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My 39 Perk Predictions
Howdy folks!
With BHVR teasing the perks that are about to get adjusted in an upcoming patch, I figured I'd throw out a mix of predictiony guesses as to what I think might change! I've listed whether I think the perk will be buffed, nerfed, or 'reworked' as well as bullet points with ideas for what might be adjusted, ranging from exact mechanics to just vague suggestions.
Tinkerer: Nerf
As the linchpin for the BBQ/Tinkerer/Pop/Ruin combo, Tinkerer probably needs to give the killer less opportunity for getting repeat value out of the perk for protecting the same generator.
* Only triggers once per generator (like Merciless Storm)
* Alternatively, raise the threshold for triggering up to 80%
Barbecue and Chili: Nerf-ish
I assume the perk changes are being made with the bloodweb grind changes in mind, so the famous BP bonus will probably be going away. People will now only pick this for info, which may not fit into as many builds as before.
* No longer offers bonus BP for stacks
* Stacks now cause the range that auras are revealed after hooking to shrink from base 40m to 48m/44m/40m/36m
Borrowed Time: Rework
I assume the base game changes will make this perk effect redundant. The new effect will be thematic but otherwise unrecognizable from the current perk.
Botany Knowledge: Rework
This perk has become kind of plain and uninteresting even in competition with other heal perks. It could use some personality.
* Cleansing a dull totem grants a stacking 11% bonus to healing speeds and an additional 120 second buff that increases healing speeds by an additional 22%.
Calm Spirit: Rework
I have no idea what they'd change here, but it's clear that evading crows is not useful enough to merit a perk slot.
* Whatever the change will be, the survivor will probably scream when hooked even while using this perk since it provides valuable audio info to the entire map.
Corrupt Intervention: Rework
I assume the base game changes will make this perk effect redundant. The new effect will be thematic but otherwise unrecognizable from the current perk.
Coulrophobia: Buff
This perk is meant to oppress healing speeds, but it doesn't offer much feedback.
* In addition to its normal effects, survivors now scream if they interrupt a heal while within the killer's terror radius.
Dark Devotion: Rework
I think BHVR has seen the trend of eliminating perks that only interact with the obsession as a good thing.
* No longer requires striking the obsession to activate. Can activate when hitting any survivor with m1.
* Now comes with a debilitating 120s cooldown
* Survivors probably will also see a dark devotion status icon when they have the terror radius, like Dissolution.
Dark Sense: Buff / Rework
I have no clue. It's a relatively low-value info perk, so it'll probably get some personality to make it have more of a specialist role, still involving info + generators.
Dead Hard: Rework
I have no clue, but mainly because BHVR has said a lot of speculative things about what they don't like about this perk right now. Ultimately I believe it comes down to its availability as a brief invulnerability + a perk that can be used for distance at critical moments, to functionally reset a chase at a palette or vault.
* Whatever changes, it'll probably be dramatic to the point that what it currently enables in game is removed entirely from chases.
Decisive Strike: Nerf
Probably going to be seen as very unwelcome, buuuuut
* Now deactivates when interacting with killer objects and the exit gate.
* Good luck!
Deja Vu: Buff / Rework
I have no clue. It's a really niche info perk that could legitimately be made basekit and still nobody would really think much about it. It'll probably be turned into something a bit more stylish.
Distortion: Buff
This perk has a good foundation, but is dependent on the killer's build and isn't allowed to shine in the cases when it can actually generate good value. It'll probably receive more freedoms in that regard.
* Now start the trial with 8 tokens
* Alternatively, gain an additional token each time a generator is completed.
Eruption: Buff
While few people seem to notice, Eruption is the killer equivalent of flash bang & blast mine. It's issue despite being a gen regression perk is that its peers do a much better job at gen control without requiring the killer to do a counter-intuitive amount of gen-kicking. Giving it some extra personality (that doesn't push it into replacing the outgoing gen control meta) might be the spark it needs to make blowing up survivors a lot more fun.
* You now see the auras of survivors incapacitated by eruption for the full 12/14/16 seconds.
