Stat page accuracy test
A month or so ago, we had several posts talking about the innaccuracy of the offical personal stats tracker, brought about by this response to a bug report:
It became clear with minimal investigation that abandons, even in mid-death animation, counted as null for survivors, boosting their ERs wih innaccurate numbers. And apparently the same with DCs. So I decided to see if there were inaccuracies on the killler side. I tracked my matches for a month, noting how many abandons and DCs occured amongst my opponents, to compare with the official page. I also DCed in two matches. In one, I waited until all survivors had run out. In another, they were all present. There were also two server disconnects. The one thing I didn't do was abandon, and I should have because that's a missing variable.
I recorded:
This is what the official stats looked like:
Both the 2 DCs and the two server disconnects did, in fact, count as 0Ks, so DCs do, at least on the killler end, count as losses. The stats matched perfectly with what I'd recorded but there's a few things to consider:
21.98% of my opponenets abandoned
If it's true you don't gain MMR from these abandons, the game is basically forcing killer players to smurf. In my matches, it's generally the best players who go down last. So if I hook the second to last person then down the last and they both abandon, I'm gaining lower amounts of MMR from the first two kills, and getting nothing from the other two, who likely have the higher MMR. If I slug all four people and they all abandon, I get 4 kills on my personal record but no MMR growth, and they get no loss/death. Survivors can maintain their MMR simply by being the last to die and hitting abandon, and killers don't gain any from them.
And 20%+ is a huge number.
4.9% percent of my opponents DCed
This is not really relevant to number crunching, but this clashes with the DCs-in-every-match complaint that's common in the forum. And many of these matches were assured victories very early on, the sort of 4k at 5gen stomps people would be likely to DC.
Matches with DCs don't count towards offical BHVR stats
That previous bit being said, 20 DC matches out of 116 is 17.24% of my 116. Out of those 20 matches, 19 were wins.18 of those were 4ks. These people mostly didn't early DC over frivolous things—they DCed because the loss was assured. If that pattern is consistent across most player's matches, the true global KRs are greatly under-reported.
Comments
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Based on what they've said, the KR's would be under-reported on their official stat page we see as you're referencing, not on their internal stats or the ones they post to us every so often though. I'm not sure as far as Nightlight stats.
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I still don't get it. The statistics you showed are identical to the website's. So, the numbers for the killer are strictly representative, and the only thing that comes out is that the survivors are manipulating the MMR by abandoning and essentially continue playing against the same level of killers, against whom they are guaranteed to lose?
In this case, even if BHVR displays site statistics, in terms of killers it remains accurate, except for isolated miscalculations, but it seriously affects the MMR system, where players continue to remain at a level that does not belong to them.
This 17% didn't seemed to be lost. Only in aspect of MMR. So the only stuff this 5% people do is inflating their surv stats and breaking matchmaking.
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But they're not under-reported. They were perfect.
I would assume they have every possible variation of internal data and that doesn't do any of us much good.
DC matches also aren't included in the large-scale stats they show us.
This is old but was in regardds to overall KRs amongst all killers and theres nothing to indicate anything has changed, which means the only accurate numbers are the ones we don't get to see.
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What it equals out to is that personal killer stats are correct and don't care about opponents DCs or abandons, but survivor stats are inflated if the survivors use the abandon, and most seem to. I would assume killer stats could potentially be messed up with the abandon option as well, but who ever uses it as killer?
The only innaccuracy seems to be the server disconnects. The game should be able to see a game with 00:00 minutes where everyone had 0 points and just delete it, but it doesn't. Those counted like 4Es for me. The matches I DCed in also counted as 4Es, as they should, but I recall people saying they had a different outcome when DCing as survivor.
As for MMR, it would be nice to get more clarification. If we take this mod comment as it is, a survivor abandoning does indeed keep their MMR and the killer who killed them gains none. I imagine most survivors aren't doing it on purpose and aren't even thinking about their MMR. They just think it's a way to get to the lobby faster, which is all it should be but clearly isn't.
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I've been tracking my matches on the Survivor side, but all my games have been 2v8 during the event, so idk if that would show us anything, so I may have to track some more.
I can say that when I had a match where the server disconnected, it didn't show up on the official stat tracker page at all.
