Kobe is happening to often

Are any of the Survivors running Deliverance?

I am using Deliverance, Up the Ante, Slippery Meat and fill with Self Care. During my 3 hour stream I unhooked myself 11 times. Currently at 16 unhooks in about 4,5h of gametime. Working for that new achievement.

It's weird I see it happen all the time as killer, but I've been playing the game for over a year now and still haven't gotten a Kobe 

@Wolf74 said:

@Smiss said:
It's cause you're looking at the numbers from a non-statistics point of view, which is understandable cuz not everyone knows statistics well. What you need to consider is that each survivor has a 4% chance to kobe each kobe attempt, not just all of the first phase. To find out the real chance of kobeing, we need to consider it is 3 attempts in total.

The best way to find this out is by figuring out the chance that the survivor will **NOT ** kobe. Because you have a 4% chance to kobe, you have a 96% chance to fail to each kobe. So 1st attempt, 96% chance to fail. But with the 2nd attempt, we have to keep in mind that you only get a 2nd attempt if you fail to first one, so the odds of failing your first 2 kobe attempts is .96 * .96, then you still have to count the third attempt meaning your total equation is .96 * .96 * .96. doing this gets you about 88.5% for failing all 3 tries, meaning each survivor really has an 11.5% chance to unhook themselves if they try all 3 times. This is just the base chance, including things such as luck offerings, Slippery Meat, and Up The Ante increase their chance of kobeing.

Actually I do know pretty well how statistics work, that's why I doubt the numbers.
Even if you break it down mathematically it happens way to often, especially if you see them kobe on the first or 2nd attempt.

The fact that you think it matters if it's the first or second attempt in any given trial tells me you don't know how statistics work.

Using a binomial distribution, the odds of 1 or more successes with a 0.04 (4%) probability of success are around 11.5%.
Assuming that Survivors play 50 trials per day and get 3 attempts on each, that's 150 attempts, which brings P(X>=x) up to 99.78% - a near-certainty that they'll be able to get off the hook.

@DeadByFlashlight said:

@Wolf74 said:
Serious… am I supposed to believe it is only a 4% chance?
Than why do I see it happen soooo often?
Especially on second last victims?

Either I am a total RNG mischief or some numbers need to get checked.

There is a new perk granting 100% kobe.
All you can do is stay a bit closer to the hook now

if you have bonus to luck it's 101%. since 101% is impossible,it becomes 1%. Nice perk btw

@Sarief said:

@Orion said:

@Wolf74 said:

@Smiss said:
It's cause you're looking at the numbers from a non-statistics point of view, which is understandable cuz not everyone knows statistics well. What you need to consider is that each survivor has a 4% chance to kobe each kobe attempt, not just all of the first phase. To find out the real chance of kobeing, we need to consider it is 3 attempts in total.

The best way to find this out is by figuring out the chance that the survivor will **NOT ** kobe. Because you have a 4% chance to kobe, you have a 96% chance to fail to each kobe. So 1st attempt, 96% chance to fail. But with the 2nd attempt, we have to keep in mind that you only get a 2nd attempt if you fail to first one, so the odds of failing your first 2 kobe attempts is .96 * .96, then you still have to count the third attempt meaning your total equation is .96 * .96 * .96. doing this gets you about 88.5% for failing all 3 tries, meaning each survivor really has an 11.5% chance to unhook themselves if they try all 3 times. This is just the base chance, including things such as luck offerings, Slippery Meat, and Up The Ante increase their chance of kobeing.

Actually I do know pretty well how statistics work, that's why I doubt the numbers.
Even if you break it down mathematically it happens way to often, especially if you see them kobe on the first or 2nd attempt.

The fact that you think it matters if it's the first or second attempt in any given trial tells me you don't know how statistics work.

Using a binomial distribution, the odds of 1 or more successes with a 0.04 (4%) probability of success are around 11.5%.
Assuming that Survivors play 50 trials per day and get 3 attempts on each, that's 150 attempts, which brings P(X>=x) up to 99.78% - a near-certainty that they'll be able to get off the hook.

This.
it's not 4%. It's 11.5% without any bonuses. New players have hidden bonus as well.
Don't trust survivors. They always spout lies. Like "respect 4%" #########.

@Jack11803
Source on that "hidden bonus" for new survs?

Sorry. Wrong person. You don't have to be condescending, y'know…

@Wolf74 said:

@Orion said:

@Wolf74 said:

@Smiss said:
It's cause you're looking at the numbers from a non-statistics point of view, which is understandable cuz not everyone knows statistics well. What you need to consider is that each survivor has a 4% chance to kobe each kobe attempt, not just all of the first phase. To find out the real chance of kobeing, we need to consider it is 3 attempts in total.

The best way to find this out is by figuring out the chance that the survivor will **NOT ** kobe. Because you have a 4% chance to kobe, you have a 96% chance to fail to each kobe. So 1st attempt, 96% chance to fail. But with the 2nd attempt, we have to keep in mind that you only get a 2nd attempt if you fail to first one, so the odds of failing your first 2 kobe attempts is .96 * .96, then you still have to count the third attempt meaning your total equation is .96 * .96 * .96. doing this gets you about 88.5% for failing all 3 tries, meaning each survivor really has an 11.5% chance to unhook themselves if they try all 3 times. This is just the base chance, including things such as luck offerings, Slippery Meat, and Up The Ante increase their chance of kobeing.

Actually I do know pretty well how statistics work, that's why I doubt the numbers.
Even if you break it down mathematically it happens way to often, especially if you see them kobe on the first or 2nd attempt.

The fact that you think it matters if it's the first or second attempt in any given trial tells me you don't know how statistics work.

Using a binomial distribution, the odds of 1 or more successes with a 0.04 (4%) probability of success are around 11.5%.
Assuming that Survivors play 50 trials per day and get 3 attempts on each, that's 150 attempts, which brings P(X>=x) up to 99.78% - a near-certainty that they'll be able to get off the hook.

Are you kidding me?
That calculation is completely invalid for my point.
It doesn't matter how many matches they play per day. It is about them kobe in MY matches.
So you have to go from the amount of matches I play, not them.
And I do not play 50 matches a day and still happens regular to me. Especially in crucial situations.
And since most survivor don't even try to kobe or only once, your calculations are flawed again.

No, you have to go by the matches that they play, since they're the ones rolling the dice. Once again, you confirm that you don't understand statistics, at all.

My assumptions were just that - assumptions. If you have a different set of conditions you'd like me to calculate, just say so.