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Breaking down the facts: Killers are massively overpowered and the grim numbers aren't even telling

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Comments

  • TheSubstitute
    TheSubstitute Member Posts: 2,436

    The 60% kill rate is what the developers intend. I think the kill rate has to favour Killers a bit because there are multiple survivors who drop out and then sometimes the remaining 3 survivors get a 3E. There are 4K games as well where, if the survivor who left had stayed, there would have been at least some escapes. If the developers didn't take that into account then it would lead to a situation where the game had better odds for the Survivors than the Killer if all players stuck around (of which sticking around is more commonly the case as MMR rises). I'm fine with that as DbD is a horror game. 60% might be a bit too much for some so maybe 55% would suit them better and get the same effect. I don't know myself and I'm fine with 60% when the game is played as intended.

    Honestly though I think a lot of this would disappear if tunnelling was just properly nerfed and spreading hooks properly incentivized. I don't care about losing and a closely fought lost game, in my opinion, is far more fun than a roflstomp. What isn't fun is not being able to play the game as intended which is what happens to the survivor who is tunneled. If tunneling were removed I think a lot of the intensity of complaints about kill rates would diminish as the enjoyability of play would increase (not disappear but come on its the Internet; complaining about something will never disappear entirely on the Internet).

  • Rogue11
    Rogue11 Member Posts: 1,410

    Each match is 4 1v1 matches. This has been confirmed multiple times by the devs in regards to how they balance the game and how mmr is scored. A 2k is 2 wins and 2 losses for the killer. Otherwise you're saying a 2k is a win for 2 survivors, a loss for 2 survivors, and a draw for the killer. You can keep copypasta'ing this every day but it doesn't make it true.

  • Prometheus1092
    Prometheus1092 Member Posts: 238

    what do you propose a killer should do if a survivor is deliberately trying to get the killer to chase them because they are the strong looper on the team? It's a common tactic that 1 or 2 people loop the killer as long as possible while the others do gens in peace. I see 2 options, follow through and try take that person out (tunnel) or if they are just too good at looping, ignore that looper and go for the weaker members of the team. But in doing that a killer is ignoring other looping survivors to concentrate on the weaker one...(Tunnel)

    I'm curious how the game was intended to be played tbh because it's generally unacceptable to tunnel which is essentially keeping chase and killing the survivor as fast as possible before gens get completed. But it's acceptable to loop around a tile endlessly and goad the killer into a chase

  • dbd900bach
    dbd900bach Member Posts: 679

    Leaving D/C matches out of kill/escape rate statistics doesn't imply that the matches are disregarded in some trash bin as a whole. The devs are very well aware of the common reasons players quit before the match ends and have stated so. However, a D/C match is an outlier compared to a regular game where no one quits because it's a wildly different situation where most players play completely differently or they don't play at. A 4v1 is now a 3v1 or the survivor automatically won by default because the killer left. It's an entirely seperate thing as a whole which is how it should stay so something can be learned from it, but if it's mixed in with everything else, then not only does it dilute data with outliers, but it then becomes more easy to go unnoticed which can lead to wild conclusions that aren't accurate to what's actually happening.

  • tjt85
    tjt85 Member Posts: 844

    How do we know these games are outliers, though? For all we know, games that include a DC are almost as common as the ones that don't. Some Survivors will DC just before their third hook or a Killer will DC just before the Survivors get a likely 4E. So these were more or less still "regular" games from start to finish, yet such games won't make it into the statistics and nothing will be learned from them.

    These things happen often enough in my games that I think it would be silly to ignore them. This is why I hope BHVR take a more nuanced look at the stats than it sometimes appears to us and will take into account all games played when making balancing decisions.

  • adsads123123123123
    adsads123123123123 Member Posts: 1,093
    edited July 10

    You realize matches where killers DC, which results in an instant 4-man escape, are also excluded? Killers generally DC when they are losing, getting bullied or looped too hard. Survivor DCs are offset by killer DCs.

    Suicide on hook is also included, which inflates the kill rate.