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I track my survivor matches loosely but I've never crunched the numbers. I assume mine are accurate though since I don't DC or abandon and my stats reflect that appropriate mediocrity.
I wonder about server DCs though. They showed up in my recents as killer as though they were 0-point DCs. I'll have to start paying attention. Same with ragequitting killers who DC before you can run out the gate. My understanding is those don't count as wins for the survivors, but I'm not actually sure.
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I don't have the quote on me but Mandy had posted a little while back when we were critiquing how flawed the dbd website stats were, as you've mentioned, that this was only those stats, and that the kill rates they present to us are not subject to these flaws.
I'm not sure how we would realistically fix this though. Just as excluding them flaws the stats, including them does as well. The only real way would be like significantly increasing DC punishments and removing abandoning so that both scenarios happen significantly less to where they're less of a factor when included, and I doubt that's happening.
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This is it:
This is pretty vague. No correlation doesn't tell us what they do or don't include.
You fix it by having abandons show as losses because they are, and you have everyone loose and gain MMR based on those wins and losses. I don't know how DCs show on the survivor end but my killer ones were losses, and that's correct. The abandon should be a skip animation option, not a get out of jail free card that's distributed every time a killer wins solely because someone died last.
The only reason I can see is that if BHVR goes back and adjusts the abandons to register properly, everyone is gonna see their numbers plummet and they'll be unhappy. But people need to see their real numbers.
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I would assume killer stats could potentially be messed up with the abandon option as well, but who ever uses it as killer
It doesn't really work because you yourself proved rn killer stats are correct. While survivors one are actually inflated, according posts of some people regard this topic. As I remember @BorisDDAA was one of them? While on stats devs provided it was clear that they are matching to each other. Math not doing math as supposed to.
It just proved that BHVR using other tool when sharing stats with us, and that as it was said by mod, abandoning isn't tracked for survivor MMR, so the great fanbase basically unconsciously smurfing
I assume… this website is just broken. When I did 100 games as Executioner and was recording stats, noticed that the time of match is different from website claims on 10-30 seconds. Old players complaining stats are not correct. People randomly see abandones as escapes, but this is inconsistent. I checked myself and see no logic beside ones.
- If whole team abandons before any survivor dying in game, all of them will be marked as escaped, but killer keep status of merciless killer (so 4k counted and go for killer’s stats). But you also can not getting this status, and actually it will count as loss. There are zero consistency here and it's clearly a bug.
- If whole team abandons when someone is already dead, last survivor has higher chance to be marked as escaped.
- Killer stats seems to be affected only when whole team abandons, record glitches, and mark them as escaped even as bots.
- Killer stats guarantee affected if you abandon yourself, even after hooking everyone or slugged, until someone not dead.
I gave up on making post myself because this bs actually doesn't have pattern. The only stuff I noticed myself - Killer KR is more clear than ER, while survivor info from recent matches more clear then killer’s one.
I don’t mean it's survivors fault when said about smurfing. No, it’s clearly devs decision, majority even doesn't know this so no reason to blame community. But it just makes it clear that survivors are playing with highly inflated MMR. A huge part of frustration can simply exist because they matched with people of braces they don’t belong to. Add broad MMR braces, filler lobbies, and game doomed to have worst matchmaking possible. It's not a talk about “sweats”. It’s a talk about “high MMR” argument is being trash, and level of difficulty can be defined by time and region only. Killers might have high KR only because they matched with players level lower.
It also can be a part of reason that influence on queues. By my own experience — the longer killer queues I got was on new killers or when I firstly started to play. On executioner, for example, even during 1 vs 8 my 1 vs 4 matches were almost instant.
I don't want to use illegal methods to figure out my MMR. I tried to request JSON from BHVR to calculate it myself but support is so terrible I decided I don't need this. But after winter break maybe I’ll try ask them again, to compare my surv and killer MMR. As 50/50 player it should tell me a lot.
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People randomly see abandones as escapes
I was tracking this too but stopped because the stat page updated halfway through my recording period and this aspect changed. Previously, if there were mutiple abandons, one would show with the escape symbol and the others with the DC symbol. When they updated it recently, they now all show as escapes. I actually caught a match like that during the update that I'd happened to screenshot prior.
Previously:
After the update:
This was a 4K. So all abandons now show as escapes.