* Alternatively, survivors are also blinded when eruption goes off - but only for the standard blindness duration (as though they looked at a flash bang, not the full 16 second incapacitation duration)
Scourge Hook: Gift of Pain: Buff
Despite being the debut scourge hook, gift of pain seems to fall behind its companions. On paper, it's supposed to cost the survivors more time to recover from being unhooked and provide the killer with extra value in the form of slowdown while they are chasing other survivors, but survivors who are content to remain injured sidestep this effect entirely.
* The heal/repair speed penalty applies from the moment the survivor is unhooked, rather than from when they are healed.
Hope: Buff
Good luck, speed freaks!
* Removed duration.
Iron Will: Nerf
The turf war between Iron Will and Stridor continues.
* Grunts of pain now reduced by 25%/50%/75%
Jolt/Surge: Rework
In the ongoing purge of gen control perks, Jolt is the premier gen-control perk of m1 killers thanks to its ease of use. It reaches its most oppressive when the killer is in a situation where they do not need to leave the area and can score multiple activations of the perk on the same generators despite the cooldown. The perk is also heavily lopsided in favor of smaller, multi-floor maps like The Game and Midwich.
* No longer affects all generators in a 32m radius, instead affects the top 1/2/3 generators on the map.
* Cooldown increased to 100 seconds.
Knockout: Buff
Knockout, in theory, is great at disrupting coordinated survivors from rushing to their fallen teammate's aid, as well as keeping the downed survivor from sneaking over to a palette. In practice, SWF comms make this perk pretty easy to work around and skilled survivors typically make it to the palette before going down anyway. In it's current state, it's a pubstomp perk.
* Somehow becomes a problem for SWF in a manner that is equitable for solo queue.
Lethal Pursuer: Rework
Personally I think this perk is perfect and I love to run it in my comfort builds, but if BHVR says it needs something then I'm sure to welcome it. ...So long as it's actually a buff and not a nerf or rework. Who's to say? If I were forced to guess, I'd predict BHVR might adjust it so that it stops being the bane of survivors who are afk for the first 15 seconds of a match.
* Lethal Pursuer now activates for 7/8/9 seconds beginning at the moment a survivor interacts with a generator, rather than at the start of the trial. The generator generates a loud noise notification.
Lightweight: Buff
I have no clue what changes here, but it may be just making it more potent.
* Scratch marks now begin to fade 2/3/4 seconds sooner.
Lucky Break: Buff
BHVR probably recognizes that they overshot and then undershot the duration for making this perk valuable but not overpowered. 90 seconds might be the happy medium.
* Maximum duration increased to 60/75/90 seconds.
Monstrous Shrine: Rework
This perk can now go from being overly situational to overly situational, but in a modern way
* Now Scourge Hook: Monstrous Shrine
* Turns basement hooks into scourge hooks in addition to a couple other minor effects
Hex: No One Escapes Death: Nerf
No one escapes nerfs.
* Survivors now get alerted to the existence of this hex when all generators are complete, rather than the first time someone gets hit.
No One Left Behind: Buff
We all know the true endgame starts when the last gen is complete, not when the gates open.
* Now activates once all generators are complete
Overzealous: Buff
Many people crunching the math on this perk decided it was too inefficient at refunding time spent on breaking totems. Maybe it'll be bumped up a tad?
* Additional effect: If the totem is a hex totem, gain an additional 6% repair speed for 40 seconds. This timer only depletes while working on generators, but the bank of time is lost if you are injured.
Off the Record: Buff
This perk shares effects with Distortion and Iron Will, and will probably be modified to reflect the changes that both of these other perks get. I've adjusted it here to reflect my own predictions.
* Increased duration to 100/110/120 seconds
* Grunts of pain reduced by 75%
Overcharge: Buff
Like eruption, gen control perks that require kicking individual generators constantly aren't competitive with their peers. Also, skilled survivors have very little issue with these kinds of skill checks. I have no idea how it might be changed to keep it from being just a pub stomp perk, but here's my change that'd make it even more of a pub stomper:
* The difficult skill check is now a 5 second sequence of skill checks, like Merciless Storm.
* Each time a skill check is failed, the generator explodes, resulting in a progress loss of 1/2/3%
Scourge Hook: Pain Resonance: Nerf
RIP the #1 perk for killers who wanted to ignore gens and defend gens at the same time.
* Now applies to the generator with the least amount of non-zero progress.
