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End Game Collapse | Statistics
Prologue: Experiment Results
Hello, a while ago I decided to experiment with the EGC and see the odds of survival as the last survivor attempting to escape.
My reasoning in doing this is to see whether or not the EGC is skewed too much in favor for the killer. With that said, I wanted the survival rate to be 25% since I felt like it was fair for both sides.
Results
Before I tell you the results, here are all of the rules players had to follow in my experiment:
- Vanilla gameplay, which means you can't equip any perks, items, or add-ons.
- The killer cannot use their power and they must be 115% (4.6m/s).
- The survivor can only leave through the Exit Gates, not through the hatch — unless they find a key.
This experiment was performed on XB1.
Now, with that said, I want to stress the next part, these numbers are subject to change since I'm always expanding on the experiment with more games.
With 37 games, the survivor's odds of survival in the EGC is:
16%
Trends
- Most sacrifices where due to Exit Gates spawning on the same wall.
- Indoor maps are extremely survivor sided.
- Blackwater Swamp seems to be the most balanced EGC map, compared to other maps.
Epilogue
That's all I have to say for now, and if you want to discuss these results, I'm all for that!
I'll update the thread when more games have been added into the mix! 🤗😁
Comments
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I just wish the gates didn't spawn on the same wall that really shouldn't be a thing
5 -
My suggestion to fix that is having the Exit Gates spawn on the same wall, but they are sinked into wall so it's impossible to keep both Exit Gates in view.
Here's an example on what I'm talking about:
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First, it just me but i like even things so 37 games...um i like 40. It doesn't change anything just in my eyes and head i go "aaaahhh!"
Second, no Head-on! Ew
Okay now seriousness:
Hmm this seems very interesting. It is close to your goal of 25% with vanilla games. Are you gonna have experiments with just perks? With just add-ons/equipped items? The whole sham-pow!
Another thing you could try is 'How many times does exit gates spawn on the same wall?'
2 -
I think you should update your statistics by testing each killer with their power, minus a few who have obvious advantages if they’re already in play (Trapper trapping Exit Locks, Hag). How does a Nurse using blinks fair against Legion, or against Huntress?
In regards to your findings, I’m not surprised, it’s pretty one sided at that point.
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With the added frenzy speed I find it easier to defend gates in a 1v1
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I mean yeah, I’m just curious for statistics on that. I’d love to see the devs get in on that action as well
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I plan on reaching 60 games, but 37 is enough in my opinion to get a rough estimate, and about the perks, there's no good way to go about using them without there being bias.
For example, I could use Whispers and that's GG for the survivor everytime.
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I see, that's understandable.
2 -
Good number. Survivor doesn't deserve another chance to get out, They already had that with Hatch. Take the L.
7 -
The survivors are supposed to be at a heavy disadvantage during the EGC (unless all gens have been completed). If one person is left, and the hatch has been closed, the killer earned the advantage they now have.
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Do you think Exit Gates spawning on the same wall is deserved for the survivor for playing poorly?
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Yes. Your team played poorly.Why should the killer be punished with RNG? Be happy you got another chance with hatch and another chance with exit gates you don't deserve.
9 -
Do you think exit gates spawning on the opposite side of map, is deserved for the killer for playing well?
3 -
I play both sides, and even this is ridiculous:
If the survivor's only option is to just die then something is definitely wrong, your odds should never be reduced to impossible because simply, we don't know why the survivor team lost.
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Ok, first off; I do not believe hiding the exit gates is good solution at all. It ensures that to check a gate you have to walk right up to it and walk inside the area. That would be an escape every time, as all you have to do is wait for the killer to check the gate you're not at, then it's guaranteed to be more than 20 seconds before they're back. Not to mention you can already shave ~4 seconds off that by stopping the opening action before the first light goes on and hiding to give yourself more breathing room.
As has been said many, MANY times by both people on here and the devs, simply changing gates spawning rules is vastly problematic. Some maps have points where you can see both gates no matter where they spawn (ie Rotten Fields on a harvester.) Sometimes spawning on different walls still allows for line of sight between the two. There's also a huge amount of killers who have no form of mobility that don't deserve to lose the kills just because the game has another factor that favours the already high-tier killers.
