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Conclusions from data sheet
Comments
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Don't forget during that time.. people were losing their save files... Which caused people to leave.
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@Peanits The only shocking thing for me overall was the survival rate at rank 1, but your explanation basically confirms what @Delfador said, which makes sense.
Can we get a weighted average of rank 1 and rank 2 survival rates, to get an idea of how often the very top DbD players survive?
Also, just so we're clear, stuffing more potatoes in top ranks doesn't make the game more balanced. It just makes ranks less significant in determining skill levels. I say this because you mentioned the survival rates after the pipping threshold was lowered, but all that means is that a significant portion of survivors pip despite failing at their chosen role.
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A weighted average is something I can't do this time around. We only requested the average survival rates, not the number of players in each rank. The best I could do with the stats I have at hand is average the two averages, but that wouldn't be accurate as you already know. We could definitely look into that next time around, though.
Regarding the last bit, that is true, although it's important to note that it was significantly easier to rank up as killer compared to survivor at the time, meaning that an average killer might find themselves in rank 1 and be paired with the best of the best survivors. If it was equally difficult to rank up on both sides, it would be a lot more fair (or at least, a better representation of equally skilled sides), but since it was a little lopsided at the time, it's naturally going to be unfair sometimes.
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Can somebody explain how 50% of survivors playing solo equates to 87% of games having SWF? Don't just say "people don't understand stats," that's not helpful. Or if the reasoning was already posted and I missed it, let me know. Thank you!
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@brokedownpalace probably should elaborate on that.
While any given survivor will have a 50% chance of being solo. There are also 4 survivors any of which could be in a duo or trio even if one of the survivors is solo.
Thus in theory the odds of 4 solo's is 0.5^4
However once we have established 3 solo's the 4th is guaranteed to be solo making the above calculation inaccurate.
Thus 0.5^3
And that works out to 0.125
1-0.125 = 0.875
0.875*100 = 87.5%
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Interesting. Thank you very much! I struggle with math.
I guess everybody but me has friends that play DBD. 😭
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They showed the data in a different way again.
Swf data show that 50% of players play solo... but they don't show how many game include at least 1 swf group. Last time they did, 75% of games contained at least 2 players in a party. Nothing is wrong with it, just people like to play with friends.
Everyone knows some killers are weak af. Clown can shut down loops quicker... but lacks map presence and is simple m1 killer, just like wraith or doc.
Ruin is popular because in many games it gives killer extra time.
In case of bad survivors, they will spend some time looking for ruin, in case of good ones, 20 seconds extra is a lot. Gens just pop too quickly.
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I just hope it won't get her massively nerfed.
She is strong but she is also only killer that is feared by survivors regardless of rank.
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about reading stats @NuclearBurrito @brokedownpalace
chart is about "percentage of all players"
and following your way of thinking ~6% of 4mens = 1,5% of games because chart is showing percentage of players not percentage of lobbys (to guys that wanted to divide soloQ players/4 but SWF not)
i wont even comment RNG lobby which is madman's doing
so lets toss away your way of reading stats
6,5% is 4men, 11,5% is 3men so from 54% of soloQ survs we have to - 11,5%/3 = ~50(i know its 50,166 but its faster this way)
28% are 2men but we can all agree most of 2men can play with other 2men so lets take 3/4 of 2men can play with eachother, 7% needs same amount of players so 50-7=43%
6,5% + (11,5+4)% + (28+7)%+ 43%
those are chances for 4men/3men/2men(with both 2x2 or 2x1x1)/ all 4 soloQ
and if some "math god" wants to tell me you have to divide 43/4 then you have to divide every single of 4men 3men 2men etc why? because its amount of players not amount of lobbys ready to go xdd
i know i may made some mistakes(some because i wanted to make is easier to read) but its closer to truth than dividing 53%/4 or making weird as fck RNG xddd
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It's based on the total number of matches and the groups inside them, not the number of players. I could play in SWF group and then play solo, for example. It's not how one individual plays, it's how all of the matches were played overall.
To keep it simple:
- 6.22% of matches are four-man groups on PC.
