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You don't get tunnelled frequently. You are just biased.

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adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132
edited July 2 in General Discussions

Scott Jund conducted an experiment and survey on tunnelling. In his experiment, he played 50 matches and recorded the number of matches where anyone on his team was tunnelled. Tunnelling occurred in 5/50 (10%) matches and in only 2 of the matches, the killer was deliberately tunnelling. In the other 3 matches, the tunnelling occurred due to survivors making stupid mistakes. Considering there are 4 survivors, the odds of a specific survivor being tunnelled out is 1/4*10% = 2.5%.

He also conducted a survey, which gathered 3103 responses. 80% of people were tunnelled less than 40% of the time. Only 7% of people were tunnelled more than 60%. The average tunnel frequency was 27% (assuming the average of each range). Though, the real values are extremely likely much lower since the survey question was "how often do you feel like you get tunnelled". It was based on feeling and their own definition of tunnelling rather than actually tracking their matches with a standardised definition. When matches were tracked, people were tunnelled (individually) 1%-3% of the time, as seen in Scott Jund's experiment and the data I discuss later.

Tunnel frequency

Percentage of responses

0-20% of the time

47%

21-40% of the time

33%

41-60% of the time

12%

61-80% of the time

3%

> 80% of the time

4%

He also found that region and time of day had minimal impact on tunnel frequency.

It was also found that tunnel rate was correlated with escape rate, so it's possible that survivors that get "tunnelled more frequently" are not actually getting tunnelled more but are just dying more frequently due to being worse at the game.

From the data and his experiment, Scott Jund concluded that the myth of frequent tunnelling occurred due to negativity bias, which is a bias that caused people to remember and place higher weight on negative events than neutral and positive events. He also challenged anyone that thinks they get tunnelled frequently to record their gaming sessions and send them to him for proof.

The takeaway from this is to track the percentage of matches you get tunnelled. For example, someone recently posted data from 1212 matches they played (Jan-June 2024), which tracked tunnelling. Note that 18 matches were cancelled from the start, so there were 1194 matches in total. I compiled the data from it and these were the results:

  • Tunnelling occurred in 49 matches (4.1%)
  • In 47 of the matches, 1 person was tunnelled. In the remaining 2 matches, 2 people were tunnelled. Therefore, 51 survivors were tunnelled in total.
  • There were 4776 survivors (1194*4) in total. Therefore, the odds of a specific person being tunnelled was 51/4776 (1.1%)
  • In many of the matches with tunnelling, there was a DC, so tunnel rate would be lower if DCs were excluded.

Nazzzak also provided their data set of 421 matches and found that tunnelling occurred in approximately 1/12 (8.3%) of matches.

Post edited by adsads123123123123 on
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Comments

  • CrypticGirl
    CrypticGirl Member Posts: 683

    I'm not sure why there should be a distinction here.  Tunneling is happening, whether it's happening to you or one of your teammates.

  • Anti051
    Anti051 Member Posts: 675

    Might try reading the whole thing.

    • There were 4776 survivors (1194*4) in total. Therefore, the odds of a specific person being tunnelled was 51/4776 (1.1%)

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132
    edited July 2

    I don't think Scott is high MMR. I have no supporting facts other than I have never seen him try and he actively brings meme builds.

    He's been playing this game for about 7 years and is one of the best killer players. He's definitely high mmr for survivor. Also due to the mmr soft cap existing, it's unnecessary to be max mmr to face the best killers. Just being above the soft cap is good enough.

    If we were to truly look at the best survivor players, their tunnel rate would be close to 0 because they would be playing in a 4-man swf and escaping almost every match.

    Upload your games and send it to Scott. With the data so far, I find it impossible for tunnelling to occur >50% of the time over the long-term.

  • UndeddJester
    UndeddJester Member Posts: 3,448
    edited July 2

    Scot even said as much in his video.

    I've even seen people complain about "being tunneled" after they actively hang around to try for a pallet save for their unhooker, and then screamed "tunneler" when killer doesn't fall for it...

    Is like bruh...

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132

    When I say one of the best, I mean in the top 0.5% of killers.

    You don't need to send me hundreds of matches. A preliminary sample of 10-15 matches is good enough for a rough estimate. Hundreds of matches are only needed to confirm with high accuracy and reduce variance.

  • Pulsar
    Pulsar Member Posts: 20,795

    15 might still take me 3 years 😅

    Regular gamemode, I presume? Wouldn't make much sense to test on an event, imo.