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The players should not have to do their own scientific studies to investigate this. BHVR could simply come out and tell us how the stats work, but they haven’t and that is very telling. Based on the way they have handled this, there is zero reason to trust anything they say.
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Surprisingly, my stats still show abandon as dc?
here abandons mark as escapes, dc as dc
yet my own result is pictured as dc, when I abandoned
Stats are broken to such state, that for example they showed me escaped Leon instead of DCed (not abandon)
The funny stuff I don’t remember Leon during this match. It supposed to be David.
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Abandons always being a loss sounds fair. As long as the killer abandoning after all survivors have abandoned still gives them the win (currently doesn't).
DC's I believe are currently just all thrown out. Which there's so many DC's right now that's throwing numbers all off as well. It's a little more awkward making the DC's work like abandons (losses) since unlike abandons, which have specific criteria which is generally a lost game, DC's can be any time for any of numerous random reasons that have nothing to do with losing. As mentioned before I don't know how we'd fix this stat altering issue other than making dc stats be included but also make dc's way more punishing to make them much less prevalent.
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I'm guessing it looks different on the killer end compared to the survivor end, even for the same matches. All survivor abandons now show with the escape icon on match history for me. The DCs have the DC image and a 0 score.
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It's a little more awkward making the DC's work like abandons (losses) since unlike abandons, which have specific criteria which is generally a lost game, DC's can be any time for any of numerous random reasons that have nothing to do with losing
This is true, but just in my small sample, as I said, it was almost all ragequits over me winning. If I recall, two of the Dredge DCs were at the beginning of the match, and I was using the recorder add-on that starts the match with Nightfall, so that might have well been an accessibility issue for those players. But, for the most part, the DCs were late-game.
I'm not positive about this math because I don't have my notes with me, but if I subtract the 20 DC matches from my sample, my KR for the month goes from 78.66% to 72.39%. That would be BHVRs official secret number for me for the month, and that's a noteworthy dip. Now magnify that by everyone, including people much better than me who probably see more DCs. I wouldn't be surprised if true KRs were actually hovering around 70% overall. Imagine how many people DC against god Nurses.
I don't know what can be done either but I think I'd rather them be included. They're still a reflection of what's happening in a match and a bot doesn't automatically ruin the game.
Though the obvious server DCs definitely need to be tossed.
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The silence on our inquires had been so deafening I figured I might as well. And hey, it gave me a sense of purpose for a month while I waste my life on this game.
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I remember I had “glitchy” results that showed me I escaped instead of abandon after their update from surv POV. But since I don't abandon a lot and had like 30 games after this match was basically lost.
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If people do 4 DC on 5 gens this match is basically go as “farming” one. No point to count it to KR of killer when matched turns to custom. The only issue such games go as + to survivors.
I’m still confused why you so aggressively insist abandon inflates KR when your own post proving otherwise. And you have zero proofs of BHVR secret numbers being specific one. Alongside with post of them “extracting DC rates” they made few other announcement, like them being able to make a difference between farming match and actual one.
There are unclarity on what happening in their internal data, and nothing can support sentiment that stats are inflated in Killer favour. The only proofs we have now is not working MMR that inflating KR through trash matchmaking.-1 -
The individual, personal killer stats are not inflated. I never said they were. They're accurate. That's what I proved.
But the overall stats they relaese to us, they've said that DCs are excluded. I put a screenshot above of a dev saying so. It's old, and I know there are more quotes, I just can't find them (@Nazzzak maybe has some screenshots?)
So I'm saying the non-personal numbers they show us are likely deflated (not inflated) because of the subtracted DCs since, I'd venture to guess (based on my own experience), matches with survivor DCs are usually killer wins. So a lot of killer wins are subtracted from the global numbers they show us.
I can only make speculations, obviously, since no one wants to explain anything to us, but if I can't trust some of the numbers, it's hard for me trust any.
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They also exclude DC from killer side, AFK, go next and farming matches according their words. From both sides. What the actual numbers then? What DC rates? Now we have to second-third guess, so again, no proofs claiming stats are changed in specific way. The fact they are changed and that they go through MMR the only truth.
It doesn't change the fact that the biggest elephant in a room players playing on MMR they don’t belong too and have them inflated. So even if you gonna include these DCes to stats, they aren’t gonna stop being trash.