  • Neaxolotl
    Neaxolotl Member Posts: 1,477

    And many killers complain about their 10% kill rates, your point is not about game balance, but personal experience of not exactly good survivors

    Basekit BT, basekit AFC, basekit icons, much less obnoxious slowdowns, multiple killer nerfs against top tier killers, I don't know what to say if you can't accept the fact it's the best time solo q ever has been

    "slightly out of the way" is exactly most of the survivors want to, too

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096

    We want an equal challenge within reason, as in, "Wow, those guys played well and I played sloppy, so I deserve to lose." unlike how it usually is which is, "Hmm. Outplayed them at every chase, had full meta, detached and committed exactly when necessary, memorized all hook states and played accordingly. But they still got 3-4 out and I didn't even get DS'd or Dead Hard'd. Guess I still deserved to lose." When you hop off Nurse, Spirit, and Blight, that's how killer goes, when everyone's on the same skill level. So we're not saying, "Killer's so underpowered I don't ever win." We win plenty. It's just that when we lose, we'd at least like to be out-skilled, not out-advantaged, which is what gen speed, second chance perks, and god loops create.

  • jezebelthenun
    jezebelthenun Member Posts: 195

    This is pretty true, though going afk is as close as they can get, and I've seen it more than a few times. They still lose, of course, but so do survivors who unalive themselves on hooks, technically.

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096

    Yeah. Even I give up as survivor sometimes. But I don't get on here an say, "These killahs are so OP!" I blame the team, because it's seriously so easy as survivor when everyone does things that make sense. But because a majority of the playerbase, which is what the devs balance around, don't make sense, we get this. Killers are weaker, compared to survivors, than ever before and yet survivors are dying and DC'ing en masse. You can't balance around nonsense, never-try players.

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096
    edited July 11

    Yeah, because if you do the math, which Tru3 has done, you'd come to the realization that you can draw like 80% of your matches, and that's technically 60% kill rate. Ideal results, not.

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096

    They have, and so I don't fully trust that they don't still do. Look at Freddy, Spirit, Wraith, and Skull Merchant's nerfs. 100% DC rates were considered, because everyone was doing it, and sure enough after the nerf, mysteriously people stopped. And these weren't all strong killers either. "Freddy OP because teleport and slowdown perks! Wraith OP because fast, invisible, AND long lunge!" The only exception is Skull Merchant, because people are so ignorant to balance changes (or to putting in a minutiae of effort, idk) that they still DC against her.

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096

    The kill rate percentage is such a deceptive, crowd-pleaser argument. And it still doesn't work for what they're trying to say, and in fact it destroys their own argument. We're playing a game where the killer is trying to kill*, and the survivors are trying to escape*. Why would a 60% kill rate be ideal, even for people who were killer biased? It still means that on average, half the survivors escape, which is a draw not and not an imaginary subjective 'win' condition "because it's about fun" or some mumbo jumbo. If you cut out the matches where the survivors completely threw, it was a complete mismatch, or someone gave up, kill rate would be like 40%, and that's being generous. The things that survivors have to do to win, and the skill they have to employ, is so much lower than what the killer has to do, and that shouldn't even be up for debate.

    But yeah, the devs do what they want to do, even to the detriment of the game, and against the advice of the game's most experienced players. Somehow, the community has deemed them killer mains and survivor mains simultaneously. I think we know it's the latter, since (heck) is there actually a killer on the roster who hasn't been nerfed at some point? I'm really struggling to think of one. The devs are gonna continue to balance for, not survivor in general, but the lowest caliber of survivor possible, as in teams which fall apart the moment someone gets hooked or the killer uses a gen regression perk 1 time. If they balanced for high skill survivors, I'd have no issue, or at least less of an issue. But as I said, beginner survivor players, who still treat the game like a horror game, are their target audience, and the balance reflects that.

  • danielmaster87
    danielmaster87 Member Posts: 9,096

    Which is why the exits should be openable by them at any time.

  • dbd900bach
    dbd900bach Member Posts: 679

    But they do. You didn't even try reading what wrote. It's a seprate thing altogether that isn't part of the main data. Being seprate allows it to be looked at more closely to see why players DC and if it's for a legitimate reason like 45 minute Skull Merchant games or 20 minutes slugged or, was it because someone got tilted at the slightest thing?

