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Soloq win rate 40%, for now.
With the rest of the killer roster due for updates, I'd wager the survivor win rate will go to around 35% by end of year.
Or will survivors magically "get good"?
Comments
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Those stats were before Billy, Grim Embrace and Gen buff.
I would not be suprised if we are already at that number. At least on Nightlight since this patch, killrate went up almost 4%.
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If the escape rate drops to 35% or lower, I’m sure the devs will in some significant way buff the survivor role.. the same way they bolstered killers to reach a 60% win rate.
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The only issue is there is close to no way to make the killer and survivor win rate a 50/50, and it seems like the devs are favoring buffing the killer role in any way they can while essentially ignoring the survivor role for now.
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They aren’t shooting for a 50/50 win rate (although they’re near that); they want a 60/40 kill-to-escape rate. If the kill rate falls out of their view of balance they would presumably make changes to bring the numbers back in line with this. That would require buffing survivors in meaningful ways (ways that help survivors escape their trials more).
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What a sad sorry version of a once great game we are in now. Survivors are supposed to be happy to even escape 40%.
Lets all unite that it wont fall lower then 30%!
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It's sad that they would rather make the killer impossible to escape from than to make the game balanced enough to where player skill actually came into it, but alas these forums wouldn't need to exist if they did that. I often wonder if the supposed 60/40 split is truly accurate or if it's just a statistic that's been manipulated simply by only looking at certain games or players that would help fit the narrative
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I can’t answer why they’ve decided on a 60/40 split beyond it somehow creates a near 50/50 win rate. And don’t ask me to explain how that works (I believe it has something to do with the game being a [1v1v1v1] v 1). Frankly, I don’t think it’s a good strategy. It killed games like Death Garden, VH1, Evolve, Evil Dead, and other asymmetrical games. But I’m sure the devs have a reason I just can’t see.
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It's statistics really.
The way the game is designed is such that. If you get one kill. The probability that you get another kill is significantly higher than just getting 2 kills. And same for 3 and 4 kills.
This basically means that games are usually 4 escapes or 4 (3 kills 1 hatch) kills.
So going for 60/40 actually means either side in theory. Wins half the time.
You also need to remember that 1 kill/3 escape counts as a loss.
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It all depends on the build and the player. I only play Solo Survivor, because I love the Challenge and i don't want to offend anyone, but SWF feels like cheating to me.
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40% sounds pretty impressive, not gonna lie. My personal escape rate already hovers consistently around 20-30%, including pity hatch escapes (I'm currently tracking my games to see if I can ever achieve a 40% escape rate). I guess I'm just bad at this game and nothing is likely to change that.
I don't think DBD has a good enough match making system or a big enough player base (at least in my region) to give everyone queuing up appropriate opponents. I've spent the night queuing up for several minutes to load into lobbies where the Killer had at least double the amount of hours the Survivors had (and I had double theirs again, not that it helped me much in the end).
From my experience as both Killer and Survivor, The Killer is almost always at least slightly better than the lobby they get matched with (with ocassional extremes either way). I wonder if that's intentional and helps BHVR maintain the 60/40 split.
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it's not that they cant reach a 50/50, its that the devs dont want to, and for good reason. The game should be favored 60/40 in the killers favor. Sometimes I think survivors keep forgetting that they should not be capable of beating the killer in any kind of 1v1.
Its also easy to forget that for the overwhelming majority of this game, survivors got more love from the devs then killers did. (Day one player here.) For the first time in this game's history, the killers are getting a bit more love then survivors, and its lead to kill rates being at the 60/40 rate they should have always been at.
Quite frankly, I think the Devs are nailing it. It took them way to long to get here, but I'm glad this game is finally in a healthy state
Post edited by Sandt1985 on9 -
Killer has to be slightly better or else people won't play the role.
Remember pre 6.1.0 in early 2022 where Survivor Queue times was 10 minutes? Devs don't want that to happen again.
I'm not even sure if the DBD population is large enough that players could get games quickly without having too much of a skill level gap at this point in time.
Edit: If the devs know what they are doing, they are probably monitoring the amount of Survivors/Killers they have on hand constantly. 1 Killer for every 4 Survivors. Perhaps devs have come to the conclusion from their data that they have excess Survivor players that they can afford to "lose" as compared to Killer players. Their previous AMA also highlighted that further improving the Solo Queue experience isn't a huge priority for the devs so they probably came to the conclusion that it's fine even if some solo queue players stop playing or transition into playing swf/killer
Post edited by appleas on4 -
I remember survivor ques being 20+ minuets. I could legit watch an entire episode of a show and the que would still be going lol.
