Soloq win rate 40%, for now.

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With the rest of the killer roster due for updates, I'd wager the survivor win rate will go to around 35% by end of year.

Or will survivors magically "get good"?

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  • joel84
    joel84 Member Posts: 128
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    It all depends on the build and the player. I only play Solo Survivor, because I love the Challenge and i don't want to offend anyone, but SWF feels like cheating to me.

  • appleas
    appleas Member Posts: 1,046
    edited February 21
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    Killer has to be slightly better or else people won't play the role.

    Remember pre 6.1.0 in early 2022 where Survivor Queue times was 10 minutes? Devs don't want that to happen again.

    I'm not even sure if the DBD population is large enough that players could get games quickly without having too much of a skill level gap at this point in time.

    Edit: If the devs know what they are doing, they are probably monitoring the amount of Survivors/Killers they have on hand constantly. 1 Killer for every 4 Survivors. Perhaps devs have come to the conclusion from their data that they have excess Survivor players that they can afford to "lose" as compared to Killer players. Their previous AMA also highlighted that further improving the Solo Queue experience isn't a huge priority for the devs so they probably came to the conclusion that it's fine even if some solo queue players stop playing or transition into playing swf/killer

    Post edited by appleas on
  • solarjin1
    solarjin1 Member Posts: 1,767
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    This^^^^

    The statistics is way lower than 40% obviously. Anybody who plays solo q or watch twitch streamers would know this. i get a DC on average every five games at least. I can understand why DCs isnt included in the stats but solo q survivors lose way more because of this. I wouldn't believe anything pass a 30% win rate in Solo Q for an average player.

  • Ayodam
    Ayodam Member Posts: 2,353
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    I don’t recall queue times ever being 10 minutes or more for survivor. Not in my region anyway. And I played well before patch 6.1.0. To that point the survivor role requires 4x the players as the killer role or there can be no game. So the devs should want people to play that role as well.

  • appleas
    appleas Member Posts: 1,046
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    I assume we are in different regions. I play in the SEA region and it was commonplace for SEA dbd streamers to have 10 min queue times. @MrPenguin also echoed a similar experience so the long queue times definitely wasn't a figment of my imagination.

  • Ayodam
    Ayodam Member Posts: 2,353
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    I’m not suggesting it’s untrue; just stating that wasn’t my experience. And like you, I’m sure I’m not alone in that. The main idea here though is that both roles need to look attractive because there is no game without either. Much less survivors, really. But that’s beside the point.

  • appleas
    appleas Member Posts: 1,046
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    Only the devs have the full numbers so we will never know how bad/good queue times were back then. 6.1.0 was a pretty big buff patch for Killers and I assume the trigger was that the Killer : Survivor ratio wasn't ideal.

    I think it's all a huge juggling act for the devs at this point and not as simple as making both roles as attractive as possible. Controlling the Killer : Survivor ratio is no simple feat and maybe devs are not just thinking about how many players they can attract but also how many players they can afford to lose.

  • Ayodam
    Ayodam Member Posts: 2,353
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  • C3Tooth
    C3Tooth Member Posts: 8,073
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    Devs want kill rate, not win rate.

    1 kill is counted toward the rate. If what you mean 1 kill should not count as a "kill"

    Then 1 escape should count as 4 death.

  • Exxodus21
    Exxodus21 Member Posts: 1,170
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    It's not accurate because it contains games where survivors kill themselves on hook, so the kill rate is artificially higher than what it truly is.

  • Reinami
    Reinami Member Posts: 5,130
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    That's not what i'm saying.


    The devs have actually stated "win rate" is the goal, but kills are defined as what a win or a loss is.


    Survivors win or lose on their own, to them, the game is effectively a 1v1 + 1v1 + 1v1 + 1v1. So if they die, they individually get a loss, if they escape, they get a win, if they escape through hatch, they get a draw.

    Killer is a bit different, but getting 0-1 kills is a loss, 2 kills is a draw, 3-4 kills is a win.


    So you would THINK that means that you want a 50% kill rate right? Because, if you played 1000 games, and every game was 2 kills 2 escapes, then the killer gets a draw every game. But its not like that for several reasons:


    • The 2 survivors that escape that game actually win, they didn't lose.
    • If you get 1 kill, then statistically speaking your are more likely to get a second kill.


    Because of those facts, 60% actually brings it closer to a 50% "Win" rate as a whole when you look at thousands of matches.


    Think of it like the monty hall problem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem


    From the game show "Lets make a deal" you've heard of, where the host gives you 3 doors, 1 door has like $1000 prize, 1 door has a new car, and another door has nothing. Lets say you pick door number 1. Then the host says are you sure? And you say "Yes" then they show you that behind door number 3, is nothing. So now you know that you either picked the $1000 prize, or the new car. But NOW, the host gives you the option to switch your choice to door number 2. So the question is. Do you switch?