If you set a minimum distance between gates, or increase it, you again secure a free escape every time. Look at the indoor maps, all 3 have predetermined gate spawns which have a significant travel time and line of sight blockers. The only way you die on these maps in the end game is if you make a mistake, or if the killer makes an absolute fluke of a guess and doubles back at the exact right time. (Barring specific killer powers, ie mobility/traps.)
As you well know, and has been stated many times in the past, the 1v1 end game collapse SHOULD be in the killer's favour. Your team has failed to do enough generators. You have failed to find and escape through the hatch before the killer shut it. Powering the gates is really just a formality so you have some chance of escape. It should definitely not be a 50/50 shot of escape when the killer has played the game perfectly to that point, that's what the hatch is for. More importantly, it should not be survivor-favoured, which I'm sorry, but your suggestion is.
Edit: Honestly, 1 in 6 (your current result) is a pretty decent shot at escaping considering the circumstances. And that's an incredibly small sample size regardless.
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Ya it does suck. I normally just wrote it off as the survivor has failed when it gets to that point so why should the reward of success be easy despite the facts of failure.
At least it seems some doors are RNG on some maps. Others not so much. If doors are on the same wall fine I can accept that, but what I hate is both doors having LoS from a hill.
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Xb1 huh?
If you may,I would like statistics for PC and PS4 too,if you wanna find PC players,I'm available.
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Both extremes aren't fair, but it's more likely than not, survivors are stuck with Exit Gates on the same wall. I played countless maps where the survivor's odds are rendered impossible against a good killer. Even the indoor maps aren't fair, I don't think the killer deserves an impossible chance to catch the last survivor.
I think we both want the same thing here, that being a fair chance for both sides.
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So what's wrong with it? This is a 4 v 1 game. Your odds of escaping should be decreasing the lesser your number is and the killer becomes more of a threat, The fact that you even got a 50-50 hatch and still want a 50-50 gate is the one that's ridiculous. Why the killer has to roll the dice TWICE despite demolishing the opposite team is beyond me.
Again, Take the L. None of you deserved to escape in that scenario. Do your best to farm points, You should get a pip if you were actually was an asset in that match.
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In my example, you can easily tweak the distance between the spawns to make sure the survivor has to play perfect to escape. Ideally, I was thinking it should take 7 seconds to travel point A to point B, which would be 14 seconds for a full rotation.
Then, if the survivor set everything up by shaving off 4 seconds off the Exit Gates, that's 2 seconds left for them to open the Exit Gates. The survivor needs to do something else to get the last 2 seconds, and I know, this sound strong, but that's assuming:
- Vanilla gameplay, which means you can't equip any perks, items, or add-ons.
- The killer cannot use their power and they must be 115% (4.6m/s).
There's a lot of things that can straight up stop the survivor from getting close to opening the Exit Gates if those rules weren't there.
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I never said the Exit Gates should be a 50/50, if you read my post, you would have seen this on the second paragraph on my post:
I just want the survivor to have at least a chance, and having the Exit Gates spawn on the same wall is just not fair. The same applies to the killer when they spawn on the opposite sides of the map, that's not fair either.
I don't think both sides should have an impossible chance of completing their objective.
1 -
Even so you're idealising the situation. If you made the gates hidden like this, you would still encounter the same situations where both can be seen from the same points. You can't flatten every map to remove every vantage point, or remove any RNG of tiles that might provide a gap to see through.
If you predetermine distance around the travel time of an M1 killer, then you haven't balanced anything at all. It's either possible for them to get from one gate to the other in less than 10 seconds or it's not. If it is, the killer always wins, if it's not, the survivor does. And there's nothing to stop the killer looking behind themselves as they walk to the other gate which cuts however many seconds of line of sight that they get off time to actually open it.
Even then, Billy, Spirit, Legion, and any other killer with the slightest bit of mobility gets guaranteed kills.
As it is, it's possible to escape the end game collapse alone. It's hard, but it happens. Sometimes RNG favours the killer, sometimes it favours the survivor, and sometimes it's outright impossible to get between gate a and b in 20 seconds. I think what we have currently is as fair as it's going to be, and I certainly hope they don't make it a secondary hatch to punish the killer for playing well.
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I don't see how you can get a vantage point in this scenario here:
I couldn't find not even a single spot in this picture where the killer can see both Exit Gates, unless you're talking about the entrances, but then again, what if the survivor is already there?