* Alternatively, just reduces the regression from 15% to 10%
Pop Goes the Weasel: Rework
Hail to the king.
* Every time you hook a survivor, gain a stack.
* When you kick a generator, spend all stacks to cause the generator to immediately regress 5% per stack.
Pharmacy: Rework
This perk may be transformed into a rummage perk to behave more like Residual Manifest and Appraisal.
Hex: Ruin: Rework
I can't predict what's going to change here, but the key to Ruin's value is it's passive nature. A hex based gen regression perk will probably need to have more interactivity on the killer's part to justify the value it has now.
* The first time the killer hooks a survivor, Hex: Ruin manifests on an available dull totem and then activates for 30 seconds. All generators not being worked on begin to regress at 200% for the duration, but stop regressing once the duration ends or the hex is cleansed.
* Every time the killer hooks a survivor while the hex remains active causes the effect to occur for another 30 seconds.
Saboteur: Buff
Quality of Life update to make the perk more useful and to cause survivors rescuing teammates off hook less likely to accidentally put the perk on cooldown by attempting to heal and beginning a sabotage instead.
* Saboteur now only goes on cooldown after successfully sabotaging a hook.
Self-Care: Nerf-ish
This is probably going to be used to keep survivors from sandbagging themselves.
* Self-care deactivates for the remainder of the trial after the first time you heal yourself.
* Decreases the depletion rate of med-kits by 30%/40%/50%
Sole Survivor: Buff
No clue, maybe something more altruistic? It's another case of an info-denying perk seeing some attention, which is a clear trend.
Spine Chill: Nerf
You know it's coming. I mean, now you don't. But you get what I mean.
* No longer activates when the killer is undetectable.
Tenacity: Buff
This perk is a valuable fixture in specific anti-slugging builds, but is otherwise no very valuable on its own.
* Once you have reached maximum recovery, your crawl speed increases to 60%/80%/100%
Thanatophobia: Rework
The slowdown is too powerful on some killers who score easy injures but difficult downs. Coincidentally, those are the killers who always run this perk.
* While there is an injured, dying, or hooked survivor in the trial, this perk is active and begins counting down.
* Every 40 seconds, all injured or dying survivors scream, revealing their locations.
* If this perk becomes inactive, the timer pauses (as opposed to resets)
We're Gonna Live Forever: Rework
If BBQ goes, so too does WGLF
* No longer offers bonus BP for stacks
* Stacks now increase recovery speed by 25%/50%/75% and if you have the maximum stacks, you can pick yourself up off the ground once per trial (like Unbreakable).
=== Summary ===
* Lots of base perks are getting attention, likely buffs, to make them more modern and also competitive with DLC perks
* None of Huntresses' teachables are getting touched, which is a shame because I love Territorial Imperative and Lullaby and they're both real real bad!
* Lots of gen regression & control perks are probably getting nerfed
* Lots of perks that enable stealth & avoidance are probably getting buffed
* There's a significant mix of attention on raising a floor to replace the falling ceiling here
So, what do you think? I'll be excited to check this list out and compare it against what gets announced!
Comments
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I have similar predictions about them.
For the DH I was thinking it might give you some sort of immunity against just special attacks without getting the distance, so that stronger/ranged killers are still counterable with it and the M1 killers won't be as annoyed.
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I've considered the same for Dead Hard, though I think I keep coming back to the idea that Dead Hard's usage went from 3rd to 1st most popular in the game after they fixed the issue with hit recognition causing Dead Hard to be unreliable based on ping, and I don't have it in front of me but I recall BHVR describing Dead Hard's narrow usage window as a frustration in the design that I assume they intend to change.
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If Spine Chill doesnt get that nerf stealth killers will never be viable. I mean, Sadako never will be in her current state, but current Spine Chill doesnt help.
Also, Spine Chill removes the horror from the game. Stealth killers need to be scary!
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As interesting as your proposal are, I do not think these predictions are exactly what the top 40 perks uses perks are, in fact you also miss alot of exhaustion Perks too.
Remember, the Devs are working on Rework/overhauling of top 40 used perks in high MMR level games. Some of these perks you added are too weak or useless to be widely used in high MMR, like..... Off the Record for example; yet Iron Will is mostly like used and not mention at all in your list.