  • Caiman
    Caiman Member Posts: 2,582

    BhVR deciding 60% killrate nearly what 4 years into their game is
    absurd. Choosing to make one side inherently stronger to chase a horror
    theme is shortsighted.

    This is a hilarious thing to say about a game that's been going strong for 8 years in spite of all its flaws, passionately supported by thousands upon thousands of dedicated horror fans.

  • Sava18
    Sava18 Member Posts: 2,439

    In prime god validation dh, ub, ds, iw and CoH with alot of maps that were better and or more interactive for survivors, the kill rate was still 53%. Do you know why? Because there are so many incentives for survivors to not play the game. Rift, suicide, fun build, trying to interact with the killer more than not and challenges just to name some off the top of my head.

    Do you know how many survivor games I have lost just because one person never intended to be even some-what efficient? At least 30-50% of my loses with a moderate guess. You can never have that 50% that should make sense because the player base and the game actively work against it.

    Your just using data that doesn't work because people aren't really trying often enough for them to be accurate.

    Let me be clear I haven't mained killer since 6.1.0 and I don't find a ton of killers fun or interactive to play against.

  • Raptorrotas
    Raptorrotas Member Posts: 3,237

    WWhy are we treating the game as if survivors could draw in the match. They die (lose) or escape (win). It's currently not possible for them to draw against anyone.

    As for killers, after lots of gaslighting and conditioning in the f irst 3 years of the game,survivors made killers accept a 3k being a win too (despite there being no "win-reward" for doing so). For a killer win to occur, they need 3 or 4 kills. Anything less is a loss.

    AAnd now comes the disingenious part.

    PPeople see x % rate and demand 50:50...

    SSurvivor: 50% escape, 50% die

    Killer : 50% lose, draw%, (50-draw)win%

    PPeople wanna judge survs individually but force nonexistant team judgement onto killers.

  • MrPenguin
    MrPenguin Member Posts: 2,425
    edited July 11

    Wasn't that in regards to why survivor is not judged as a team, not the killers MMR or win condition?

    Afaik It's exactly as you listed it, a win for two survivors, a loss for two, and a draw for the killer.
    Because the game is asymm, so both sides are judged differently. Survivor only cares if you individually escape for a win or loss while killer cares about total escapes for a win or loss.

    So for the survivors it's 4 1v1's. But for the killer it's 1v4. Again, because the game is asymm.

    To my understanding from the collective of everything I've seen the devs say. But if there was a more comprehensive concrete breakdown all in one spot I haven't seen I would like to see it.

    The best thing I found was this from the wiki:

    So as far as information I've found and have access too at this time, my original idea is correct.

    Post edited by MrPenguin on
  • tjt85
    tjt85 Member Posts: 844
    edited July 11

    I did read what you said. You missed my argument that games with a DC are probably not "outliers". They are regular games in so much as they are regular occurrences. But since they don't share the data on DC games or all games played, it gives the impression (fair or otherwise) that they don't take these games into account when making changes to the game (maybe it's just perception on my part). But there must be a data set at BHVR giving an accurate and full account of the escape and Kill rates for all games played. It's not enough to say Survivors escape 40% of the time (but only if we ignore x% of games). Because we as players experience the games that are missing in the reported data and can see that it doesn't match up to our own experiences.

    If players DC a lot, that would suggest problems with the game that go way beyond players just getting "tilted at the slightest thing" (I'd look to the match making system and a lack of reward for team play as the likeliest probable causes). I think things that lead up to a DC are cumulative in nature, which is why I don't get too annoyed when they happen because I know that player's probably had 3 or more very bad trials in a row.

  • Devil_hit11
    Devil_hit11 Member Posts: 8,183

    massive overpowered? Does that mean survivor gets massive buffs? Maybe we decrease base-kit healing time from 16→12 seconds and increase pallet stuns from 2 second →3.5 second.

  • TheSubstitute
    TheSubstitute Member Posts: 2,436

    Or you could just not take the bait and not chase the strong looper around the strong tile. There is a meta strategy to the game as well. If you let yourself get goaded into chases that aren't wise to take and around strong tiles then that's on you.