About the balancing around the M1 killer, that's just me telling you how easy it would be to change how close or how far they spawn. I think it would be best that 25% of the time, the survivor will get favorable spawns and the other 75% not favorable spawns. Favorable spawns for the survivor doesn't automatically mean, "They win, they escape" because there's still a process that survivor has to go through and there's still a lot that can go wrong on their part.
Ultimately, this would need testing, but I think this is the only solution besides @SpaceCoconut's idea to make the EGC fair for both sides. Fair meaning, 25/75.
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You look in gate A. You walk towards gate B while watching gate A's entrance. A quick glance into B lets you stand at gate B watching gate A until the survivor gives up or the timer runs out. It's only minorly better than just being able to see the switches.
I honestly don't understand how you've concocted the idea that there's some magic distance that will make a skilled survivor get out. If the killer can get from seeing one gate to the other in 10 seconds or less, they win. If they cannot, the survivor wins. It still completely relies on the RNG that there isn't line of sight between the gate entrances, or on the path between them. You can calculate the exact walking distance that can be made in that time and you'll still get gates that can be seen from one spot.
There's no magic distance where a good killer player walks in a straight line back and forth and a bad one thinks that they'll go take a pee break in the corner instead. It's still entirely down to luck of the spawns based on line of sight, and your solution is just as problematic.
Either the killer can patrol them fast enough, or they're so far apart that only mobile killers can reasonably win in the end game.
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You look in gate A. You walk towards gate B while watching gate A's entrance. A quick glance into B lets you stand at gate B watching gate A until the survivor gives up or the timer runs out. It's only minorly better than just being able to see the switches.
Specifically: "You look in gate A"
When you search a gate area, you're losing a lot of time because the survivor can be at the other gate opening it, especially when you have to make your way from the hatch to a gate. That's not the way to go about it because you're already putting yourself at a 50/50 for no reason.
The best thing you can do is check gate A then quickly check gate B to make sure the survivor isn't already at the gate you decide to check second.
I honestly don't understand how you've concocted the idea that there's some magic distance that will make a skilled survivor get out. If the killer can get from seeing one gate to the other in 10 seconds or less, they win. If they cannot, the survivor wins. It still completely relies on the RNG that there isn't line of sight between the gate entrances, or on the path between them. You can calculate the exact walking distance that can be made in that time and you'll still get gates that can be seen from one spot.
AND
There's no magic distance where a good killer player walks in a straight line back and forth and a bad one thinks that they'll go take a pee break in the corner instead. It's still entirely down to luck of the spawns based on line of sight, and your solution is just as problematic.
That's why we have a calculator that determines whether or not the survivor gets a chance to escape, assuming they do everything correctly. The calculator will roll the dice and see if they get a favorable gate spawn or not.
There's a 25% chance the survivor will get a favorable spawn and a 75% chance they won't get a favorable spawn.
Favorable spawns will be around 8 seconds apart.
Not favorable spawns will be around 5 seconds apart.
Once the survivor gets a favorable spawn, they have to position themselves, prime the Exit Gates, then hope they managed their time well enough when they commit to the Gates. Not all survivors will get the opportunity to do that depending on the killer, perks, and their situation before hand.
Either the killer can patrol them fast enough, or they're so far apart that only mobile killers can reasonably win in the end game.
Explained everything above. 😁
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Your "Trends" section has little value without the data. Even then your sample size is too small to draw conclusions.
Suggestions to make your post more useful:
Most sacrifices where due to Exit Gates spawning on the same wall.
What percentage is that?
Indoor maps are extremely survivor sided.
What percentage of maps were indoor?
Blackwater Swamp seems to be the most balanced EGC map, compared to other maps
There is no such map. Blackwater Swamp is a realm that has two maps: The Pale Rose and Grim Pantry. Are you referring to the realm or a specific map? What percentage of games were on maps of the Blackwater Swamp realm or the specific map?
Now, with that said, I want to stress the next part, these numbers are subject to change since I'm always expanding on the experiment with more games.
You should specify and separate the numbers by game version as patches can be impactful.
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Thank you for the feedback, just replying to let you know that I read and understood everything!
I'll let you know when I updated the thread! 😁🤗
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You are wasting your breath here, because even if the developers were determined to implement your idea, they couldn't do it. Why? Because they suck at coding. Plain and simple.
