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100 SoloQ matches later. Match outcomes.
FIRST OF ALL: I have pretty(?) graphs instead of a TL;DR! Just keep on scrolling😄
There are so many statements and claims floating around and subjective perception is sometimes really far from reality, so I figured: why not keep track of 100 SoloQ matches? --- In the mean time some other people have done similar things so I guess I'm a little late to the party - but hey, maybe there's something new in here.
CONTEXT (feel free to skip)
Some info on me for context may also be useful since it has quite the impact on results. Or so I've heard. So here goes: I play dbd since December 2021 and started this experiment just shy of 1k hours of which one half is survivor and one half is everything else. My, safe for BT meta-free, build pre-update was BT + Leader + Botany/We'll make it + some perk I felt like. No clue where my MMR is at but pre-Update my SoloQ escape rate was probably somewhere around 40%. SWF escape rate for me personally was somewhere between 50% and 60%. I'm not a particularly good survivor but I'm not a complete potato either. I play for fun and pretty much refuse to sweat - though I won't throw just because I don't like a killer or a map or loadout or whatever either.
The matches were between the 23rd of July and 4th of August. Most games were played between afternoon and late night (~15:00-02:00). I'm on Frankfurt servers [EU servers]. My build wasn't the same throughout the whole thing but always a combination of the following (number of matches played with the perk in brackets): Sprint Burst (91), Lithe (9), Botany Knowledge (26), Leader (41), Tenacity (9), Wake Up! (51), Vigil (23), Windows of Opportunity (39), Borrowed Time (3), Self-Aware/Fixated (20), Kindred (40), Distortion (40) and Alert (8). I brought neither items nor offerings.
MATCHES AND OUTCOMES
My Escapes / Deaths and Overall Escapes
I escaped 37 matches which translates to a 37% escape rate. It certainly didn't feel that way. 5 times I escaped through the hatch, on three of those occasions the killer gave hatch on purpose. One time the killer DCd. Out of my 31 escapes through the gates it was 7x1E (four times the killer wanted me to open the exit gates and escape), 3x2E, 10x3E and 12x4E. The longest escape streak was four (this happened two times. I also escaped three times in a row two times).
I died 63 times which translates to a 63% death rate. Two times I was the only one who died. The longest "death streak" was eight deaths in a row. Except for one given hatch and one match with multiple DCs they were all 4K with two or more gens left. Definitely one of the more frustrating and discouraging experiences.
In total 12 matches were a 4E (one 3E+H included). 13 matches were a 3E (one 2E+H included). 5 matches were 2E. In total 16 survivors escaped through the hatch, in 14 matches they were the only survivor to escape. 12 matches were 1E through gates. In 42 matches no one escaped (=4K). There was also one match where three survivors DCd and one killer DCd, I count those matches as null.
DCs/Suicides
There were 2 suicides on hook (though a number of players tried but got taken off the hook before they could actually kill themselves but since it's hard to tell if it's a genuine kobe attempt or someone actually trying to kill themselves I didn't count any of that). There were a total of 12 DCs in a total of ten matches. One DC was a killer, one match had three survivors DC. Looking at complaints of all kinds of people that was fewer DCs than expected.
Generators
A total of 364 gens got completed which means 3.64 gens got completed on average. To my surprise there were only five matches that ended with zero gens completed. Even more surprising was that in 41 matches all gens got somehow completed. It certainly didn't feel that way. That being said, there were a number of occasions where completing the last gen was the last thing the (next to) last survivor did before dying moments later. It may be an act of defiance at this point 😂
I was also curious what the final match results were when all five gens got done - since they they did all get done quite often.
And while I was at it I also looked at how many gens got done when the final result was a 4K. In total 127 gens got done in matches that turned out to be a 4K, which means on average 3.02 gens got done in these matches. Some may go "hold on a sec, there were five matches that had zero gen progress!" - which is true. One is the triple DC which was not counted as a 4K but null. And on the other occasion someone actually managed to open the gate and escape after the killer had closed hatch.