If only the Devs can gives a complete list of perks that will be changed; it would very appreciate to know what perks will be changed, so that we can do a proper prediction.
Also, some of these perks are fine; it just other perks that it tries to counter is not effective enough. For example, Spies in the shadow would have been the perfect perk to be counter by Calm Spirit; if only crows in general are very strong and it pressure Survivors to be mindful of crows and worry about Spies in the shadow more; by running Calm Spirit more.
My issues with perk balance in general is...
1.) Most perks are cannibalize other perks to stand out; yet do not make it a decent perk; like Off The Record vs. Iron Will and Lucky Break.
2.) The Meta perks for either side either involves Gen Regression, Slowdown, bit of Endgame for killers; and for Survivor; second chances perks that can be exhaustion, Healing, or even killer detection/ team communication perks (Spine Chill/Kindred). Also, Survivors relie on 2nd chances perks to counter Camping and Tunneling killers too; which is more common now because of MMR.
3.) MMR incentives Kills and Escapes now; instead of what I prefer Hooks and Team Contributions (Distraction the killer, fixing gens/powering exit gates, cleansing Hex totems, going for saves/hook trade, etc.). Because of that, it more incentives to Gen Rush and escape but more incentives to camp/tunnel as it the most effective (yet toxic) way to win for kills. The meta perks are there to maximize success for those win conditions; so these perks need nerfs/complete overhauls; while changing everything about the match making or the base game in general.
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While the list might not be exhaustive, I pulled the list of perks (and the image at the top) from BHVR's tweet earlier today: https://twitter.com/DeadByBHVR/status/1537812402854674432
The impression I get is that these are the 39 we're seeing change - and itll be a mix of buffs, nerfs, and reworks - not all nerfs!
That said, I agree with much of what you bring up in terms of the challenges involved in balancing perks! It's especially daunting when the nature of the game itself has transformed over so many years, so it makes sense to me why we're seeing a lot of the original perks getting attention in a bid to make them more relevant to the way the game is played now.
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I have no idea how accurate your guess are, but I have to say that I LOVE your guess for a Coulrophobia change. I'd be so happy if that was actually the change.
If a lot of these are pretty accurate, I don't actually see the meta shifting much. For instance, right now no one runs Off The Record because Decisive Strike exists. If your guesses were close, this would still be the case. I'm hoping Off The Record gets at least partially reworked.
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I feel very deeply that Coulrophobia should be a very funny perk (and in general, that the 'phobia' perks make a lot of sense to be tied into forcing the survivors to scream)
As for the meta-impact, I think I agree with you. I've seen some other people's perk change predictions that seemed just WAY OFF THE CHAIN to the extent that it's functionally just inventing 20+ brand new perks and calling it a day. I've done a few 'this is a new perk' designs, but I'm assuming that the biggest meta shifts will come from
* Unannounced base game changes (that will apparently puncture interest in current killer incentives tied to camping, tunneling, and stacking gen control) - I omitted changes to Borrowed Time and Corrupt Intervention because, to the best of my design knowledge, these changes would have to reshape the killer's early game experience & the high risk involved in unhooking in the killer's presence.
* Literally just Dead Hard getting fundamentally removed from the game. People have dealt with it for so long now that we've forgotten what old chases are like - and they're a lot shorter on average.
Also at the end of the day I expect that the game is still gonna pretty much feel like DBD. A meta shift might change how it's played, but probably won't change the objectives - if you catch my drift.
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Most of these are absolute nonsense.
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Which do you dislike? 👀
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Hey!!!
Now that we have the update: https://forum.deadbydaylight.com/en/kb/articles/337
Let's see how many I got right?
Tinkerer: Correct!
Barbecue and Chili: Correct!
Hope: Correct! Wow!
Iron Will: Correct!
Lightweight: Correct-ish! I undershot the amount the value would be increased, but I got it right that it'd be improved!
Monstrous Shrine: Correct!
No One Left Behind: Correct!
Overzealous: Correct-ish! I got the double effectiveness for cleansing a hex perk right, but it's just indefinite (Until you get hit)
We're Gonna Live Forever: Correct!
9 out of 39 seems like a really wild success rate. BHVR, let me know if you're hiring designers 😄
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