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The solo queue escape rate is already below 40%. Even killer mains like Otz immediately acknowledged this after the stats came out. One of the largest problems in solo queue is people giving up at the slightest inconvenience. Of course in many cases people also give up due to the game being a lost cause. The fact that they still didn't count games with a disconnect proves that they are statistically very significant. I feel like I am being gaslit into thinking that solo is in a better spot than it actually is. Common sense says the real escape rate is probably more like 35%. As someone else said this doesn't even take grim embrace, billy buff, etc into account. Then we have another big wave of killer buffs coming in the new update. I do wonder how many buffs they feel like killers need before they are satisfied.
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This^^^^
The statistics is way lower than 40% obviously. Anybody who plays solo q or watch twitch streamers would know this. i get a DC on average every five games at least. I can understand why DCs isnt included in the stats but solo q survivors lose way more because of this. I wouldn't believe anything pass a 30% win rate in Solo Q for an average player.
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I don’t recall queue times ever being 10 minutes or more for survivor. Not in my region anyway. And I played well before patch 6.1.0. To that point the survivor role requires 4x the players as the killer role or there can be no game. So the devs should want people to play that role as well.
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I assume we are in different regions. I play in the SEA region and it was commonplace for SEA dbd streamers to have 10 min queue times. @MrPenguin also echoed a similar experience so the long queue times definitely wasn't a figment of my imagination.
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I’m not suggesting it’s untrue; just stating that wasn’t my experience. And like you, I’m sure I’m not alone in that. The main idea here though is that both roles need to look attractive because there is no game without either. Much less survivors, really. But that’s beside the point.
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Only the devs have the full numbers so we will never know how bad/good queue times were back then. 6.1.0 was a pretty big buff patch for Killers and I assume the trigger was that the Killer : Survivor ratio wasn't ideal.
I think it's all a huge juggling act for the devs at this point and not as simple as making both roles as attractive as possible. Controlling the Killer : Survivor ratio is no simple feat and maybe devs are not just thinking about how many players they can attract but also how many players they can afford to lose.
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That last bit is a good way to phrase it.
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Devs want kill rate, not win rate.
1 kill is counted toward the rate. If what you mean 1 kill should not count as a "kill"
Then 1 escape should count as 4 death.
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It's not accurate because it contains games where survivors kill themselves on hook, so the kill rate is artificially higher than what it truly is.
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That's not what i'm saying.
The devs have actually stated "win rate" is the goal, but kills are defined as what a win or a loss is.
Survivors win or lose on their own, to them, the game is effectively a 1v1 + 1v1 + 1v1 + 1v1. So if they die, they individually get a loss, if they escape, they get a win, if they escape through hatch, they get a draw.
Killer is a bit different, but getting 0-1 kills is a loss, 2 kills is a draw, 3-4 kills is a win.
So you would THINK that means that you want a 50% kill rate right? Because, if you played 1000 games, and every game was 2 kills 2 escapes, then the killer gets a draw every game. But its not like that for several reasons:
- The 2 survivors that escape that game actually win, they didn't lose.
- If you get 1 kill, then statistically speaking your are more likely to get a second kill.
Because of those facts, 60% actually brings it closer to a 50% "Win" rate as a whole when you look at thousands of matches.
Think of it like the monty hall problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
From the game show "Lets make a deal" you've heard of, where the host gives you 3 doors, 1 door has like $1000 prize, 1 door has a new car, and another door has nothing. Lets say you pick door number 1. Then the host says are you sure? And you say "Yes" then they show you that behind door number 3, is nothing. So now you know that you either picked the $1000 prize, or the new car. But NOW, the host gives you the option to switch your choice to door number 2. So the question is. Do you switch?
And the reality is you should ALWAYS switch, because when you picked Door number 1, you had a probability of 1 out of 3 of getting the car. But once they showed you what was behind door number 3, you still have a probability of 1 out of 3 of getting the car. But if you SWITCH your choice, now you have 2 out of 3 chance of getting the car, because you already know what's behind one of the doors.
A similar thing holds true here for DBD due to how statistics work.