Match Duration
Playing those 100 SoloQ matches took 1295 minutes - that's a little over 21hrs 30min - of pure match time. On average a complete match was 12 minutes and 57 seconds. The shortest match was 5 minutes (against Nurse. Who would've guessed...) and the longest was a whopping 28 minutes (against a Nemo. Iirc it was a three gen followed by the last two survs crouching around edge map for over five minutes). Most matches were pretty spot on the average and lasted 13 minutes, give or take.
Pipping & Match Points
I pipped in 49 matches and depipped in 13. Overall I gained 41 pips. (During the first ten or so matches I was still Gold Grade.) The depips felt like a punch to the gut though; e.g. when the three others DCd, there was some serious camping/tunneling going on or that 4K-in-five-min Nurse match. On pretty much all the occasions I depipped it was out of my control.
On average I got ~18.5k points in the match result screen. The lowest score was 3900 in that 4K-in-five-min Nurse match. The highest score I got was 31037. 13 matches were below 10k points. 13 matches were above 10k and below 15k points. 32 matches were above 15k and below 20k points. 22 matches were above 20k points and below 25k points. 18 matches were above 25k points and below 30k points. Two matches were above 30k points.
Killers
The top most frequently faced killers were Nurse, Huntress, Blight, Legion and Wraith. I didn't face a single Twins or Hag and I only faced a single Plague, Billy and Slinger. Also just a single Clown but that might be due to Clown being disabled during almost all days I played.
MY CONCLUSIONS SO FAR
My escape rate was higher than I thought it was - although it certainly didn't feel that way. Same goes for the average number of gens being completed being surprisingly high. And I also got more points on average than I would have guessed (I'd have said about 15k which is 3k less than it actually is). So, how come that matches still feel so, so, so much worse/unfun/frustrating/you name it than the numbers alone would suggest?
I don't have a definite answer but I have two guesses:
a) After losing a lot you eventually go up against killers that are way below you level and you escape for a couple of matches - but even though these matches are escapes they don't feel good. Because it feels a little like going up against the Trapper-bot in the Tutorial. When you're at a point where you're stuck with 1-2 team mates per match that crouch around, not touching anything or anyone until they know the killer is on the other side of the map and still manage to escape that says all anyone needs to know about the killer you go against and about how rewarding it feels to "win" an interaction (be that looping, escaping chase, throwing them off your trail, mind games or whatever).
b) The all-or-nothing nature in terms of outcomes. If I were to exclude the occasions where a killer made it a point to let the last survivor escape the 4K rate would be way over 50%. I alone have been given hatch or gate seven times - and while I didn't keep track of it for the others there were other survivors who did get hatch/gate because the killer wanted them to (literally carrying them there). The pretty much non-existent 2k also speaks volumes about how all-or-nothing matches are. Not to mention the massive snow-balling potential in SoloQ due to lack of basic communication. --- And considering the times where it was a 4E and then a last-second NOED-hit happened, or one unlucky one got basement camped at the end, the same is true for the survivor side. It's very stomp or be stomped - and as SoloQ you get stomped way more often than you stomp. And to me, personally, neither stomping nor getting stomped is fun.
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If anyone is curious about anything feel free to comment. - Also if there's something you wonder about, feel free to ask - maybe I have the numbers you're looking for.
There's also a part two coming at some point that's all about which loadouts my fellow survivors and the killers brought - but that would make this post explode and will also take some time so that's gonna be a while. Spoiler: Self Care is still a thing. And yes, Killers do stack slowdown a lot.
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Change-Log:
08.08.22 - Corrected two mistakes I found; I missed to record one DC and one generator (2E at 4 gens seems quite impossible), so I corrected those two bits. I also added the "4K gen progress" bit and "5 gen outcomes" bit to this overview post.
Comments
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Looking at statistics like this is awesome. Was surprised to see huntress being the 2nd most killer though? Just interesting. Really curious to seeing survivor build vs killer build popularity. It feels like a new meta is already back in place game to game.
