BHVR, can you post and balance around win, draw, and loss rates instead of kill rates?

Interesting observation on win rates versus kill rates. Nightlight for some reasons doesn’t show the overall kills per match breakdown, it only shows that breakdown by individual opposing killer, but it would be interesting to see the overall partition of kills per match (percent of 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 kills) and from that see what percentages are “wins” based on 3-4 kills being a win.

By the way, note that this could explain why the devs are ok with a 60% or so kill rate. If as mentioned in the original post the kill distribution is such that the kill rate is higher than the win rate then you could have it be the case that the game has a 60% kill rate but also has an even split of killer and survivor wins.

One last note, I could be wrong but I seem to recall that MMR itself discounts disconnects and hatch escapes from changes. Also note that the devs have said multiple times they don’t use that flat kill rate number for balancing purposes, instead they have internal dashboards that give them much finer drilled in data to use.

i have no clue why people think of draws in video games. Most games heavily avoid draws as it gives inconclusive result. DBD is no different in that regard.

The concept of draws comes from chess. the concept of Stalemate. In chess, its refer to as draw by insufficient material. Both players cannot progress so they agree with draw. The other stalemate is the inability to move your king or other pieces. One player not being able to progress the game therefore game is concluded as draw. draws in video games come from one player being unable to progress the game.

dbd does not have have draws really. there is no stalemate in dbd. they used to have stalemate with hatch stand-offs but this was removed for obvious reasons. one side can always make progress towards their objective. I would say 0, 1k and 2k are loss for killer, the killer failed to kill the majority of the team while 3k and 4k are wins for killer. the killer successful killed the majority members of the team. The survivors are suppose to be at odds to escape, while killer is favoured to kill but their objective is harder. the cookie cutter asymmetric win-conditions.

Closest you get to draws in dbd is if survivor are hiding when two players are left, but I am not sure how common this is. Whisper is killer perk that helps counter this situation but whisper was not one of the perks in developer statistic to be highly popular so I assume these situations are not that common. People do not care about it/put up with longer drawn out games as normal gameplay if the survivors refuses to die. I think what would be good is having killer instinct when two people are left if the killer does not find anyone within 2 minutes but this is separate issue altogether.

I am not sure if 3 generator can be consider a stalemate situation if the survivor is unable to progress them but that is another issue where generator should be so close to each other where killer can make the game go on forever. its also why I am heavily skeptical on perks like overcharge/call of brine that allow killer to compete with survivor's progression of the game in certain instances.

win-rate is way better then kill-rate for general statistic. the 1-2k for killer is for tiebreakers... which are only relevant if you are making tournament-type competitive system which dbd does not really need because its not really competitive. its more casual and the game largely centers around casual-fun.

Someone dying is survivor's loss. Imagine, that you find yourself and your family in trial. Would you settle for anything but getting everyone unscratched out as a win? No? Then 3 out is survivor's loss and balancing team should adjust killrate like this (so 20% killrate should be the target).

Is that unfair to killers? So is your 2 out killer loose lookout. Stop being unfair pls.

Ok. So make suggestion in a way, that at least 1 person gets out more often. My idea is to spawn open hatch when only 1 person is still standing (and another one is being slugged). Because any game that expects you to loose (the odds are, that you will get killed) is inherently unfair. And this is pvp not pve, so the game should not be unfair to any 1 side

And what about making both roles equal and getting rid of cheap game breaking camping and tunneling, to get 50% kr AND wr. Both should be possible. Also killer camping and tunneling is long-time survivors complaint so current status is not OK. (If you prefer to leave it the way it is, then you are satisfied with bad game)

Draws do exist in real games. Baseball games can end in draws for example when they're rained out. Soccer matches can end in ties depending on the rules of the respective tournament. Many boardgames can end in ties. It's not nearly as uncommon you're claiming.

Also DbD unfortunately has no clearly defined victory conditions regardless, the devs never have said what constitutes a killer winning a game versus the survivors winning the game versus the game being too close to call. So when a bunch of players feel it ended in a tie after 2 kills that's just as valid an opinion as saying the person with the most bloodpoints wins the match or every survivor who escapes wins and every survivor who dies loses and the killer only wins if they got the most bloodpoints, or whatever other system people come up with.