    What information do you want me to take down? 15 is a relatively small sample size, so it won't be too difficult to take down a lot of info. Likewise, SWF or Solo Q?

  • DyingWish92
    DyingWish92 Member Posts: 792

    People consider everythin tunneling. So it's completely over blown. I think I've ACTUALLY been tunneled like once in the last 30 or so games. A Trickster and I abused him with the portals on the new map and everyone escaped lol.

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132
    edited July 2

    Solo Q regular game mode.

    Stats:

    • Number of survivors that were tunnelled (including you)
    • Number of times you were tunnelled
    • Whether there was a disconnect and who disconnected
    • The killer
    • Ideally upload the end-game screens to Imgur

    Mention the timestamps for the games with tunnelling, so I can quickly find them and don't have to watch every game.

    This is just the first 15 matches you play randomly. Don't try to isolate it to just certain matches. Play as you normally do. Don't try to play more toxic or bold to encourage tunnelling.

    Also, state your definition of tunnelling here now, so you can't change it later to suit your narrative.

    Post edited by adsads123123123123 on
  • Caiman
    Caiman Member Posts: 2,941

    I agree, I don't trust complaints about that either. Both happen sometimes, and it sucks when they do, but unless I'm shown the evidence, I can only assume most people are just blowing hot air.

  • BlightedDolphin
    BlightedDolphin Member Posts: 1,876

    His data is flawed in that he only asked when you get tunnelled not whether the game contains tunnelling. I don't think we can really draw many conclusions from it. I answered the survey he made and it was very bare bones and basic.

    I do agree with him though that tunnelling is much less common than it is discussed, at least in my experience. My experience is very similar to Nazzzak's and I very rarely see tunnelling (outside of events at least). I think it's similar to the complaints that "every game is a SWF" where people see something slightly resemble tunnelling (such as a teammates body blocking, you running into the killer, etc) and then use it as a way to justify their mistakes and loses. The bad games also stick with you more than the good ones so it feels like every game is a tunneller because they leave the biggest impact on you.

    Regardless of how common it is though, it should still be addressed in some way. I think the DS buff was a good start and helped alleviate some of it by the threat of it existing returning but there should be something that to encourage you not to do it that isn't behind a pay wall. Whether it is common or not, it still is common enough to understandably ruin people's experience with the game. A good comparison is FtP/Buckle Up - it was not that common, maybe 1 in every 10 games, but it still made the game miserable to play at times and the nerf was necessary.

  • TheSubstitute
    TheSubstitute Member Posts: 2,515

    Another so-called experiment that means nothing. Unless every player in every region and every MMR has the exact same matches it's not representative of the larger whole.

    With how people over extrapolate it's no wonder BHVR is reluctant to release statistics.

  • BurnedTerrormisu
    BurnedTerrormisu Member Posts: 191
    edited July 2

    Scott played his main account with high mmr? If yes it makes sense he don't see a lot of tunneling.

    I don't see a lot of tunneling too, maybe in less than 1/3 of my matches. When I see tunneling its mostly a killer with around 1000 hours playtime or the survivor is in a complete deadzone.

    My guess is the tunneling happens in the 500 - 1000 hour survivor playtime range where survivors are not longer overwhelmed by the game but still can't loop consistent. there are a lot of players in that playtime range, so there are a lot of complaints.

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132

    So, you're one of those people that think you get tunnelled every match? Upload your gaming sessions for proof. Thanks.

  • Marc_go_solo
    Marc_go_solo Member Posts: 5,340

    You don't need a large poll and stats to know this. Many who complain just look for excuses for their poor performance, rather than acknowledge they need to improve.

    Also, people will remember bad happenings more robustly than anything good because of an out-of-date instinct in humans to avoid danger above all else. One trial with either a perceived or actual tunnel becomes the basis for which future losses may be based on.

  • Halloulle
    Halloulle Member Posts: 1,349
    edited July 2

    Scott posted the link the the survey here a while ago — and in that thread there was some feedback regading the wording and the structure of the questionnaire. E.g. it only ever asked about you getting tunnelled. Just because you don't get tunneled that often, doesn't mean you see others getting tunneled and can't prevent it. That would be alright if Scott actually asked all players (cause that tunneled player would then also reply) but this forum is not a representative group. So at the very least asking how often others were tunneled would have to be there to get a better picture and inform your conclusions.

    That high MMR people get tunneled less, especially when they're kinda exceptional, also doesn't seem like a surprise: it's not that difficult to recognise as a killer that you're overcommitting and chances are you can and will find an easier target fast enough.