- 11.95% of matches are three-man groups on PC.
- These two cannot co-exist in the same lobby, since that would be 7 survivors, so we can just add these two together (18.17% total)
- 28.62% of matches include two-man groups on PC.
- Two-man groups could potentially be playing with other two-man groups, so we can't just add that straight on. At the very minimum, if they all played together, we can count half the total (32.48% total).
So in total, somewhere between 32.48% of all matches and 46.79% of all matches, depending on how the two-man groups and matched with other two-man groups, include some amount of Survive With Friends. 18.17% include a three or four-man group. 6.22% include a four-man group. You can't get the exact number for any group without getting the actual stats.
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Billy is the most popular on PS4 because is strong and more easy than nurse. on PC nurse because you can spin around when blinking which can't be done on console during chase and because she is very strong. stats show the game is less unbalanced than we say but why do you think we see the same killers at high ranks.
I would like to see clown at high ranks for example.
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So thanks to that we can tell there is even more full soloQ games that what i expected (i guess i was misslead by chart name)
but thats even better, so now killers that were talking about 12,5% of games are 4x soloQ, whats your opinion Kek
thanks for fast reply @Peanits , and i have 1 more question, some time ago i heard(or at least i think i heard that) in your stats DC isnt equal to Death, am i right? in that case some killers can have lower killer % than they should have, (and im not sure how DC is counted in escaping so i wont assume anything)
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@NuclearBurrito I love math.
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It's worth pointing out that on consoles it's trivially easy to party up with people you didn't queue with. I'll solo queue periodically if my team isn't on and i get party invites from the randoms in my lobby all the time. Bam, now we have a swf group that the system can't track accurately.
Peanits was pretty clear about not drawing conclusions based on these facts, it's good to see people disregarding that to fit their narrative.
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Just wanted to point out I never divided by 4.
I cubed the odds.
Those things may happen to be equal in the case of 50% (since 1/2*1/2 = 1/4) but the methodology is different.
And I wouldn't do that with a 4 man since once you establish that there is a 4 man you're done and any additional modifiers are double counting. Hence why it was to the power of 3 and not 4 for my initial.
Thought I would like to point out that 0.5^4 = 6.25% (stats show 6.22%) which is almost exactly the 4 man odds which means the number of 4 man games are exactly what we would expect given a random distribution of 50% solo's and 50% SWF without meaningfully distinguishing.
Same for 3 mans. 0.5^3 = 12.5% (stats show 11.95%) and 2 mans. 0.5^2 = 25% (stats show 28.62%)
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Also % of solo's >= % of solo only lobby's
If 100% of the solo's were not playing with SWF then that would mean that there are about 50% of solo lobby's (since SWF and Solo's are both 50/50 that means in order for them to be completely separate they would need to have as many lobby's to themselves)
Even if every 2 man lobby was together, since they are each a % of the total player base that means 2 solo's is statistically equivalent to a 4 man for these purpose.
However we KNOW that not all solo's are in the same lobby. Every 3 man game has exactly 1 solo in it, thus the % of solo only lobby's is less than the % of solo's.
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Did you see the avrage survival rate of rank 1 survivors is above 80% ? And the avrage rank 1 survivor is bad.
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are you sure we read same thing? Community Manager told, those numbers are % of lobbys not % of players !!!! so over 50% games doesnt have SINGLE SWF inside, and as well you didnt read anything i wrote about 43% (even when you include dividing soloQ survs for 3men and some 2men) so pls
ofc you can tell % of soloQ>%of soloQ only lobbys BUT ON THAT CHART YOU HAVE ONLY FULL SOLOQ LOBBYS ...
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@Galklife That's not how it works. 3-man SWF must necessarily be accompanied by one solo survivor. This means that for every 3-man SWF lobby there's one solo survivor, meaning that the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE number of lobbies containing just solo survivors is roughly 40%.
