I need some help from somebody good at maths.
I want to calculate my total chance of escaping the hook.
With a 4% base chance + 9% from up the ante + 3% from Vigo's jar of salty lips = 16% chance
If I also run slippery meat, I get an extra 4% for each unhook attempt
With this, we end up with the formula X = 12+4N (16%, 20%, 24%, 28%, 32%, 36%)
How can use this formula to calculate my total chance, since the chances don't stack?
Thanks in advance
Comments
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20% chance to unhook, 6 attemps
0.8^6= about 0.26 or 26% to fail
So 74% you unhook yourself in one of the 6 attemps
If i'm not mistaken, i'm tired
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I'm pretty sure chances in this case are multiplicative. my statistics are a bit rusty, but I'm pretty sure base chance it's 4x3 = 12%, that means that with more chances to escape (which in this case will increase the escape chance more than the 4% increase from slippery) we get 6 (escape attempts) x 20% (escape chance).
that's 20% chance on 6 tries.
obviously, it's not 120%.
let's look at it like dice.
let's say you have 6d5 (not real dice, just go with it), and you need to roll at least one 5.
(and this is the point where I forget how to move further with the math)
in conclusion, run deliverance/kindred and don't ######### on hook. :P
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right, exponents, that's the part I forgot.
so, yeah, about 74% to succeed.
(thanks for helping me, I always forget the exponents.)
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Right okay so.
You have a 4% chance by default. With 3 survivors alive, 9% from Up The Ante, and then 3% from VJOSL. This makes a total of 16% chance per attempt, as you figured out. Slippery Meat makes that 20%, and also grants you 6 attempts over the usual 3.
So, you have a 0.2 chance of escaping a hook per attempt, and 6 attempts. To find out the probability for events with perfect negative correlation, we plug it into the formula 1-(1-p)^x, where p is the probability in decimals and x is the number of attempts we have.
In this case, it would be 1-(1-0.2)^6 = 1-(0.8)^6 = 1-0.262144, or 0.737856.
So, using that build, you have roughly a 74% chance that one of your attempts will be successful, provided all 3 other survivors remain alive in the trial.
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Thank you both, just one more question, shouldn't it be 0.74^6 instead of 0.8^6 since the average % is 26?
Sorry if this is a dumb question, as you may see I'm not the best at maths
edit: Me stupid, thought slippery meat added 4% every failed unhook, not just a base 4%
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You beat me to it but hey at least we've validated each other's answers
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