The problem is right now the game treats it as 4 individual matches. So a 1k is a loss for one of the survivors, a single win for the killer, three losses for the killer, and each other survivor gets a win. So in that sense the overall win/loss is reflective of what has occurred.

Peanits has mentioned that they are looking into more team based rewards/impacts, which I hope they do. I'd rather be judged on the overall team performance than just my own as I feel the game is much more enjoyable when treated like a team experience.

I think you are absolutely correct.

My feeling as a survivor: if we get the gens done/doors open and single survivor gets out, we won. Anything beyond 1 is just degree of victory.

Because only killers can't accelt draws and you are another one with this mindset. But ok. Let's go at it your way. Survivors win if at least 3 get out. Everything else is lost game. Now let's ask devs to rebalance game around this premise.

And no. I see no reason why I should take your 3k as killer barely win. It's your idea so you should be fine with 3 out being survivors barely won if you don't provide at least as good reason as I provided you for 4 out being only acceptable win for survivors (you would not be happy of event where someone you met died).

they win if two survivor escape. the two survivor that escape go up in MMR while other two draw. the reason for draws is that killer would have little reason prevent survivors escaping if all 4 survivor gained MMR. Like this, you technically gain MMR as killer for killing as many players in form of the draw and survivor has incentive to try get all 4 survivor out, but its not completely obligatory. In some cases, its not possible... like leatherface facecamping hooks etc.

In regards to camping. I think purpose of camping was to create time pressure for survivors to unhook their teammates. The idea fails spectacularly. The regression on hooks incentivized the killer to stay at hooks and disincentivize survivors to unhook survivor as result of camping. In fact the best counter to camping is to just leave your teammates on hooks and be ahead of the generator objective compare to the hooking objective. It creates weird racing dynamic of survivors completing generators vs the killer stand still at a hook.

Overall, they did try to create perks to extend hook timers like reassurance but killer complained about it. Personally, I do not think hooks should regress during the game and should only regress after 5 generator are done to prevent 99% exit gates but that is just my opinion.

In regards to tunneling. Killers tunnel because individually hooking survivor offers no reward for the killer. A survivor that is on 2 hook-states is as powerful at doing generator as a survivor on 0 hook-states, so from strategic perceptive, there is zero purpose in ever leaving a survivor alive. Killing the survivor is best form of slowdown for the killer making it the most popular and potent strategy in killer's arsenal in my opinion.

tunneling is related to win-condition for killer. I do not see anything changing in regards to this unless the killer win condition in regards 3 hook=death for the survivor changes. part of the problem comes from killer getting no rewards for isolated hooks which killers have often asked for slowdown perks that trigger on hooking. the idea behind slowdown perks is that these perk overwhelm the survivor if the killer is successful at the chase, but lose potency if the killer is looped for long time. issues with those perks is that you can use tunneling and camping to strength those strategies. Due to their wide-spread use, they have received negative changes, though some of them remain effective.

The only way I can see killer not tunneling is by removing the need to tunnel to win. I think only perk that does that is devour hope because devour hope groups all survivors hook-states and sets it to a single number. in DE, it is set to 5. With that perk, you can hook anyone and as long you reach 5 hooks, you will be able to kill survivors regardless of who you hooked to get to 5. you can tunnel but there is no difference in chasing one survivor from another in term of reward. The perk is a hex so its too unreliable, so in the end killer just tunnel because tunneling is certainty instead of relying on the bad rng totem spawns.

Overall I do not see anything changing in regards to these two strategies. they're part of the game and your better off just improving your chase as survivor to make tunnelling ineffective and doing generators efficiently to reduce effectiveness of camping.

i am not making this up. it is what was explained in the new years anniversary stream. that is how they calculate your MMR currently. it's decent system for killer. for survivor, its unintentionally harder to gain MMR than its really suppose to be but they did say they will consider adding team-based mmr for survivor so that ranking for survivor is easier. Killer has much easier time currently keeping MMR than they're suppose to be.

if you looped the killer for 5 gens and died, you might not lose MMR in the future if your overall team performed well as result of your excellent chase gameplay. People can stop memeing Patrick with hockey after the survivor mmr is slightly more refined. Killers are going to lose more often, but at least they are improving killer ever so slightly, so silver lining on that front.