    That being said: yes, there's bias involved. Of course there is. But there are also a way to account for that and even just thinking about the many days where I literally told the group "if the next game is tunneling again I ain't playing anymore today. Playing gen simulator or hook simulator isn't what I'm here for" - and they understood well what I meant, makes me think it's not that biased after all. Or the bias doesn't really matter. Why? - In those cases there was tunneling in at least three consecutive matches. On many, different days. In percentage of total matches? I have no clue. In any case it's significant enough that it made me effectively stop playing (safe for getting some cosmetics I really want cause idk why but I guess I just like cosmetics). And thats the direction a dev team wants to avoid, no?

  • appleas
    appleas Member Posts: 1,129

    Scott's methodology has flaws, but it carries more weight than a few people coming onto the forums to complain that tunneling is widespread and in every single game.

    I'm not too sure if devs have pushed out an official survey asking about perceptions regarding tunneling so Scott's project seems like the next best thing.

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132
    edited July 2

    This argument that average mmr survivors are tunnelled significantly more is largely unfounded because it assumes that high mmr survivors play exclusively with high mmr survivors and killers. This is false. Matchmaking is very loose. There will be many matches where a high mmr survivor is teamed with terrible/low mmr teammates and against baby killers. If tunnelling was significantly more frequent at average mmr, this would have been seen in the data posted, but tunnel rates were very low across all data sets. It also assumes tunnelling is less frequent at high mmr, but there is no evidence for this. If we look at the top level (tournaments), tunnelling occurs extremely frequently, suggesting it is more frequent at high mmr.

  • Halloulle
    Halloulle Member Posts: 1,349

    I don't know about others but at least I don't mean that high mmr players get targeted for tunneling less often. It's less successful against them. And as you say: matchmaking is a huge mixed bag. So chances are a killer will find a not-high-mmr-person to tunnel fast enough. (which imo is also why tunneling in pubs is so strong while in comp it isn't necessarily - I mean; there's a lot of not so great players in comp as well but if we look at the teams… say starting with the quarter finals of a given tourney.)

  • Coffeecrashing
    Coffeecrashing Member Posts: 3,809

    If a survivor equips an anti-tunnel perk like DS, and isn’t getting tunneled, then many of them like to weaponize the perk against the killer so they “don’t waste the perk”.

    And that’s the problem with many of the anti-tunnel perks.

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,132
    edited July 2

    High mmr survivors actually have similar escape rapes to average mmr survivors. While they are better at the game, they also face better killers, causing their escape rate to remain similar. It's only 4-man SWFs and extremely good survivors that escape significantly more. Asides from Scott Jund, I don't think the other 2 data sets posted here fall into those categories.

    https://new.reddit.com/r/deadbydaylight/comments/1arg1o4/developer_update_stats/

  • For_The_People
    For_The_People Member Posts: 586

    we need Steve Pulsar back! With a Mikey dotted around now and again!

  • For_The_People
    For_The_People Member Posts: 586

    I have recently got a steam deck and I play now and again (no cross progression from my Nintendo switch yet) and I can honestly say without any exaggeration that my Dwight gets tunnelled and targeted (as in, killer is in chase, sees me and switches to me immediately) in at least 6 out of the 10 matches. The other 4 where I’m not tunnelled, has a high likelihood that I see another person being tunnelled.

  • Halloulle
    Halloulle Member Posts: 1,349

    that's… in line with what I'm saying though? Those suffering the most from tunneling are those, who do not have the extra skill required to draw out the tunneling process in the match they got (looking at the mixed bag). Those who do have that skill, still have a chance to escape - or will be left alone entirely (again: leaving those lacking that skill to be tunneled).

  • CrypticGirl
    CrypticGirl Member Posts: 683

    I don't think DS is effective against tunneling, because once it's used, the Killer knows you have it, and they know you can't use it again, so that's a free ticket to tunneling.

  • Doxie
    Doxie Member Posts: 190

    Im not surprised. Even as killer I accidentally run into he same survivor as I just hooked. I'm not ultra competitive so usually I will make sure If I win....I hook them last. Tbh, I think hook camping is a bigger issue than tunneling.

  • Caiman
    Caiman Member Posts: 2,941

    Players in general are too prone to going out of their way to get "value" out of their perks. Perks are there to serve you, not the other way around. If you can win without using any of your perks, go ahead and win, it doesn't matter if your perks didn't do anything because you're winning and that's all that counts.