A Theory; A.... Game Theory If You Will
Few consider the long term about how things being implemented or changed will have an effect. Whether it be one season or one year.
This isn't directed at DBD only, this is a legitimate thing I've noticed on almost every conversation surrounding new or well established multiplayer titles.
Anyone have insight as to actually why? My theory is that it might be the fear people approach modern games with knowing that they can truly just die and be replaced one month after a change.
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(what I'm about to say I have not proven nor can prove, this is all just my observations)
Multiplayer live service games have two camps that they try to work with: New fodder, and Veterans.
New Fodder are the ones who just bought the game and are total newbies to it. They might be totally blind to the game's history/past and looking to try it "to see what all the fuss is about" or they might have heard/seen some things and want to try it themselves.
Veterans have been playing for months, some even years. They've bought a bunch of stuff (DLC, Cosmetics, Season Passes, etc.), played during the events, and may even be active in the community.
Veterans are really the only ones who care about changes being implemented, as they know how it will affect gameplay through their experience. Fodder are fairly oblivious and are more concerned about what there is currently, not fully realizing the gravity of changes. But a single well-known property crossover expansion can offset any lost Veteran players efforts to lower the playercount by bringing in more Fodder.
A live service lives and dies by the playercount and by the amount of money flowing in. A Veteran player might only really buy something if they like the service enough or if the something is for a character or item they particularly like. This is not a value that can be properly expected. But Fodder are a different breed. They just need to be convinced to buy the game and maybe the current content wave. Instant money surge for a short time, but if done several times: then you have consistent flow of cash. Not to mention that every Fodder player can become a Veteran if they decide to stick around, so they'll be dumping more money into the live service. Think about it like with DBD. Playercount can drop by a few thousand because Veteran players leave after some big change, but when a franchise DLC drops: that tends to bring in equal if not more Fodder because "it's a crossover with that thing I like". Completely overshadowing the decrease in Veterans, and leading to a large profit increase (even if a fraction is going to the other property because licensing deals).
Now not every game franchise can be looked at like this, because there are always those little variables that can make a major difference. But a company can view it like this and most often times: they can make it work. So long as new Fodder keeps coming in: profit loss caused by Veterans leaving can be overturned.
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