Edit: I went on youtube to find the footage.

you can watch this video for their explanation for what is win.

Thank you. I fully agree with your opinion.

in the killer current system, the killer wins twice and loses twice. the survivors that died lost mmr and the survivor that escaped through exit gate gained MMR.

in the system i am describing, the killer loses twice. He does not gain any MMR. He only loses MMR. The survivors that escaped through exit gate still win MMR, but the survivors that were left behind do not lose any MMR. they don't gain any because they died but they do not lose anything. I would say survivor won as group but they did not dominate the killer. they just met the bare requirements to not lose.

If you gain MMR in games. that counts as winning the match. If you lose MMR in games, it counts as losing the match. In some sense, I am describing draws but only for the survivor. the survivor should not be required to get all 4 people out in every single trial. they just need get 2 or more people out. 2 people escaping means that the killer failed to kill the majority of the team. The difference between 2 survivors escaping, 3 survivors escaping and 4 survivors escaping just reflects how much the survivor team dominated the killer. for killer, 3 and 4 kills is nearly the same thing in dbd. it only describes how much the killer dominated the match. that is why kill-rate is somewhat misleading since killer can have like many games in a 2k, but only single game as 4k.

For example, if you have 4 games that are 2k's and 1 game that is 4k. the killer's win-rate is 1/5, 20% but the killer's kill-rate is 48%. this is why 47% escape and 53% kill-rate in previous patches was very low in my opinion. kill-rate means very little while win-rate give a lot more information.

survivors need to play as a team and its supposedly more difficult for 4 players to play perfectly to escape the killer then it is for killer to be successful at killing survivors. The killer getting kills is almost a given as the killer is suppose to be stronger in the 1vs1 compare to 4vs1. the difficult of escaping the killer is suppose to be so great that you often need martyr your own teammates for others to escape. contrary to your opinion, your friend dying for your ability to escape is intended. from gameplay perceptive, that is exactly how you defeat camping killers in the game. You let your teammates die on hook to get generator progress so that you can escape while leaving your teammates behind.

The survivor need to play perfectly for all 4 survivors to escape for the max MMR but they should not need to play perfectly to win. the survivor's objective is to upset the killer's victories. Their objective is not to flawless the killer. The survivor has low expectations to escape so when they do escape, its suppose to be like wow, that was impressive! if the killers are strong and the killer player is good, two survivors escaping should be difficult while 3 survivors escaping should be rare. 4 survivors escaping should very rare.

The killer have win conditions that are very black and white. they either successfully killed majority of the team or failed to do so. In terms of 3 and 4 kills, there is very little difference between the two outcomes. Killers typically slug the 3rd survivor to get 4th survivor in attempt to mitigate the hatch rng and exit gate spawn rng. The hatch mechanic and exit gate spawns is largely luck based with very little skill component in it. The killer that gets 3 kills is not that much better than the killer that get 4 kills. Barely winning for killer does not exist. Killers win or lose with nothing in between. Survivors have more complicate variations in winning because the team aspect of the game.

While there’s overlap, killers perform best at low to mid ranks and struggle at high ranks. So killers (both new and veteran) 3-4K easiest against newer survivors (low to mid ranks), not experienced survivors (mid to high ranks). Survivors perform poorly at low to mid ranks (failing to escape), but perform better at mid to high ranks (consistent escapes). Balancing low ranks would mean survivors require more enhancements. Balancing at high ranks means killers need that attention.

Balancing the game for 1% of player base (even if it's best players) sounds really elitist. Most of the player base would never experience balanced game under those conditions.

If that is the case why 61% is good idea, then I have much better idea. Nerf killer's noob tactics and buff killer's mechanically/tactically hard things. Create something like killer's version of hyperfocus (very hard to pull off, but gives you best reward if you do). Make the game easier for starting survivors. Basically... Make the game balanced for everyone (this includes swf vs solo gap closing).

i think killer should be like blight where their base-kit is strong vs weaker players but end up being balanced vs high-level players. Blight for low-level plays is overpowered because nobody understand how to loop 115% m/s killers, so looping 230 m/s is out of the question. Alchemist ring vs low-level is a power with 0 cooldown which is why it gets complaints. Blight vs middle-level is very strong. The killer is favoured to win. Blight vs high-level is challenging match for the killer, but it is not impossible to win. The survivors also have opportunity to win.