Look at totems spots. They are supposed to be out of line of sight from the spawnpoint of the survivors. But in reality that is quite often not the case. Totems STILL spawn where you can litterally see them in the intro sequence. Now thats just 2 points. Now imagine MULTIPLE points across the entire map. Or quite litterally checking the entire map for vantage points that allowed the killer to watch the exit gates by just walking a few metres left and right. You are expecting something from Behaviour, which they have proven to not be mentally even capable of in their dreams.
0 -
You don't need a system if both Exit Gates spawn like this:
I want you to draw a dot somewhere in this picture within the red polygon, then draw a line to both Exit Gates. If that line hits anything besides where the Exit Gates are positioned at, then the killer cannot see both Exit Gates and must traverse to the next point to see the other Exit Gate.
Do you see where I'm coming from? 🤗😁
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I think my issue with this whole discussion happening here is that tweaking the exit gates doesn't just effect interactions when its just one survivor left. Changing the exit gates spawns when the whole team is alive for example would guarantee survivors escape. The exit gates function the same in either scenario, a change to one will effect the other. It would just be impossible to defend the gates effectively against 4 people with your proposed changes. You can't just balance for only one survivor being left having a fair chance to escape. Because exit gate gameplay can happen with anywhere from 1-4 survivors.
EDIT: Go ahead and test the effect by redoing your experiment with the same rules. (115%, no powers) except 4 survivors alive and tell us the kill rate. Then maybe come check back and see if the proposed change is still fair. Or if killers need a better chance so it doesn't feel impossible after they've already failed.
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Its interesting to see the stats. I do agree the egc is too killer sided atm and it should be a bit fairer for both.
I don't really like the door concept as its a closed in area and affects the whole game with more left alive and not just egc.
Personally I would like more options to open the doors. Maybe a lever or two which when used takes 10s and reduces the door time by 5 seconds for each one or they just hide the first two lights from being seen.
Something to give it a more interactive experience within the timer as right now if the doors are close to spite the killer i'd say a large portion will just hide and die to the egc.
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You should have at least one survivor dead by the 5th generator being completed, and if you patrol the gates, you will find at least one survivor attempting to open the Exit Gates for the entire team.
Chase them and down them, make sure they don't pull a fast one on you by attempting to escape mid-chase. At that point, you got a 2K, that's the balance the developers want.
Survivors try to go for the unhook? Down the savior until the EGC forces them out.
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Your map is just azarov's resting place if the gates were guaranteed to spawn on opposite sides its a guaranteed escape for survivors
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This would involve camping (-> more complaints of survivors)
Also, by the logic that you have to have one survivor dead by 5 gens completed you can also say that survivors should not have 3 dead before 5 gens completed. And you also assume that the last chase leads to a guaranteed kill...
Edit: I play both survivor and killer and I think atm survivor is too strong already, at least it is easier to achieve a high rank. Back when the game came out and I started I needed a lot longer to achieve rank 1 with survivor than I needed with killer. Now, it is the other way around. I dont think that survivors need another buff.
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I don't think you seen my comment, so I'll post it again here since it answers the problem you're seeing with my idea! 😁🤗
That's why we have a calculator that determines whether or not the survivor gets a chance to escape, assuming they do everything correctly. The calculator will roll the dice and see if they get a favorable gate spawn or not.
There's a 25% chance the survivor will get a favorable spawn and a 75% chance they won't get a favorable spawn.
Favorable spawns will be around 8 seconds apart.
Not favorable spawns will be around 5 seconds apart.
Once the survivor gets a favorable spawn, they have to position themselves, prime the Exit Gates, then hope they managed their time well enough when they commit to the Gates. Not all survivors will get the opportunity to do that depending on the killer, perks, and their situation before hand.
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I'd rather not see myself getting cucked put of a pip or even a double pip after I was winning to the point where I destroyed 3 out of 4 survivors and closing the hatch but losing to rng because my movement speed wasn't enough and also rng half the time won't block up god windows I have my doubts about a calculator being unfair to survivors
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Okay, let's assume the survivor gets lucky (they got the 25% chance) and got ideal gate spawns with my setup.