I understand why they exclude DCes, because from sportsmanlike behaviour this is considered griefing in any normal game and match overall shouldn't be counted. I don't understand other — why they hiding conditions and force people second guess. The point you making research over game considering well. Match that was played in appropriate way to judge balance state. You can’t include DC games just because it's half of matches in this game. The only thing you can do is reconsider abandon and change win conditions.
If this is inflated following your logic — it just proves win conditions are cost nothing and high KR/low ER shouldn't be the reason of specific decision making around balancing. So hinting “we need inflate/deflate rates, so that's why X change is justified” simply not working. Because you are trying to make decision according data that gathered in wrong way, and therefore compromised.
If it turns out survs ER even lower, then you fundamentally need reconsider mmr conditions and way of data gathering. Because you can’t make any rational conclusion over bs that's not working.
Basically… it’s same as their surveys. They not working simply as they supposed to.
They had 9 years for figuring out what to do and the best idea was breaking MMR, fundamentally making any data unworthy.
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They also exclude DC from killer side, AFK, go next and farming matches according their words
Do you have a reference for this? I'd like to know more about that. I'm not even sure how they'd identify some of those things.
I'd also say killer DCs are way less common. I've probably had 5 in my last 100 survivor matches, and one I recall didn't seem intentional, probably an internet problem, because they were on a winning trajectory. And, as I stated, 17% of my killer matches had survivor DCs in them.
I understand why they exclude DCes, because from sportsmanlike behaviour this is considered griefing in any normal game and match overall shouldn't be counted
Sometimes, but I've been in many matches where a survivor on death hook gets downed and immediately DCs out of anger. They were going to die anyway, and nothing in the match was changed, yet now it's been thrown out.
If it turns out survs ER even lower, then you fundamentally need reconsider mmr conditions and way of data gathering. Because you can’t make any rational conclusion over bs that's not working.
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if true ERs are 30-35% and KRs are 65-70%. The killer is the selling role of this game. They have to keep them happy. I know the forum isn't the best example of average players, but when people post their stats here, almost all are well above the 60%. Many are in the 75-90% range. Even my overall KR is above the 60% and I'm not good at all, and I also give hatches and mercy. So it's hard for me to believe that killers are sitting at 60%. Meanwhile, people post their inflated survivor stats to make people shut up about soloq being hard. And it's not like they can't fix it. Just adjust abandons to register as losses. Show us the real numbers so we have something to go off of.
They had 9 years for figuring out what to do and the best idea was breaking MMR, fundamentally making any data unworthy.
Well, there's a rework coming, God help us. It'll probably just get worse. People liked the rank system. They need to reconsider something similar.
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I find the silence interesting as well. Its not like the posts aren't seen, some times the replies are very quick.
It's funny that the abandon system might be the biggest 'QoL' change that actually went through on the quality of life period, and somehow even that got fumbled.
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Do you have a reference for this? I'd like to know more about that. I'm not even sure how they'd identify some of those things.
I barely remember, but as I know it wasn’t on forum and was related with question of why SM had top KR.
Everything else you told for me are just a bias I won’t take seriously. Don’t even want to contribute to another “killer took everything, trying to shut up people” take when I clearly said it’s just a consequence of terrible matchmaking. My position is pretty clear here. This bs speculations not for me.
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Yeah i have a number of them.
I haven't got any screenshots regarding Abandons though, aside from when we last got official stats and they said matches with hatch, DC, and abandons don't count in official KR/ERs. Prior to that, Peanits has said before that matches with hatch and DCs don't count. So stands to reason that Abandons function in the system the same as a DC. If they did count DCs and abandons, then they'd have to count hatch as an escape and I'm not sure how I'd feel about that tbh. Making hatch a win condition would increase slugging for the 4k.
In regards to personal MMR, if someone DCs (and presumably abandons) or gets hatch, then the killer doesn't get any sort of MMR increase or decrease for that particular survivor (and neither does the survivor themself), but still will for any other survivors sacrificed/escaped that match (and how much MMR they get or lose depends on the individual survivor's MMR - you get more increase for sacrificing a higher MMR survivor than a lower MMR survivor). That's because MMR is treated as a 1v1v1v1v1. I suppose this is to stop people from ping ponging between MMR brackets. But I could be wrong.