Furthermore, assuming the game doesn't discriminate between 2-man SWF and two solo survivors when it comes to queues, this means that roughly half of each group will be paired together. Since 28,62% of all lobbies have 2-man SWF, this means about 14% of all lobbies will be 2-man SWF+2-man SWF, with the other 14% being 2-man SWF+solo, which brings the total number of SOLO ONLY lobbies down to 25%, give or take.
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@Orion youre so wrong i dont know how to start
as 1st lets assume that chart is showing players not ready lobbys do you know if there is 11,5% of players in 3men that mean 1/3 of that number is needed to fill lobby which is ~4% (i know less but w/e) then about your math with 2men swf again for you 14%+14% and then add another 14% = 28% your math is great 42%=28% grades skyrocketing
youre mixing 2 ways of thinking about it and because of that youre messing everything,
then about 2nd way DEV told its about FULL LOBBY not about soloQ players, so in those 53% of FULL SOLOQ players are NOT counted those that are playing with 3men or 2men SWF, READING isnt hard, but maybe thats how killer mains find their problems, just dont know how to understand what you read then you will find all your problems, dude use eyes to read and brain to analyse what you just read because atm you have problem with it
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Most SWF on PS4 end up breaking up because of the 40 minute queue times.
Everyone ends up playing solo anyway so that statistic is misleading.
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It's been explained a couple times, but the short version is:
- This data is from a time when it was hard to pip as survivor.
- If you escaped, you were more likely to pip.
- If you died, you were more likely to depip.
- It used your rank after the match, so if you died and deranked, it would count as a rank 2 death, not a rank 1 death.
- It was very hard to die and maintain rank 1 at the time.
Combine all that an the survival rate appears very high. I got a more accurate statistic from around a week after this morning. It's a lot closer to 43%.
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@Orion Yet, it is more often the case that there are not enough survivors and too many killers, thus creating long que times for killers. Sooner or later, both "mains" will have to admit that if they want a healthy game, it needs to be balanced around enjoyment of play, not winning and losing. Dying as a survivor can be fun, if the game itself was fun. I've had matches as killer where I had a blast, got a ton of bp, and 3 survivors escaped.
At some point, it has to stop being about killing and surviving and more about quality of game play. It does not help that this is such a toxic community and the game all but encourages toxic play styles.
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@Warlock_2020 Wrong. At least on PC, it has almost always been the case that survivor queues are long and killer queues are short, if there's a disruption in the queues. Exceptions include the period after a rank reset and certain events.
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If the data is true and not tampered with... I think we all need to chill out about SWF stuff. It's still annoying, but even I think it is required for this game.
It's healthy for the game in the sense or friends playing with each other etc...
ANd it is an advantage, but not like we all think.
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I can guarantee that it was not tampered with, although as mentioned in the data post, these are very vague statistics. They do not show how it might effect survival rate at specific ranks, for example. I would not recommend making any conclusions based on them alone.
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Valid stats but inconclusive.
It's a start.
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@Orion I don't know what you are talking about. I only play on PC and my killer times constantly get extended, while my survivor times are almost always instant. The Chinese New Year event is the only time where survivor times got extended, whereas every time I turn around, such as this Blood hunt, the killer que times are 5-10 minutes or more.
Survivor shortages are always an issue for red ranks and sometimes even purple and yellow ranks. Quite frankly, I'm tired of waiting 10+ minutes per match as a killer at rank 8-10. We lose more survivor mains, and those times increase.
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Even your "To keep it simple" doesn't seem simple. What people are trying to figure out is what percentage of lobbies are full solo vs how many have any form or SWF. Your 32.48%o 46.79% of all matches include some sort of SWF depending on how two man groups are matched doesn't make sense as if they consist of two solos and a two man or two two mans they still contain an SWF.
So to make it simple, in the chart and let's just take the PC number, does the roughly 54% for solo mean the 54% of the lobbies only contained solo players?
If so, then you can conclude that 46% of all lobbies contained an SWF of some form and the make up of two man lobbies is irrelevant.
Also, I don't understand the point of putting stats out and then saying you cant draw any conclusions from them. What is the point? It feels like BHVR is afraid to put out any meaningful stats of any kind for players to create solid suggestions to help make the game feel more balanced.
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