They will have to do the following to get their chance to survive:
- Cannot be injured (Killer will hear you waiting at the Exit Gates, but this is countered by Iron Will)
- If the killer is: Trapper, Billy, Freddy (Dream Snares), Demogorgon, Ghostface (Countered by Spine Chill), Wraith (Countered by Spine Chill), Hag (Partially countered by Urban Evasion), Plague, Clown (Partially countered by Calm Spirit), or Doctor (Partially countered by Calm Spirit)... Then you are dead.
- If the killer is running: Whispers or Remember Me (If you're not the Obsession)... Then you are dead.
- Make your way to an Exit Gate undetected and with close proximity to the Exit Gate switches, must do this before 50% of the EGC expires.
- Wait for the killer to leave your Exit Gate, then prime the Exit Gates by progressing it just before the first light. After doing this, go back into hiding and wait for the killer start a new rotation.
- Once the killer leaves again, commit to opening the Exit Gates. If the EGC timer is flashing before you committed to opening the Exit Gates, you were too slow with preparation — you're dead.
That's what it takes for the survivor, with decent Exit Gate spawns, to escape during the EGC by themselves.
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Honestly its fortunate survivors get one last escape attempt at sll..the fact that people believe escape should still be constant after not one but two failures astounds me
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I'm one of those people, because I don't believe in your odds being reduced to 0% is fair at all. The same applies to the killer because they have those situations too when the gates spawn opposite to each other. 😁🤗
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This is pretty cool and I hope the devs see this. Why they aren’t able to get their own data on something so important is beyond me, but you did awesome. I figured it would be a shockingly low percent, especially since the damn doors are always next to each other.
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Yet that's not the only time is it ? What bothers me is as killer you make a minor mistake and you pay for it by potentially losing the game entirely..yet even when the team fails as survivor the killer has to play a boring version of hide and seek just to prevent a severe hit to emblems due to a mechanic that's nothing more than a handout with no need to earn it..this same mechanic also encourages team mates to give up even when victory is possible just to hide for the hatch..that in my eyes is the real issue here
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I'm okay with the survivor dying in the EGC, I just don't like to die when that's my only option left because the Exit Gates spawn on the same wall.
I'm also in favor of balancing opposite Exit Gates, make them more fair to the killer. 🤗😁
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Perhaps..I just feel like making it an even 50 50 isnt fair either because as iterated..said survivor has already failed to escape twice
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In my OP, I suggested 25/75. 😁🤗
I made many posts talking about how the new system would work!
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Hmm..its tricky I suppose
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I think the doors should stay RNG. During a "last one alive" situation where the hatch has been closed, they should never have a guaranteed escape. The doors being on one side would be pretty much a guaranteed escape. For example - Lery's, Hawkins and The Game (which is the smallest map in the game from one side to the other, BTW). Having said that, the only maps I see the doors spawn opposite on are the indoor maps. I've literally never seen it on other maps. It should be there as a possibility, but not happen everytime.
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That's the problem with indoor maps, they always have opposite Exit Gate spawns.
That's why if I want a chill game as survivor, I'll just throw on a indoor map offering and the killer cannot do nothing to me, unless they are running certain builds.
Both extremes aren't okay at the end, both sides shouldn't be left with a 0% chance to complete their objective. I will always stand by that because it's just not right for the survivor or killer to give up due to poor RNG.
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Both sides shouldn't be left with 0 chance, but if there's one person left and hatch was closed, the survivor should have a significantly less chance of success than killer. Currently, there is never a situation where there's 0 percent chance.
Do you know how often I've mind gamed a killer and started one gate, then went to the other one and opened it while they were searching? It's difficult, but it should be difficult. It's not impossible.
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That's exactly what I'm trying to say, that's why I want the current system changed, for the better of both sides. 😁🤗
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Are you telling me that after survivors fail at their primary objective and then the last survivor fails at the 2nd chance to escape, that their 3rd chance to escape is only 16%? Damn, that's incredibly unfair. Obviously, the logic that 50% chance escape on primary objective, 25% chance on 2nd, and 12.5% chance on 3rd would be the most direct path will have to be ignored for the sake of this conversation cause there's no room for logic here.
How dare survivors have such a small chance to escape and deny killers a 4K after the killer has played the game far better than the survivors and clearly doesn't deserve to be rewarded for it?! I think we need to install a 4th chance for survivors to get out in order to make this fair.
2