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I haven't got any screenshots regarding Abandons though, aside from when we last got official stats and they said matches with hatch, DC, and abandons don't count in
officialKR/ERs.
Whoa what? The whole match is tossed for these things?! This is almost every single match that happens!
Making hatch a win condition would increase slugging for the 4k.
It's already pretty bad but we could just solve slugging for the 4k. First of the two people who gets downed can self-recover in 30s, or they can fast bleedout in 30s and rob the killer of the kill. Both options would help convince killers to hook instead of slug. Why have the hatch anyway if we're going to treat it this way?
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Hatch's only purpose is to ensure the game comes to an end. Prior to hatch, people could have stand offs that lasted hours (who has that sort of time on their hands lol honestly). So hatch was put in so either the survivor leaves and games ends, or killer closes it and the countdown starts.
Re abandons, as I also said, we don't have any info regarding that so it might function slightly different since abandoning happens quite a lot more. For all we know it might count games where one abandon happens but not games with multiple (since that means slugging, and slugging isn’t a win condition). That's all my assumption though. Since Peanits got a new role, he isn’t around here anymore. He was the one who knew the ins and outs of the system and shared what he could.
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If killers could abandon when exit gates are open, we would see inflated kill rates too.
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Well again we cannot assume a higher % kill rate because as we agreed before, we don't know if they are including the abandons in their official stats released to us. Also, I know your anecdotals were dc's more relating to losses, however most my dc's are near the beginning before the games even lost.
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I mean I also typically abandon at the end to move to the lobby faster/ready up faster. Which if that then isn't tracked is odd.
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We can assume a higher real kill rate though. Survivors DC more and those matches typically end in the killer winning. Obviously we shouldn't count those matches for balancing reasons and the numbers should be presented both with and without but it would be helpful to know what kill rates look like when these matches are included. If there is a high enough discrepancy between the two it might even be the kick some people need to DC less.
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Kill stats involving dc's are irrelevant. The stats purpose is for balance. You don't gauge balancing on games that might have only been won because of a dc, that wouldn't make sense. Why a game is a win or loss matters a lot more than just if it was a win or loss.
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I'm talking about DCs, not abandons. But Nazzzak said above that abandon matches were stated to not be counted as well. I personally don't remember the parameters that came out with the numbers, nor can I find the info.
But let's assume, for the sake of argument, that abandon matches are also tossed, which I think would be absurd. Out of my 116 matches, 52 featured at least one abandon. That's 44%. If that many were excluded, then what even matters?
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I would love to see these two sets of numbers side-by-side.
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Stats are stats and can be used for whatever purpose we decide to use them for. I specifically stated we shouldn't use the stat with DCs to balance the game. They are absolutely relevant to my experience in the game, if my teammate DCs I still have to play through that match. That experience is valid and worth examining.
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Right that's lots of abandons, but if we don't know if those are included in their official stats then we can't draw any conclusions about deflated kill rates.
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You're referencing value on them outside of kills for balancing, but what other value would you draw from that? Give me an example. Note we aren't saying tracking dc rates, they can already see that internally, what value from specifically making it effect the kill rate stats we're shown.
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The Kill Rate with DCs is the real experience of the game, this would have a direct impact on how people view and discuss the game. Maybe it even turns out that killers DC way more than we think and Kill Rates actually go down from including DCs. I think that's unlikely, but would be happy to be proven wrong. If it instead shows us that survivors DC in say 30% of matches, then yes we do have a DC epidemic and points to there being a serious problem with the health of the game AND would show that the 60 percent kill rate they show us is basically meaningless as far as real experience queuing into a match is concerned.
Really, any data BHVR can provide I would love to see. Why does it seem like you are against BHVR providing us with more data?
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it is inaccurate for sure as i have just over 900hrs through steam and it only says i have about 200-300 ish hours… (note i only had abt 60 before the time it said it wouldve started tracking)
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The problem with what you're suggesting is it would be interpreted for balance by the player base. Whether that's kill rates going up or down it doesn't matter, it's still giving a false perception of the games balance to killers or survivors. Now if you want to have them just show us the DC rate stats, I'm totally fine with that, since it wouldn't be misleading and skewing peoples perceptions of balance.