    And the reality is you should ALWAYS switch, because when you picked Door number 1, you had a probability of 1 out of 3 of getting the car. But once they showed you what was behind door number 3, you still have a probability of 1 out of 3 of getting the car. But if you SWITCH your choice, now you have 2 out of 3 chance of getting the car, because you already know what's behind one of the doors.


    A similar thing holds true here for DBD due to how statistics work.

  • xEa
    xEa Member Posts: 4,105
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    There are games where the killer is farming, giving hatch, staying afk, giving up, giving exit gate ect.

    On top of that, the last survivor has a close to 50% chance to get the hatch escape, which is just a petty escape and does not even count. So technically it is a 4K, but because of luck, its only a 3K. In the perspective of gameplay, the killer was 4king but only got 3k.

  • xltechno
    xltechno Member Posts: 1,026
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    There were times when we had to wait 20 minutes, especially late at night. At the time, this game was ridiculed as a bonfire watching game.

    Nowadays, players don't have to wait that long. However, a killer player who wins first place in a certain killer game is forced to wait just one minute and then is matched with casual survivors who don't know how to loop.

  • xltechno
    xltechno Member Posts: 1,026
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    By the way, one player with tournament experience who transitioned from a certain Killer Play main to a Survivor Play main boasts a 60% escape rate.

    Of course, this is SoloQ, and the play status is kept private and available on YouTube's live stream.

    Even if you are not blessed with talented survivors, if you learn the work you need to do, you will be able to get closer to him.

  • Beatricks
    Beatricks Member Posts: 857
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    Except it's not, since those "statistics" don't even take into account matches where somebody DCs, so like 10%+ of all matches played are not counted for the stats. Usually, those are much more likely to end up with a loss, so the real survival rate is like -10%+ to whatever BHVR has thrown out to defend themselves from having to balance their game.

    I wish this community didn't have the herd mentality this much.

  • xltechno
    xltechno Member Posts: 1,026
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    Perhaps that is counterbalanced by the presence of survivors who attempt suicide simply because they are angry that they were onhooked.

  • Murgleïs
    Murgleïs Member Posts: 1,046
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    40% is very good considering all the suicides on hooks and throwers.

    If escaping was easy it would be a very boring game.

  • coco_shotz
    coco_shotz Member Posts: 249
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    What's often forgotten is that this is a video game and not a movie. At its core the game needs to be balanced because that's what makes a video game find success and if you want the "true" experience then there either needs to be a dbd movie or a until dawn type game to truly set that boundary lorewise. Other than that it's still a game and a game needs balance.

  • Murgleïs
    Murgleïs Member Posts: 1,046
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    Balancing at all cost is also killing the fun. Try balancing Nurse power to Trapper without ruining both characters. You can’t.

  • felipesegatto1
    felipesegatto1 Unconfirmed, Member Posts: 95
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    I think this is really sad too. there’s no reason for a survivor to be excited with the survival rate or the new content like Alan or this Sable girl with their useless perks

  • Tsulan
    Tsulan Member Posts: 15,095
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    How do you balance around survivors giving up on the slightest inconvenience? Everyone who plays solo, has seen how their teammates directly walk to a killer they don´t like, in an attempt to get hooked/suicide. Best example is Skull Merchant. She didn´t exactly receive a buff, but her kill rate kept climbing.

    How do you balance around salty teammates? Thats also the reason, why we still have the dc penalty, even though Bots exist. Every single time the dc penalty was disabled, because of a bug. DCs skyrocket. You could watch a streamer like Otz and see survivors dc every single match.

  • ad19970
    ad19970 Member Posts: 6,305
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    Not sure what you are on about. Killers that farm, and let survivors escape for no reason are extremely rare. Disconnects don't count towards statistics.

    And survivors are arguably 4 times as likely to give up in a match as a killer because for every killer, there are 4 survivors in a match. So if you want to count killers that just give up and do not dc, you also have to count all the matches where a survivor gives up by suiciding on hook or going afk, which is definitely more frequent than a killer giving up, especially since survivors can suicide on hook, while killers can't end the match sooner unless they dc, in which case the match doesn't count to the statistics.

    Survivor could be in a better state, especially since tunneling and camping continue to be a serious problem, but you are trying to make it look worse than it is with every chance you get, it seems. Killing also isn't easy if you go against a team that knows what tit is doing.

  • kit_mason
    kit_mason Member Posts: 247
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    By "the rest of the killer roster" you mean Twins and Blight?

