General Discussions
General Discussions
I refuse to believe there is a 4% chance of self unhooking
This is just the entity giving false hope.
Based on 2 years and hundreds of hours play it is simply not true you have a 1 in 20 chance of self unhooking.
Try it myself sometimes. Watched loads of people suicide as well. They never free themselves by accident.
My estimate of true probability : 0.5%
Comments
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Small game gives you extra unhook attempts it's worked a few times, not as much as i would like
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But over time luck should even out - laws of probability and all that.
I'm happy with the size of my sample to scientifically declare as fact that the 4% chance is pure nonsense.
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Remember, it's less than 1 per 20 EVERY TRY
the dice rolls don't suddenly come up and let you loose on the 20th try.
RNG will always be RNG
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You mean Slippery Meat.
I used to use that paired with Up the Ante (and some times luck offerings) to jump off.
I might throw it back on for the hell of it.
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No I didnt write them down I'm not that much of a nerd!
The 4% is a lie!
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I think it's more like a 1 in 5 chance because I SWEAR at least one happens every two to three matches when I'm playing killer.
And I think the "chance" actually secretly increases based on how poorly the survivors are doing. Every time I'm having a record book game it seems to happen. Like it's taking pity on them.
I used to let kobe's go. Because I thought they were rare. Lol, I see kobe's more than I see moris if I'm being 100% honest.
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I dont necessarily agree but I like that you think there is something going on behind the scenes with it....
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Yes i did
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Its Slippery Meat that does that
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"My sample size shows that 4% is a lie."
"Did you write it down?"
"No."
What is this, the Magic Arena forums?
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This is my third time using this, but- to hell with it! ONE MORE TIME!
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i mean i have unhooked myself a few weeks ago 2 games in a row with 3% or i just forgot that i always use unhook myself perk
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The cake is a lie too, life itself is a lie!!!!!!
Kappa.
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When I play killer its more like a 4% chance they don't jump off.
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Wow, got ‘em. This is quote of the week for General Discussion. Maybe the whole month.
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I've unhooked myself a decent amount of times. Also, Survivors could have been unhooking themselves and you might have just been assuming that someone else saved them.
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Sonetimes happens 3 times in a row, sonetimes it never happen for 200 tries
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That is a fair point but since there is only a 0.5% chance of unhooking more likely they were rescued.
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That's some weird logic. It almost never happens, so when it might have happened it probably didn't?
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203 / 3 = 1 in 67 chance = 1.49% chance.
You agree with me more or less.
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What I mean is that its just rng as much as skillchecks.
sometimes 10 skillchecks pop for a single gen, sometimes not a single one for like 2 gens.
itsjust rng and usually it never favors you
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Is there a maths professor here? If you have 3 x 20/1 chances what is the chance of landing one of them?
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A math professor would probably tell you to learn how probability functions.
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Ive unhooked myself a fair amount of times. Typically I only try to do it when its obvious that no one else is going to be able to. Sometimes... it works out. Managed to turn a possible death on first hook and 4k into a 4 escape because of a lucky self unhook right before hitting struggle phase (the killer had slugged 2 teammates around my hook and was chasing the last guy).
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To be fair, it is lower than 1 in 20, simply because 4% equates to 1 in 25. Unless my math is wrong. 5% would be 1 in 20.
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OP has a case of gambler's fallacy. Unless we want to start some conspiracy theories, there's always a 4% chance.
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Mine is a conspiracy theory - sort of the point of the thread.
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I commonly run a build as survivor that involves jumping off a hook. Here's a run-down on numbers.
Survivor has a 4% base chance of jumping off with 3 attempts (No Joke)
With Slippery Meat, you gain 3 more attempts of jumping off, but still the same percent chance of getting off (4%).
However, if you combo both Up The Ante and Slippery Meat, then you not only have a total of 6 escape attempts, but a 13% chance of escaping each time. This chance goes down as people die though. (you and two people left alive: 10%. you and one other person alive: 7%).
Or just run Deliverance and get a 100% chance of escape. The only thing you need to do there is get a safe unhook.
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Each time you try there is a 4% chance without using perks or luck offerings to help.
That 4 percent chance doesn't change so it is always just a 1 in 20 chance to get off each and every try.
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You have to ask entity to give it to you. Today I unhooked myself. But I first said Please entity give it to me
Also entity won't give it to you for nothing. You have to be in the situation where you actually need it and deserve it.
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Yeah, when you play for a long time, 4% can easily feel like 0.1%, even when it truly isn't.
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I just want to apologize upfront. I'm being one of those grammer asses and i hate myself for it. Just know that i am in pain to be like this. But well....4% isn't a 1in20.
4% is in reality a 1 in 25.
I don't know why this is bothering me just know the fact that I feel compelled to correct this is really ticking me off.
Im sorry and will go away now and contemplate some mental health therapy.
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I got it twice today
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With a 4% chance to unhook yourself you have a 90% probability to do so within 56 attempts and 99% probability within 113 attempts.
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With the OP's 0.5% chance it comes too:
90% probability within 459 attempts
99% probability within 919 attempts
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I know this is a joke but you can have a 50/50, play it 100 times and get 100 equal results
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tell that to the guy who tried to kill himself in my game a few days ago xD
its a slim chance and since pretty much no one tries to do it these days, you dont see it happen like at all.
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It's a 4% per attempt. So over all 3 attempts the odds of freeing yourself are 11.5% before any luck offerings are used
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I have a conspiracy theory as well... it really feels like your odds of self unhooking go up when everyone is downed/hooked. But it's prolly just luck.
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I've had the last person Kobe off a basement hook behind me. It happens.
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With 4 luck offerings, 4 ace in the holes and slippery meat your odds of getting off the hook are 99.7%
If you take out the luck offerings its 98.7% and without Slippery Meat it's 88.9408%.
Just Slippery Meat alone is 21.7% and a single ace in the hole is 40.7%
Slippery Meat and a single ace in the hole is 64.8%
This all assumes all 4 Survivors are alive of course.
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Not how chance works I'm afraid. Each attempt is still a 4% chance of an unhook.
Take the example of 96 white marbles and 4 blue marbles mixed together in a bowl. Blindly pick a marble from the bowl. If you pick a white marble you don't leave it out and pick again from a bowl of 99. There will always be 96 white and 4 blue with each attempt.
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Yes it's 4% (plus whatever from luck) but you have 3 attempts.
So the odds of all 3 being failed attempts is 0.96^3 which is 0.884736
Since the odds of a success is 1-odds of falure that means 1-0.884736 = 0.115264 or about 11.5%
With Sloppy butcher its 6 attempts so 0.96^6. Remember the failed attempts don't matter so long as at least 1 of the attempts is a success before you run out.
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I see what you saying. You're correct.
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I don't know if its 4% but within 2 weeks I kobe'd (unhooked myself without deliverance) 12-14 times. Needless to say my friends were all pissed at me that I was doing it and robbing them of their unhooked. I got most clipped I believe
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I do it alllll the time. Not consistently, but often enough.
Also wouldnt 4% be 1/25?
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With all 3 attempts, without luck, you will have an 88.4736% chance to NOT kobe.
Technically, survivors have roughly a 12% chance to unhook themselves if they use all 3 attempts.
Think of it as cumulative luck, when you try something for a result and fail, the more you keep trying it — the odds are you will eventually succeed. :)
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uhm 4% is 1 out of 25 NOT 20. And I'm pretty sure that if you play 25 matches, you will successfully kobe in at least one of them.
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Also when a teammate is trying to save me :P
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This feels like a conversation with an antivax honestly.
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