor games, and have since MMR came out a little over a year ago. 4ks are actually the most common result I see by far (27.7%), with second place being 1ks (19.4%). To quantify that a bit more, out of 1400 games I have recorded, there are over 100 more 4ks than there are 1ks. I chalk those two results being the most common due to how matches tend to snowball, but even when the survivors snowball a killer can usually secure a kill in endgame (especially after the changes to ds this summer)
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