If SBMM actually worked....
If the SBMM actually worked wouldn't the average kill rate be 50% and survival rate be 50%?
Let's say all these PTB changes go through and the net effect is killers are buffed 30% by all the compounding effects. The go on a killing rampage and survivors escape rates start to fall, as does their MMR. Eventually their MMR would fall far enough that they would start reliably escaping again. The only difference is now these survivors that have decent skills will be facing killers that are leaning on their new crutches and have comparably lower skill level.
The only place on these skills curves where this isn't true is at the ends where the MMR has a cap and an effective floor. Depending on what percentage of the players live inside these artificially created skill caps, I'm not sure the escape/kill rates will appreciably change but the QUALITY of the matches might be much much more lopsided.
I even see it now already when i'm matched with a lower MMR killer, I'll get into a loop at a T&L wall and after 5 seconds the killer has just lost me. He starts checking lockers and running around with no idea where I went. Keeping in mind I'm not a great looper, I've got some hours so I'm probably average. I shouldn't be matched with killers that I easily make look the fool. This likely means that my MMR is already lower relative to my real skill and the killers MMR is higher than it should be (too much success from camping and tunnelling got them there maybe).
The end result is the game is less compelling and fun. I feel like this next patch is going to do the same thing.
TLDR: MMR should create 50% win rate. What will these PTB changes really do? I think create lopsided matches.
Comments
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You bring up a really good point. If MMR does it's job, then BHVR goal of raising the kill rate is actually just sending more experienced survivors to less experienced killers.
Realistically, the survivor will still just bounce back and forth at a steady MMR of "where they belong" because it'll average out between stomping the killer or getting stomped. Although, with this being how MMR tries to place you, the escape/death rate would still hover around 50% ideally.
I feel like BHVR will monitor this and maybe adjust the matchmaking so that the number changes? It kind of seems a bit backwards in that, they would have to make a SBMM system that would actually put more experienced killers with less experienced survivors to achieve a larger kill rate. And as a person who plays both sides, but enjoys playing survivor soloq more than killer, this would just feel kinda bad if the system was changed to be like this.
I can't imagine that making killers stronger will increase the kill rate because mmr is supposed to put you with a killer that you have a chance with. The only way to make it so that mmr didn't matter, is if you made the killer so OP that survivors had no chance in general.
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So given that kill rates would stay the same except at the highest and lowest mmr, which side will feel worse after these changes? I think low rank and solo q survivor is going to feel bad, real bad.
I think the incentives are going to encourage more camping and more tunnelling not less. I think the highly coordinately high skilled survivor swf's will still dominate killers changing nothing.
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