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I wondered: How long does it take MMR to produce the desired outcome?
I have an account on two different platforms - though one I hardly use. Actually, so far only ever used it to test sth in customs without having to ask someone to go afk for me.
So, having this fresh account, that hasn't seen a single pub match sitting around, I wondered: How many matches does it take until MMR matches me in a way that the desired outcome is achieved (~30-40% escape rate)?
Answer: after 20 matches. Pretty much exactly. The first twenty matches were seven escapes each, one "loss" was MMR neutral since I got hatch. And after that it was exactly the other way around: seven deaths and three escapes. Matchmaking was visibly off tho.
Teamies still didn't know what to do most of the time - but killers did have a good idea. I usually was the last or next to last surv around so a couple of times I was able to get a hold of the killer and ask them about matches as that killer and (killer)hours overall. - They were all new-ish to that specific killer (10-20 matches) but had 200-300 killer hours.
So, the next twenty matches proceeded as follows: the first seven matches the team got wiped. Then I had three matches where there were suddenly frequent P25+ (occasionally even P50+ o.o) - and more than once an absolute baby killer, e.g. a Wraith who didn't know he could kick stuff while cloaked or a Nurse who blinked once and never again (probably first time trying and got dizzy or sth). Naturally those were escapes. --- And the pattern continued for another 10+10 matches. After that I stopped.
I know the devs have pointed out multiple times that the more matches you play the more stable you MMR becomes; even a longer death-streak won't have that much of an impact, especially if you manage to survive longer than the others. But until you reach that point the system overcompensates massively, apparently. And especially the matchmaking of the three-wins-per-10-matches seems incredibly off and like a huge mismatch. - And quite frequently it is reflecting what people point out all the time on the forums: that somehow they (with decent hours and mid-ish MMR) get matched with absolute newbs against newbs -- and still die because you can't run the killer for five gens and do the gens. Throwing one experienced person in doesn't help the three newbs.
Well, anyway. That concludes my small experiment. Idk if anyone is interested but I thought it doesn't hurt to share the observations either.