I'm not against more data, I'm against how you're wanting it presented that would mislead people on the games balance. It's very easy for people to misinterpret data. As said above, if you want to see how bad the dc epidemic is with just dc stats and then we can extrapolate the impact of that on games, I'm all for that, we can use that to make positive changes. However kill rate stats specifically are there for balance interpretation and we don't want those stats artificially influenced by things not related to balance.
For example, knowing that 60% of people dc against SM is good information since this shows people really don't like something about her and she probably needs changes, that's useful. Just throwing those dc wins into her kill rate however, now makes it look like she's just over-tuned. One shows a power problem, one shows a design/fun/interactivity problem. Two very different outcomes with how the data is presented.
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Abandoning is more or less forfeiting and therefore should be handled as giving up/losing. Simple.
I don't even know how anyone would wrap their heads around this topic to make it an escape on the survivor side in ANY statistic.
This is very weird.
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Any data we are given will get misinterpreted or misconstrued to fit a narrative. Just look at the Japan data, one content creator pushes the narrative that is just "mentality" differences when there is zero evidence to back that claim up. If there are mentality differences, no one even considers that they potentially have the causality backwards, better outcomes (for survivors) leading to better mentality. It also ignores that basically anyone who even knows those stats exist, watches a video on them, or discusses them somewhere already has a different mentality about the game.
The playerbase already has a skewed perception of balance. We have data showing that 4 man SWF in high MMR have a below 50% escape rate and people will still claim that these squads are unbeatable. The January to March stats stated that kill rate for high MMR killers goes up from 60 overall to 63 and escape rate for high MMR survivor also goes up from 41 overall to 42. Yet, we still have people that at high MMR the game becomes survivor sided. At some point you just have to stop caring what these people think and ignore whatever narrative they are trying to push.
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"We have data showing that 4 man SWF in high MMR have a below 50% escape rate and people will still claim that these squads are unbeatable."
This is extreme hyperbole. This is not what people say. They simply say it's very unbalanced, which is true. There's a difference between causation and correlation. Kill rates going up or down does not always mean balanced or not balanced. There are many things in DBD that heavily skew kills to happen or not happen that have nothing to do with balance or are representative of it. This is why going by kills for balance is flawed in the first place, but that's another topic. This is why even though Nurse has a very low kill rate, we still know she's the best in the game, or why even when we look at kill rates vs 4 swf it looks different that what nearly everyone who actually plays at high mmr knows it's heavily balanced in their favor. Stats don't show a lot. This is why I mention why people win or lose is a lot more important than just if they win or lose.
While yes people already do misinterpret stats, lumping all the dc's into kills just makes this even worse than it already is. Just because the situations bad doesn't justify making it worse. If you really care about showing dc's then simply giving dc stats would make way more sense and cause less misinterpretation.
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People absolutely call them unbeatable, that isn't hyperbole extreme or otherwise, sure not everyone, but enough that it is noticeable. A below 50 percent escape rate shows that it isn't unbalanced, lower skill killers just think it is and yes it depends on which killer you are playing but the overall is balanced.
nearly everyone who actually plays at high mmr knows it's heavily balanced in their favor
Then why doesn't the data back that notion up? Its because it isn't the truth, its a hypothesis, that the data refutes. Unless you are trying to claim that they are intentionally dying in endgame. Edit: I would be very in support of getting data on how many kills are happening in endgame vs how many happen before endgame.
What the data actually supports is that high MMR survivors and high MMR killers end up facing lower MMR players, this is supported by BOTH the kill rate and escape rate going UP for high MMR players. That can only happen if we have matches that are cross MMR. The killers that go against these squads and think its unbalanced are much more likely to have gotten a match where they have been matched UP and thus are losing to more skilled players, not unbalanced. Who do you think these high MMR four mans are losing to? The matches where they are being placed against killers with lower skill than them or the matches where they get a killer also in high MMR.
Edit: I do agree that kill rate should not be the only factor in balance, but it should be a factor. It directly relates to how hard that killer is to face. Yes, it needs to be approached with nuance and broken down based on the skill of the person playing the killer, the skill of the players being faced, and the killer being played . But the tendency has been to ignore anything that refutes the false narrative of the game being survivor sided in high MMR.
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"People absolutely call them unbeatable, that isn't hyperbole extreme or otherwise, sure not everyone, but enough that it is noticeable. "
They don't. I'm sure there's some small insignificant portion, but the vast majority do not.