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No it’s not. Killers still run slowdown. Survivors still ru anti tunnel perks and 1 exhaustion. Same meta just different perks
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With all Nurses, Blights and Huntresses, you must be at a fairly high MMR.
I literally never see Nurse, well maybe 1 out of 100 games. My games are also much more event than yours. I escape about 60-70% of the time, though half the time as the last survivor or via the hatch.
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Love what you did here, the only thing I would bring up as a way to improve this is to have more than 1 person doing this and comparing results using the same parameters. Everyone has their own play styles and weakness' and strengths which would definitely affect these stats.
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Thank you - but tbh I have a hard time believing I'm any higher than median in terms of MMR. For Nurse and Huntress it's hard to tell since they are free killers so they are at least tried by many people (+Rituals) and it's probably more about the add-ons rather than the killer itself that is an indicator of MMR. Not sure if I remember correctly but the Huntresses had 'I'm meaning business' skins & I remember seeing speed add-ons and Infantry Belts for at least a number of them. The Nurses were all over the place; some with Plaid Flanell (the brown one that lets you see where you blink) or Wooden Horse (Brown for less missed blink attacks) and some with the infamous range/recharge addons. Same goes for the Blights; some were I assume just doing the current tome (no/few/bad perks/add ons) and some were hard sweating.
When I look into the loadouts I'll probably also do a break down by Killer and Perks/Add-ons. Cause "Basekit Nurse" is really a different creature than "Omega Blink Nurse with Starstruck and aura reading".
😏Do I see a volunteer? ^^
joking aside, while I agree it would be awesome if a few other people did it... I do 10/10 not recommend doing it. While the matches themselves took 21.5 hours that time doesn't account for writing down the outcomes and loadouts, loading screens and matchmaking. The actual time it took was probably closer to 40 hoursBut ye, you're completely right. - Even though these are 100 matches and it looks very statistic-y it's still only "statistically" relevant as far as I'm concerned. For everyone else it's still just more of a case study / anecdotal evidence.
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Did you keep the end game screen for all of these? I'd like to see them to see what kind of perks everyone was running etc
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I think I might try doing something like this in swf, so we can compare relative power levels of solo and swf with the power statistics
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I didn't keep the endgame screens. Did attempt it but I kept forgetting to save the screenshots and only later remembered I could just let steam do the collecting by just pressing F12. At that point it was too late though 🙈 - But I did keep a record of everything except teamie & killer Match-points. Put all teamie perks, items+add-ons, all killer perks and add-ons, all offerings* and all prestige levels (idk why) into an excel sheet.
I will do a breakdown of the loadouts once I have some time on my hands and feel like organising excel spreadsheets. It might take a while tho. 😬(I can post a screenshot of that part of the excel sheet here if you're interested - even though I used abbreviations at times most things should not need an explanation)
*another blunder was that I forgot there are personal and shared +25% all category BP so those are lumped together now.
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That would be super interesting to compare o: - Do you have a fixed swf group? (I decided against keeping track of swf because I play with very different people at very different skill levels - several-k-hours-comp(?)-players as well as just-installed-the-game-yesterday people - and while there are people I play with more frequently I don't have a fixed group. Given all that my swf matches are too all over the place to be useful, I think.)
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I just have to say, this is really awesome what you did here. Love seeing stats and data. Wish we saw more, instead of people complaining about the state of the game. This stuff right here gives authenticity to claims being made and less drama all around. Thank you for sharing and hopefully more will be willing to share and contribute.
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same here. I would get a group of four players that are interested in the experiment, then only track games with all four players present
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I apologize for riling everyone up with reality. Let's hope we can find more concrete information from your analysis.
Post edited by kisfenkin on0 -
Out of curiosity:
You mentioned that you were giving the hatch 7 times and were not sure exactly how many times another member of the survivor team was given the hatch, but there were enough for you to remember it happening several times.