  • Neaxolotl
    Neaxolotl Member Posts: 1,477

    DC rate doesn't tell anything beside that one game with higher DC rates having simply bad community, nothing more

    Everything else is a mental gymnastics to bend the fact in favor of someone's own narrative

  • UndeddJester
    UndeddJester Member Posts: 2,962
    edited July 11

    Your assertion assumes that there are more games where a survivor quits as a result of the game being lost, over survivors quitting being the cause of losing the game.

    In my experience there are far more games lost as a result of players quitting early over players quitting because the game is lost.

    This tracks, because a quitter forgoes their points, and thus a quit is far more common early on in the match when a survivors isn't really losing anything in regards to points earned.

    When a game is lost, vast majority of players hide and try to get hatch to get more points, this is usually a result of them being there later on in the game where they actually have some points to lose.

    If we really want to argue about what inflates stats, the number of games survivors lose as a result of people suiciding on hooks (or even just attempting to suicide on hook) artificially inflates the kill rates for killers, because those ARE included in the stats. We have evidence of this already in regards to Skull Merchant, as her killrate is massively inflated as a result of SoH.

    So.... your fundamental argument is ignoring quite a lot of considerations that means your point has an unstable foundation at best, and is just plain biased propaganda at worst.

  • MaTtRoSiTy
    MaTtRoSiTy Member Posts: 1,851

    Honestly… this is mostly a skill issue on the survivor side. Survivor main myself btw

  • Prometheus1092
    Prometheus1092 Member Posts: 238

    So you agree that the solution would be ignore the looper and concentrate on the weaker ones... That would be called tunneling, deliberately ignoring other survivors to take down a particular survivor. Doesn't matter what way you look at it, survivors loop killers tunnel.

  • Tzimiscelord
    Tzimiscelord Member Posts: 146

    A 50% kill rate means 2 survivors won, the killer tied (so, the killer didnt win) and 2 survivors lost.

    In order for the killer to win some, lose some, the killer rate has to be over 50%.

    60% is quite healthy. The killer win some. He also lose some, sure, but remember that a killer that gets 2 kills, do not win the game or increase their MMR.

  • Saiph
    Saiph Member Posts: 317

    A draw is not equal to 0 win, it is equal to half a win. Also, strictly speaking, 1K/3K are not full wins/losses, they are 75% of a win/loss - that part doesn't make a big difference, but that's how MMR treats it: if you get a 4K you get more MMR than just a 3K.

    If you properly take this into account, then your example magically becomes:

    Kill rate=57.5%

    Winrate=57.5%

    Kill rate and winrate are the same. People who say the opposite are just trying to make killer winrate appear lower by counting 2K for killers the same as if they were losses, when in reality it should be counted as neither a win or a loss. They know very well that they are wrong, they know it's not how MMR works, I have explained it to them several times, but they keep spreading lies to divert debates. The worst part is that they are double wrong, because even if you assume this flawed logic the stats still show that the game is massively killer-sided (It's true that if you count draws as losses then killers win only ~50% of the time but then survivors win only ~30% of the time, so it's still a ~60% ratio in favor of killer).

  • MrPenguin
    MrPenguin Member Posts: 2,425
    edited July 11

    A draw is not a loss but it's not a win either. It's a draw, it's a "nothing" so to speak as it basically gets cancelled out. But "not a win" and "a loss" are the same if we're talking about "how often do you win" a.k.a. win rate. It's a "no I didn't".

    Afaik and as far as I've seen the devs and the general population talk about it:

    Win: MMR went up
    Loss: MMR went down
    Draw: MMR did not change.

    So while yes you are correct in the sense that a 1K will lower your MMR less, it still went down so that is a loss. Likewise a 3-4K raises it, so that's a win. A draw doesn't change it so it's neither a win nor a loss.

    Similar to other PVP games the win/loss it all determined based of the skill ranking system and what makes you move up or down, which in DBD is only MMR.

    It might be a lesser loss but a loss is still a loss. There's no such thing as a "partial win". You either win, lose, or draw. Up, down, or stationary.

    You're using a different definition of what a win/loss/draw is. At least afaik. While under your definition that checks out, that's not the definition being used by the game and most of it's community.