"A below 50 percent escape rate shows that it isn't unbalanced, lower skill killers just think it is and yes it depends on which killer you are playing but the overall is balanced."
As I said before, stats are skewed by a multitude of factors unrelated to balance. Nurse has a low kill rate, should we buff her? This is why you can't just go by kill rates for your conclusions.
'Then why doesn't the data back that notion up?"
Because you're misinterpreting the data. You're using causation for the data instead of correlation.
"What the data actually supports is that high MMR survivors and high MMR killers end up facing lower MMR players, this is supported by BOTH the kill rate and escape rate going UP for high MMR players. "
So mismatch of skill with mmr is a big factor skewing escape/kill rates. This is one of many factors as to why you shouldn't be taking kill rates as face value as you are.
"The killers that go against these squads and think its unbalanced are much more likely to have gotten a match where they have been matched UP and thus are losing to more skilled players, not unbalanced."
This is again, you making an assumption. Like I've got 12k hours in DBD and an extremely high kill rate on some killers (like high 95%+ with hundreds and hundreds of matches in that sample size). I can tell when a match is lost through skill mismatch vs balance problems. Calling those squad matchups lost from skill instead of balance, is you assuming.
"Who do you think these high MMR four mans are losing to? "
You can simultaneously have an unfair advantage as a 4 man swf and still lose a lot. It's because 4 people leaves room for lots of mistakes and because they get greedy at end game wanting to save their friends. Them throwing the games at the end for teammates isn't indicative of balance.
If both the killer and a 4 man swf are equal skill and both play perfectly, the killer loses basically every time, bar a few top tier killers. Thankfully most survivors make lots of mistakes, but the match is there for them to win or lose by balance at the top end. This is why groups are heavily nerfed in comp, it's for a reason.
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This is again, you making an assumption. Like I've got 12k hours in DBD and an extremely high kill rate on some killers (like high 95%+ with hundreds and hundreds of matches in that sample size). I can tell when a match is lost through skill mismatch vs balance problems. Calling those squad matchups lost from skill instead of balance, is you assuming.
This right here says everything we need to know. You have a 95% kill rate, literally a win EVERY match kill rate, and you still think the game is balanced against you.
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I never said the game was balanced against me. What I said was that it isn't balanced vs a 4 man.
Someone can have an unfair advantage and you still beat them regularly. It doesn't change that it's an unbalanced advantage. Thankfully being higher skilled you can outplay that advantage a good amount of the time.
Does me pointing out a comp survivor with a crazy high win rate mean anything? No, they're just better than most the people they're facing. Their win rate doesn't mean there isn't balance problems.
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And yet you beat those four mans, every time. If you can outplay it, every time, that advantage doesn't really exist.
Yes, it does mean something with the proper comparison and that proper comparison is comp killer win streaks which go significantly longer.
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"And yet you beat those four mans, every time. If you can outplay it, every time, that advantage doesn't really exist."
Again, more hyperbole. Being able to outplay something, doesn't mean the advantage doesn't exist, that makes no sense. If two guys are fighting, one's using fists, the other has a sword, but the guy with fists wins, that doesn't mean the guy with the sword didn't have an advantage lol. It just meant the guy with fists had to be significantly more skilled to win and it wasn't a fair match. If both had been equally skilled the guy with the fists would lose every time. Just because he's outplaying the guys with swords doesn't mean the guys with swords shouldn't be balanced better.
"Yes, it does mean something with the proper comparison and that proper comparison is comp killer win streaks which go significantly longer."
No, they do not. The only time the killer streaks are going longer like you're referencing are the few outlier top tier killers that are an exception. Which none of the stuff I've said here I'm applying to them, they even would be nerfed if it was up to me. For the vast majority of the killer roster however, their streaks are not going longer.
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A single fight isn't a real comparison. If the guy using fists wins against guys with swords every time or most of the time, even against skilled guys with swords, then something about fighting with fists, or the way they specifically fight with fists, is actually giving them an advantage over guys with swords.
I don't think this is worth continuing.
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"If the guy using fists wins against guys with swords every time or most of the time, even against skilled guys with swords, then something about fighting with fists, or the way they specifically fight with fists, is actually giving them an advantage over guys with swords."
Just no. The vast majority of everyone would not think this in the scenario I described.
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