At any point in these hundred games, did ANY survivor intentionally give themselves up to the killer in the end game, so that the other side could get one single kill? Can you recall even a single instance where that was the case?
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I always give Hatch as killer as the ingame equivalent of a handshake. The game is over at that point. It's already clear who won and there is nothing being gained from the 4k. At least on my end. There's nothing malicious about it as far as I'm concerned. I guess opinions on that can vary though.
And you don't find any info on farming - and also not on camping or tunneling or throwing - because it's usually hard to tell from a SoloQ surv perspective so any information would be unrealiable. There was one match that was outright farming: A blight who just wanted to do their tome (though, they did play the first few minutes very seriously... but also very badly and I guess they just gave up). There were a couple occasions where it looked to me like the killer hard camped/tunneled to make it a 3v1 and then switched gears to maximise BP gain and there were also occasions where there were exit gates shenanigans where everyone just memed around and got some stuff for challenges/rituals (e.g. blinds, Trapper's traps and stuff like that).
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If you have suddenly gained a conscious because you realized I am personally referring to the way YOU play, get over it. I don't care why you are doing it. Nobody does. Just keep in mind that you are benefiting yourself more than the survivor you let go. If that sits okay with your conscious to manipulate the game this way then still, nobody cares.
Please stop derailing this thread because I want to see what else can be figured out.
Post edited by kisfenkin on0 -
I always love reading stats like these. Good job. Not surprised you managed not to get a single Twins or Hag. They are by far the rarest killers I see.
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That is an excellent question and I didn't take notes on that one. Now, while I do remember those occasions happening during that time, I don't know if they were during my SoloQ matches or other matches. - Would have been very interesting to keep track of, in hindsight.
But my guess is: Probably not. Based on my own experience: even after a killer hardly got any hooks I was usually just glad it wasn't another death on whatever death streak I was on at the time.
Though I'm also not sure if you can really compare "given escapes" to "given kills". A killer has four chances per match to win, if they get three out of four they have won. - A survivor on the other hand has only one chance to win. By letting one survivor escape the killer doesn't actually lose anything that match, whereas a survivor letting themselves be killed is losing everything that match.
In terms of "nice gestures" I think what survivors more often do is the "com, com. Hit & down out the exit gate" - which seems to be a common theme across the board.
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Fair enough. That was my suspicion, but it's good to get some corroboration. I have had one single survivor step away from the exit gate and insist that I hook them after a hilariously one-sided match. One single survivor in the course of over two years now. I don't have a figure for the number of hatch escapes I gave after a one-sided killer game, but if I were to guess it would be maybe a touch under a hundred?
The "waiting to at least give the killer a hit at the gates" does happen, but the FAR more common situation is "wait by the gates, and when the killer swings, they just step out or dead hard out." Which takes what could've been a nice gesture and turns it into something pretty rude.
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Hatch is neutral in terms of MMR. - And I won't comment on it any further because it is besides the point of this thread. (Not saying there is no argument to be made or it isn't a topic worth a discussion. Quite the contrary. - But this is not the right place for that.)
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I had survivors insisting to die - one way or the other, and if need be to egc - mostly when playing solely for the memes e.g. as Zoom-Billy (trying to make laps around the maps with a single chainsaw-rush between chases/until I stumble into a surv. - Record: three times around big boat on swamp), T-Bag-chase-Ghostie, Trick Shot Huntress or Boop-Pig. Those are also the ones where I'm most likely to announce mid-match that I gonna die for that killer if they want it or not 😂
I also agree on the exit gate hits sometimes (often?) just being about rubbing it in / adding insult to injury. But I think I've gotten somewhat better at identifying those kinds of survivors and I just stay away from gates when I suspect that's what they're up to.
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If you have suddenly gained a conscious because you realized I am personally referring to the way YOU play, get over it. I don't care why you are doing it. Nobody does. Just keep in mind that you are benefiting yourself more than the survivor you let go. If that sits okay with your conscious to manipulate the game this way then still, nobody cares.