Nurse? Performs terribly at low-level, Does ok at middle-level and gives greatest reward for mastery. in term of perks? Hex:Ruin and Pain res. Gives highest amount of regression for hooking a survivor automatically and pressuring the map with passive regression.

They are not noob-tactics. They're simply how the killer win conditions are right now. you can disagree for how the killer wins but this is just how the game is at current moment. You can give killer incentives to hook other survivors but the killer will use the perks to hook survivors to reap rewards of the perks and do those strategies simultaneously. So unless you change how the killer wins, nothing is changing on that front.

Yes all of your 3 point is true. You can have 3 weak players, kill all 3, but if high mmr killer escapes, the survivor will gain a lot of MMR. This is very very unlikely because the matchmaking system is design to find player close to your skill-level so this almost never happens for 1-1600, but it can happen for higher-level due to smaller player pool.

They never explain what happens on disconnects. Likely a null for all players or a loss. Patrick does not go in detail in the video on that.

This is exactly what patrick is saying in the video. Win is the survivor escaping through exit gate. A kill through 3 hooks, bleed out for 4 minutes or mori is consider a win for the killer. That's it, there is nothing more. I have been trying explain that in my previous posts. this is where some people criticized Patrick with hockey = DBD because he made a system that works like battle royal mmr in a team-based game for survivor. Its not too far off though. Just needs few refinements. Survivors should not get punishing if they're last survivor to be chased in the game and their team leaves them behind. Killers should lose when they fail to kill the majority of the team so it will be harder for killer to rank then in current system. Overall there is no draws in killer system, but there are draws in the survivor system in my proposed system to refine their battle royal system into team-based MMR system.

To me, it just looks common sense. Hopefully when their team MMR happens, we'll have less meaningless kill-rates and more meaningful win-rates.

a win is subjective

Kills are objective

Again, you keep saying he's describing MMR as winning but he isn't. That's just your preconception of what MMR is supposed to be.

1. The only clear goal is survive/kill. What is a win for survivor? all escape or individual escape? Did the killer lose if he killed 3?
2. yes i did play such a game, it was called Killstrain.
3. "BHVR is just avoiding actually balancing game at that point" ? Have you seen what they have been doing in the past month?

Killers do not have skillchecks and normal skilchecks in dbd are pretty easy. A perk that increases lunge distance is coup the grace and it is based off generator completion i.e you have lose the game to use the perk. Killers gain skill expression through their power. Not their perks but perks can have skill-expression elements within them.

If you want to buff skill-expression, buff their power, not perks though perks can help create a theme for killer/remove drawbacks from their ability.

in regards camping, if you want killer camp less, they need to have confidence to not need camp to win however a killer can still camp even if their power is strong because each of killer strategies provide inherent advantage in different situations. buff killer powers and they may camp less.

Camping does not neccassary have to be the killer standing at hook. it can be but it does not have to be. It relies on killer prevents survivors from unhooking to push the survivor in 2nd and 3rd hook-states. I am not sure how to explain this in words. a lot of the times, camping is often just intercepting the survivor that is going for the hook. https://youtu.be/lhjpvW701CE?t=1020

I think only video explanation can be used to try explain camping. Ohtofu is doing some scrim nights with killers and here's an example of blight and how you can strategically camp with him. in 17:00, blight downs a survivor, he is carrying a survivor to a hook on suffocation pit and 2 generator pop. he can intercepts the person going for the unhook and claudette goes second stage as nobody was able to save her. Blight is using his power to patrol hook and intercepts people going for unhook to push claudette to 2nd state which is successful camp. The blight is using his lethal rushes to patrol hook and return back to the hook, in moments, he is proxy camping and in other cases, he is directly facecamping near hook.

