I need some help from somebody good at maths.

I'm pretty sure chances in this case are multiplicative. my statistics are a bit rusty, but I'm pretty sure base chance it's 4x3 = 12%, that means that with more chances to escape (which in this case will increase the escape chance more than the 4% increase from slippery) we get 6 (escape attempts) x 20% (escape chance).

that's 20% chance on 6 tries.

obviously, it's not 120%.

let's look at it like dice.

let's say you have 6d5 (not real dice, just go with it), and you need to roll at least one 5.

(and this is the point where I forget how to move further with the math)

in conclusion, run deliverance/kindred and don't ######### on hook. :P

Right okay so.

You have a 4% chance by default. With 3 survivors alive, 9% from Up The Ante, and then 3% from VJOSL. This makes a total of 16% chance per attempt, as you figured out. Slippery Meat makes that 20%, and also grants you 6 attempts over the usual 3.

So, you have a 0.2 chance of escaping a hook per attempt, and 6 attempts. To find out the probability for events with perfect negative correlation, we plug it into the formula 1-(1-p)^x, where p is the probability in decimals and x is the number of attempts we have.

In this case, it would be 1-(1-0.2)^6 = 1-(0.8)^6 = 1-0.262144, or 0.737856.

So, using that build, you have roughly a 74% chance that one of your attempts will be successful, provided all 3 other survivors remain alive in the trial.

You beat me to it but hey at least we've validated each other's answers