Please stop derailing this thread because I want to see what else can be figured out.
Post edited by kisfenkin on0 -
Yes I can do this with your blessing, I don't like stealing others thunder without asking them 1st. I will play 100 games in solo queue with the same build and attempting to "win" to the best of my ability for the entire match. Its probably going to take awhile as I am going to create some charts and track everything I can about the games. Any suggestions or helpful hints as someone that has already done it?
I already have a pretty good idea how this will turn out, I tend to play very altruistic which doesn't tend to work out well for my survival odds.
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Sure, absolutely do go ahead ^-^
The only thing I would've done differently is probably have taken screenshots via Steam of all the match result screens - just to be on the safe side. - Also, since I was asked about it before and didn't have a very good answer maybe make a note on how many survivors insisted on being killed despite being able to walk out the exit gates.
Tips in general... it's better to have two screens; one with the match results and one with the excel sheet so you don't have to memorise the loadouts to copy them over. For successful suicides on hook I put it in the "DC" column but in square brackets [ ] and still counted it as a kill, while for DCs I didn't. Just to be able to tell the two apart. A killer DC was K. I think that's about it. It's really straightforward just copying stuff over for the most part xD .... Lemme send you a screenshot of the things I kept track of.
The color coding really helped to stay in the right column. - Abbreviations also really helped (though over time I became a little more efficient ... which is also one reason why I have to clean up the data in earlier matches so esp. the shorthands for item-add-ons match up and become search-able. (one note on the hooks: this was more about counting how many unhooks there could be performed during the match (so the max was 8) - I did it like that on purpose but I don't remember why, so I didn't include it here in the overview either. There's so many things to count and compare when it comes to hooks though, so if you want to knock yourself out; I'd be very interested to find out more about it xD)
Yeah, I mean. Do feel free to adjust and adapt stuff as you see fit ^-^
... Though I would stay away from trying to keep track of camping, tunneling, farming and stuff like that because it's really hard to evaluate while playing a match and also definitions tend to vary - one exception being super obvious farming with everyone being there or the prototypical face camping Bubba or the likes.
(I also feel called out on the being altruistic thing - the times I thought to myself "never again in SoloQ!" and one match later I do it again 🙈)
(Edit: I also just notice that right in the first match I apparently lost a gen. - I probably died at four gens and hadn't sorted everything out yet. For the most part I just want to use this opportunity to point out that I'm human and this was just a fun project so there might be an error here and there. Most susceptible to these kinds of errors are gens, hooks and items/offerings being in the wrong column)
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This is pretty cool. My friends and I keep a tally when we play together to see who is escaping more and end game outcomes. Nothing to this degree. We also comically try to sandbag each other after gates are opened. So far nobody has actually succeeded but there are lots of screams and laughter.
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You seriously need to relax before you have an aneurysm or something.
1) You said in your earlier post that giving the survivor hatch raises their MMR which is not the case. This is what he meant by hatch being neutral.
2) If a match ends with 3 generators left to complete and 3E + hatch they can obviously tell that. This is effectively a 4k as far as stats are concerned.
3) "When I did this study, I found that killers are all farming, not trying or new." Source: Trust me bro.
I give the last person hatch if I think they did a lot more than the rest of their team or if I think their team really screwed over the one person who was actually trying. People do in fact give survivors hatch to be nice.
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So, since it has been a common theme that "no gens get done anymore" I figured I could take a little closer look at the gens. Just aside from how many gens got completed overall. I was interested in two things: What was the final outcome when all five gens got completed? That all five got compelted happened quite frequently, after all. You would assume a lot of times there are pretty decent survival chances if all gens get done - and that is also true. I interpret the rather high "1E" number as there being two survivors left and one got the last gen done while the other got chased. Sometimes they managed to get the gate open before the killer could get to them, sometimes they played for hatch.