This is what I mean by camping is not just standing at hook, it can be that but its main goal prevent survivors from unhooking the survivor. Camping will be rewarding during the game as long as hook regress and its just part of the game. proxy camping is more common for mobile killers like blight while facecamping(being in 24 meter of a hook) is more common for immobile killers... like Myer's with instant EV3. All that proxy and face is referring to is distance of the killer between hook, nothing more.

well the killer power did not improve. the m1 killer are still bad because their power is garbage hence there is no confidence in the killer to win by not camping.

yes and this is the case even for stronger killers. Look at blight in that video between 17:00 - 18:16. He was patrol hook using his lethal rushes and going back to the hook until the Claudette went to second state. Camping is all about intercepting the unhooker and pushing survivors to 2nd state because it reduces the number of chases required for the killer to win.

Killers do not have time to go for 12 chases per match, so they skip objective by camping and slugging. Its like shortcut to winning the match. Killer also tunnel because eliminating a survivor early is best gen slowdown they can get and less people in a trial, the more time they have to go for chases.

BVHR approach in regards to tunneling, camping and slugging is to punish the killer for doing those things instead of rewarding the killer for NOT doing those strategies. the result is that the survivor perks related to punishing the killer become meta if the perk is effective and the killer gets punished because he is still forced to do all those actions to have any competitive chance at winning. that is why i said they would need change win-condition such that killer does not need tunnel to win and the rewards of camping(regressing hook) are not there, so killer are less likely to utilize these strategies because it will make them lose the match instead of win the match.

the game is horrible imbalanced for the killer for going for 12 hooks. The killer not skipping their objective will 100% lose if the team is equally skilled at the game as the killer. There is not enough time for killer to go for 12 hooks vs the survivor doing 5 generators. Even if survivor goes down on every loop, the game is still close/survivor-sided.

I think you have misconception that killer that tunnel, camp and slug are bad at the game. this is not true. Being good at the chase for killer is BASELINE. That is bare minimum to even be high mmr as killer. Its that being good at the chase is not GOOD ENOUGH to win players that are as consistent good as survivor as you are as killer.

do you think this blight is low-level? This gameplay for blight is not low-level. this guy, just watching his gameplay is top 5% killer in whatever region he plays. 100%. A top 5% blight still needs to ... skip the objective to stay competitive. The games are close even when the killer is SKIPPING the objective to win. The blight is not camping because he think he is bad at the game. He is camping because he knows he needs to camp to stay competitive with his competition. If you look towards end of the video, The survivors are at 1 generator. 1 GENERATOR. with camping and during 1 generator, he is also slugging. 3 man slugging. you see killer is forced to use these strategies to stay competitive. the game is still very close and can go either way. Not skipping objective like slugging and camping will result in 3 survivors escaping thereby killer losing.

The idea that bad killers tunnel/camp/slug is casual belief. Bad killers try to utilize these strategies and do not understand how to use them correctly while good killers are forced to these strategies to beat stronger survivor players. perhaps now you understand why kill-rate are not that accurate and that team-based MMR of 0-1-2 kills is win for survivor and 3/4 kill is win for killer. Games balance around win-rates, not kill/death/assist ratio(KDA).

that video is not tournament, its just ohtofu hosting kill your friends. that is all. I am just using the video to showcase what i mean by killer's relying on shortcuts to win matches which is trying to address why you dislike efficient killer play(tunneling/camping and slugging). Ohtofu also says there is no rules. You can see ending screen of 4 purple med-kits with gel dressing/iri add-on instant heals in end game screen. Everyone has the perks and add-on of their choosing.

its not different then anything you will see public matches. all the gameplay shown in the video can happen in soloq matches and does happen in soloq matches.

As for A. and B. I already explained my position on that in the earlier posts. I am just saying that balancing off kill-rate is like balancing off KDA in league of legends. games do not balance off KDA. they balance off win-rate and dbd should do the same.

Not tunneling doesn't mean that you hook each survivor once, then twice, then a third time.

Let's say you hook Survivor A, chase survivor B, and in the time it's taken Survivor A to be rescued and potentially healed up, you've hooked Survivor B. Survivor A is now fair game. This is not tunneling.

Now, let's say you hook Survivor A and then Survivor B unhooks Survivor A shortly after you've left the hook. If you come back and deliberately choose to go after Survivor A, that is tunneling.