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No, the Devs want 60% kill rate, even if I dont like, I have to accept that survivors should get 40% escape rate.
But many killers, you for example, thinking about win rate, not kill rate. Mentioned 1 kill, is a lost like something that should not count toward to that 60% kill rate because killers lose that match.
So I brought that 1 escape should not count toward 40% escape rate because survivors lose the match.
You're suppose to have 12 kill over 20 survivors. It doesnt matter the win rate, its the acceptable kill rate.
0K, 0K, 4K, 4K, 4K so 3 wins out of 51K, 2K, 3K, 3K, 3K so still 3 wins and 1 tie out of 52K, 2K, 2K, 3K, 3K so there is 0 lose out of 5
Doesnt matter how the result is, the losing rate never beat the win rate, unless some killers count tie as lose, and 3K as lose.
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There are games where the killer is farming, giving hatch, staying afk, giving up, giving exit gate ect.
On top of that, the last survivor has a close to 50% chance to get the hatch escape, which is just a petty escape and does not even count. So technically it is a 4K, but because of luck, its only a 3K. In the perspective of gameplay, the killer was 4king but only got 3k.
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There were times when we had to wait 20 minutes, especially late at night. At the time, this game was ridiculed as a bonfire watching game.
Nowadays, players don't have to wait that long. However, a killer player who wins first place in a certain killer game is forced to wait just one minute and then is matched with casual survivors who don't know how to loop.
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By the way, one player with tournament experience who transitioned from a certain Killer Play main to a Survivor Play main boasts a 60% escape rate.
Of course, this is SoloQ, and the play status is kept private and available on YouTube's live stream.
Even if you are not blessed with talented survivors, if you learn the work you need to do, you will be able to get closer to him.
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Except it's not, since those "statistics" don't even take into account matches where somebody DCs, so like 10%+ of all matches played are not counted for the stats. Usually, those are much more likely to end up with a loss, so the real survival rate is like -10%+ to whatever BHVR has thrown out to defend themselves from having to balance their game.
I wish this community didn't have the herd mentality this much.
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Perhaps that is counterbalanced by the presence of survivors who attempt suicide simply because they are angry that they were onhooked.
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40% is very good considering all the suicides on hooks and throwers.
If escaping was easy it would be a very boring game.
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What's often forgotten is that this is a video game and not a movie. At its core the game needs to be balanced because that's what makes a video game find success and if you want the "true" experience then there either needs to be a dbd movie or a until dawn type game to truly set that boundary lorewise. Other than that it's still a game and a game needs balance.
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Balancing at all cost is also killing the fun. Try balancing Nurse power to Trapper without ruining both characters. You can’t.
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40% is very bad considering all the killer that give up, give hatch, let survivor escape, want to farm, disconnect and to top it all off, the fact that we have hatchescapes that are just based on luck and have nothing to do if killer are powerful or not.
Since killing is easy, its a very boring game.
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I think this is really sad too. there’s no reason for a survivor to be excited with the survival rate or the new content like Alan or this Sable girl with their useless perks
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Nah VHS and Evil Dead died because the killer role was miserable.
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Conversely, overbuffing that role in Death Garden and Evolve killed those games. So I guess the pendulum swings both ways huh?
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How do you balance around survivors giving up on the slightest inconvenience? Everyone who plays solo, has seen how their teammates directly walk to a killer they don´t like, in an attempt to get hooked/suicide. Best example is Skull Merchant. She didn´t exactly receive a buff, but her kill rate kept climbing.
How do you balance around salty teammates? Thats also the reason, why we still have the dc penalty, even though Bots exist. Every single time the dc penalty was disabled, because of a bug. DCs skyrocket. You could watch a streamer like Otz and see survivors dc every single match.
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Yep. Never said otherwise.
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Look into the reasons why they give up.
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Not sure what you are on about. Killers that farm, and let survivors escape for no reason are extremely rare. Disconnects don't count towards statistics.
And survivors are arguably 4 times as likely to give up in a match as a killer because for every killer, there are 4 survivors in a match. So if you want to count killers that just give up and do not dc, you also have to count all the matches where a survivor gives up by suiciding on hook or going afk, which is definitely more frequent than a killer giving up, especially since survivors can suicide on hook, while killers can't end the match sooner unless they dc, in which case the match doesn't count to the statistics.