And in line with the "no gens get done anymore" is also the "it's just getting stomped at five gens all the time". So I figured I look at that as well. To my surprise, actually, there were very few matches that not only had a 4K at 5 gens - but none whatsoever where only one gen got done. Even when getting pretty much stomped it seems to be possible to somehow finish two gens. Speaking from my own experience: It doesn't feel that way. Meaning that in terms of "how did I feel about this match" it makes little difference if it was a 4K at 5 gens or if a couple gens did get done. Once gens grind to halt and it becomes obvious this will turn into a 4K it all feels equally miserable. - To me, anyhow.
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Bro most of the time I give hatch because I really don't care about the 3 min of back and fourth between the gates. I won already, It's just boring to do that. Literally half the time I alt tab after the third kill.
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My experience is the same. I rarely see Nurse, Blight is an endangered species, Hag and Twins are basically extinct.
Im bad so my escape rate is more like 40-50%.
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Are you going to put together something about perk usage and success with certain perks, if that data is there?
I went back and edited my posts in a hope to stop derailing your thread. Sorry about that.
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Thanks ^-^ it's hard sometimes to stay on topic.
I did think about "success based on perk usage" - but I think there are too many unknowns in the data if you collect it as a survivor in SoloQ. You don't know the killer you're up against and you don't know what kind of teamies you get so you can never really know if it was the perks or something else that lead to the match outcome you got.
I think the best way to look at the question "in how far do perks influence the chances of winning the match" would be, on the survivor side, to go in with a swf where everyone is of equal skill level and has a fixed loadout for 100 matches. - And then compare the escape rates. Though even that comes with a number of limitations where it would be hard to tell if they are coincidence, if there's a correlation or if there's causation.
For killer it should be easier to see how specific loadouts affect kill rates though if you keep one loadout for 100 matches.
That being said. Once I get around to the loadout section of all this, I will probably have the one or another theory; perks aren't popular by chance. So while a perk being popular is not necessarily proof that something increases you escape/kill rates, it does certainly suggest people think it does.
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Lol. I had that happen once. Then he messaged me a sarcastic "you're welcome".
I was like, I didn't ask you for the kill. You could have left. Thanks I guess.
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This is nice because you played 100 matches but it's just not accurate when it's 1 person. You need multiple people on a different skill level. 100 people and 100 games per person would be way more accurate. I love the hard work and nice setup of graphs though.
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That is true. Which is why I never claimed it was an accurate representation of "The soloQ experience". Though it should be fairly accurate as far as I and my soloQ experience is concerned. As far as anyone else is concerned it's just anecdotal evidence / a case study.
(edit: In case you're referring to the subjective perception bit; that is in regards to how things actually happened and how we remember/perceive them. I, for one, remember matches as being much worse than they were according to the numbers.)
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You are looking at it from just your perspective, but what was the escape/kill rate for each game looking at your whole team? Like, you might have died, but did 2 of your teammates get out?
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That's the "outcomes: all matches" bit. That does not take into account whether I died or escaped but how many out of the four survivors escaped:
"In total 12 matches were a 4E (one 3E+H included). 13 matches were a 3E (one 2E+H included). 5 matches were 2E. In total 16 survivors escaped through the hatch, in 14 matches they were the only survivor to escape. 12 matches were 1E through gates. In 42 matches no one escaped (=4K). There was also one match where three survivors DCd and one killer DCd, I count those matches as null."
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Since WHEN does something like that happen?
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That's kind of my point.
These things tend to be very one-sided, and people tend to be far less altruistic when they've got a team on their side.
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By BHVR's own standards of 2K + 2E being a balanced match and a win for the killer, that accounts for above 70% of your 'all matches' pie chart. I would also say this largely matches the experiences I've been having, so I'd love to see some updated data from BHVR on kill rates which are, apparently, too low.
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In solo q I'm usually around 40-45% escape. WIth a good swf I escape about 75% of the time and this is considering in solo q I will just try to escape but in a swf I will trade my life for someone else's etc. I'm at above average mmr (play against killers with thousands of hours etc)
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