    As for the last part about ratios yeah that's true. But "balanced" for survivor and killer are fundamentally different when only counting kills and escapes so I don't think there's a way to really make both 50% without some mechanic forcing it. Besides that the devs also want the kill rate to favor killers a bit so unless you change their mind that's just how it is.

    Imo balancing around hooks instead of kills would be better in that regard (amongst others) as you could balance around a certain hook count which is more flexible, but that's not the system we're in unfortunately.

    Post edited by MrPenguin on
  • Saiph
    Saiph Member Posts: 317

    I'm not going to write an essay again.

    Survivors die 60% of the time.

    If you seriously believe that you can conclude from that number, that the game is balanced, or that killers win only ~50% of the time, this is not math, but dishonesty.

  • MrPenguin
    MrPenguin Member Posts: 2,425
    edited July 11

    The game is asymm it's not that simple.

    Besides that no I personally wouldn't consider that balanced, but I'm not the one making the rules and neither are you. I wouldn't even balance off kills, I would balance off hooks.

    Under the goals and vision the devs want, 60% is balanced. Theirs is the mind you have to change. I'm just working under the system we're in.

  • Saiph
    Saiph Member Posts: 317

    The devs have not said that 60% is balanced, they said that they target 60%, which is different. By definition, 60% is not balanced, it is in killer's favor, and I'm pretty sure the devs have said exactly that somewhere (that they intentionally want the game to be in killer's favor).

    I'm not arguing whether that 60% target is right or wrong. What I'm saying, is stop massacring math to pretend killers somehow have 50% winrate or other nonsense.

  • MrPenguin
    MrPenguin Member Posts: 2,425
    edited July 11

    Fair enough. It's more accurate to say they want a 60% kill rate and balance around that.

    My main argument is kill rate is not win rate as the designers and game have defined it. Not by some "sports logic", alternate personal definitions, or something else.

    The definition of "win rate" is pretty important to determining what's considered "massacring" the numbers to change it. I would argue changing the definition to count losses and draws as "partial wins" when they're not does the amount of damage you're accusing. As you're inflating the win rate by a significant amount.

    Idk if killers have a 50% win rate, afaik the kill distribution and win rate was never released. We just know that kill rate averages out to roughly 60%.

    Under the 3K+ is a win logic the kill rate needs to be over 50% for the killer to win (not draw or lose) roughly half the time. Under this logic you can't really have both sides be at 50%. The "draw" condition on killer and both sides having different win conditions skews the numbers.

    If the logic was different then sure. Under your theoretical system sure. But that's not the system we're in nor the logic this game uses.

  • TheSubstitute
    TheSubstitute Member Posts: 2,436
    edited July 11

    Are you of the impression there are only 2 survivors in a trial? That's the only way your comment would make sense. Also, do you think it's wise gameplay to just leave survivors on gens untouched and not disrupt them?

  • TheRealConsent
    TheRealConsent Member Posts: 217

    Lich is still a new killer, it will settle. Every killer starts their release with massive kill rates.

    Also, lmao, you're sad. Survivors leave games that feel like losses? Sounds like a whole bunch of womp womp to be fair. Imagine if killers did the same anywhere near as much as survivors did. "Oh, these guys brought BNPs and did 2 gens during my first 1-2 chases, time to DC."

    You literally admitted to the fact that survivors are whiny and selfish, as they will leave the moment they feel unwell about the course of the game.

    You said, and I quote:

    Survivors DC on a frequent basis, so this will have a huge impact on survival rates. But why do they DC? Survivors primarily DC because they will most likely lose the match, because the killer is winning, because killer is so overpowered. Most players, including survivors, will finish a match if there is a good chance of winning. This is just human nature.

    So, literally, you're implying that survivors will tend to not finish matches they don't think they can win.

    And you're bold enough to make a suggestion so the game is shifted in your favor, even though you've shown yourself to be whiny?

  • Langweilg
    Langweilg Member Posts: 812
    edited July 11

    The stun time would suck, but I want old heals back (old medkits, old COH,12s heal).

    I hate to lock at bars filling up for ages.