Survivor could be in a better state, especially since tunneling and camping continue to be a serious problem, but you are trying to make it look worse than it is with every chance you get, it seems. Killing also isn't easy if you go against a team that knows what tit is doing.
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By "the rest of the killer roster" you mean Twins and Blight?
The six-killer buff set is experimental and realistically will not total to a 5% net kill rate increase on average, because together they only make up for 18% of matches played. They'd have to all increase their kill rates to near-70%, which is only currently achieved by one killer (Skull Merchant), whose unusually high kill rate is attributed to a high percentage of survivors giving up on hook against her.
The implication that this round of buffs (which I agree are, on the whole, fairly unnecessary) will contribute that greatly to kill rates is laughable at best.
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The instances of killers farming is incredibly low, especially if you believe the posts here where EVERY game the killer is sweaty and toxic and tunnels everyone out at 5 gens.
AFAIK a hatch escape still counts as an escape, it just doesn't count toward MMR.
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Are you sure that hook suizide is more common then getting hatch for exmaple? You do realise that this also distorte stats quite a bit - arguable more then suizide? I can not speak for everbody but my killer games are almost without suizide and hatch escapes are at least 10 times more common then loss through suizide. I also rarely have this problem as survivor and it usually only occures against SM and when the game is hopelessly lost anyway.
Farming killer is rare, but it happens. Killer giving last survivor hatch or gate is not that rare. I do it all the time and i would say at least 15-20% of the time, the killer also gives hatch or gate.
Killer giving up.. like i said, i have this way more often then survivor giving up. Apparently, we have different experience.
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You're saying survivors are bad but should still win. I wish survivors would get better but most are just crazy chill
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A hatch escape counts - and that is in terms of "ballance through statistics" exactly the problem. The survivor escaped not because they won, but because of RNG. The killer won and it should actually be a 4K, but since hatch is in play, the survivor has a almost 50% chance to make it a 3K instead of a 4K.
60% killrate may be inflated by suizides, but it is also from hatch, friendly killer, afk ect.
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They released In the escape rates (these rates did not include DC btw) that even in top 5% mmr SWF that you only have 8% chance more of escaping than solo q. It’s at 48% while solo is 40%. I avoided SWF for the same reason, cause I used to believe that it was this super OP role and I would avoid it because I was trying to be courteous to killer mains. But then the stats were released and I realized it isn’t as bad as killer mains say. It’s not even a 50% chance of survival. Just like how solo isn’t as bad as survivor mains say (myself included). I used to think solo was like 20-30% survival but the stats show it’s 40% along with duos, and trios. Full swf without high mmr is only 43%. So if you wanna play solo just cause it’s fun then totally do it! But don’t feel guilty about playing SWF. It’s not as OP as we were made to believe.
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Archive challenges that require certain tasks, but are harder to achive uppon getting hooked. Don´t like the killer they face. Don´t like the map. Don´t like that the killer had Lightborn.
At least thats what i´m guessing, when my teammates suicide at their first hook. When 4 gens are completed and the killer is chasing someone at the other end of the map.
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Hatch escape, by whatever means, is definitely not uncommon. More common than hook suicides, that is true. But so is securing a last kill as killer when survivors open the exit gates. Especially with killers like Bubba, Huntress or HIllbilly, there is pretty much always one survivor that has to sacrifice themselves. This has become a bit rarer ever since the removal of hook grabs, but it's still a common outcome. 4 man escapes are arguably as rare as 4ks. So that kind of evens hatch escapes out if you ask me.
Hook suicides aren't super common, no doubt, but in my experience it happens definitely more often than killers giving up. Especially when playing survivor. And in general, it's just logical that it happens more often on the survivor side, because again, there are four survivors for every killer. So the likeliness is higher that a survivor gives up than a killer.
Again, survivor definitely needs some help in some areas. Especially now that maps are becoming fairer and fairer, I would argue camping and tunneling need to be addressed more. But I also don't think survivor is in an awful state either.
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The devs have stated multiple times that kill rate is a proxy for winning. Its precisely WHY mmr counts an escape for the survivor as a win and 0-1 kills as a loss for the killer 2 a draw and 3-4 a win for the killer. What matters here is what mmr thinks is a "win"
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I find the game pretty chill on both sides, at the moment.
I really don't get why there's a new 'Misery Squad' forming up spreading doom and gloom.
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