    The six-killer buff set is experimental and realistically will not total to a 5% net kill rate increase on average, because together they only make up for 18% of matches played. They'd have to all increase their kill rates to near-70%, which is only currently achieved by one killer (Skull Merchant), whose unusually high kill rate is attributed to a high percentage of survivors giving up on hook against her.

    The implication that this round of buffs (which I agree are, on the whole, fairly unnecessary) will contribute that greatly to kill rates is laughable at best.

  • Exxodus21
    Exxodus21 Member Posts: 1,170
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    The instances of killers farming is incredibly low, especially if you believe the posts here where EVERY game the killer is sweaty and toxic and tunnels everyone out at 5 gens.

    AFAIK a hatch escape still counts as an escape, it just doesn't count toward MMR.

  • xEa
    xEa Member Posts: 4,105
    edited February 21
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    Are you sure that hook suizide is more common then getting hatch for exmaple? You do realise that this also distorte stats quite a bit - arguable more then suizide? I can not speak for everbody but my killer games are almost without suizide and hatch escapes are at least 10 times more common then loss through suizide. I also rarely have this problem as survivor and it usually only occures against SM and when the game is hopelessly lost anyway.

    Farming killer is rare, but it happens. Killer giving last survivor hatch or gate is not that rare. I do it all the time and i would say at least 15-20% of the time, the killer also gives hatch or gate.

    Killer giving up.. like i said, i have this way more often then survivor giving up. Apparently, we have different experience.

  • Nick
    Nick Member Posts: 1,201
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    You're saying survivors are bad but should still win. I wish survivors would get better but most are just crazy chill

  • xEa
    xEa Member Posts: 4,105
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    A hatch escape counts - and that is in terms of "ballance through statistics" exactly the problem. The survivor escaped not because they won, but because of RNG. The killer won and it should actually be a 4K, but since hatch is in play, the survivor has a almost 50% chance to make it a 3K instead of a 4K.

    60% killrate may be inflated by suizides, but it is also from hatch, friendly killer, afk ect.

  • hermitkermit
    hermitkermit Member Posts: 206
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    They released In the escape rates (these rates did not include DC btw) that even in top 5% mmr SWF that you only have 8% chance more of escaping than solo q. It’s at 48% while solo is 40%. I avoided SWF for the same reason, cause I used to believe that it was this super OP role and I would avoid it because I was trying to be courteous to killer mains. But then the stats were released and I realized it isn’t as bad as killer mains say. It’s not even a 50% chance of survival. Just like how solo isn’t as bad as survivor mains say (myself included). I used to think solo was like 20-30% survival but the stats show it’s 40% along with duos, and trios. Full swf without high mmr is only 43%. So if you wanna play solo just cause it’s fun then totally do it! But don’t feel guilty about playing SWF. It’s not as OP as we were made to believe.

  • Tsulan
    Tsulan Member Posts: 15,095
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    Archive challenges that require certain tasks, but are harder to achive uppon getting hooked. Don´t like the killer they face. Don´t like the map. Don´t like that the killer had Lightborn.

    At least thats what i´m guessing, when my teammates suicide at their first hook. When 4 gens are completed and the killer is chasing someone at the other end of the map.

  • ad19970
    ad19970 Member Posts: 6,305
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    Hatch escape, by whatever means, is definitely not uncommon. More common than hook suicides, that is true. But so is securing a last kill as killer when survivors open the exit gates. Especially with killers like Bubba, Huntress or HIllbilly, there is pretty much always one survivor that has to sacrifice themselves. This has become a bit rarer ever since the removal of hook grabs, but it's still a common outcome. 4 man escapes are arguably as rare as 4ks. So that kind of evens hatch escapes out if you ask me.

    Hook suicides aren't super common, no doubt, but in my experience it happens definitely more often than killers giving up. Especially when playing survivor. And in general, it's just logical that it happens more often on the survivor side, because again, there are four survivors for every killer. So the likeliness is higher that a survivor gives up than a killer.

    Again, survivor definitely needs some help in some areas. Especially now that maps are becoming fairer and fairer, I would argue camping and tunneling need to be addressed more. But I also don't think survivor is in an awful state either.

  • Reinami
    Reinami Member Posts: 5,130
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    The devs have stated multiple times that kill rate is a proxy for winning. Its precisely WHY mmr counts an escape for the survivor as a win and 0-1 kills as a loss for the killer 2 a draw and 3-4 a win for the killer. What matters here is what mmr thinks is a "win"

  • Raccoon
    Raccoon Member Posts: 7,644
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    I find the game pretty chill on both sides, at the moment.

    I really don't get why there's a new 'Misery Squad' forming up spreading doom and gloom.