mimzy630

Honest question, why don't you all just warn creators partnered with BHVR through The Fog program not to spread information about leaks? YouTubers and Twitch streamers endorsed directly by BHVR are ironically the main source of information for many.

My apologies. You are rather busy, and this would be an annoying task. I won't ask any further of you, though I will say that I would not have mentioned you if I hadn't already checked the dev streams in question. As far as I can tell, you edited the Shrine of Secrets page to include the "3 weeks" line on July 18th, 2018.…

I think you misunderstand. By looking at perk trends over time, over 460 perks, there has been a significant underrepresentation of paid perks. This is, of course, within the realm of probability, but a -6.7% correlation after 460 trials usually tends to denote a trend, not randomness. If the Shrine was random, then it…

That's valid. I don't really need BBQ on the Shrine, $2.49 on a sale is way cheap, but it's not really about that anymore.

Yeah, if I go ahead and take into account some.new findings, the overall wouldn't change that much but it would continue to widen. I agree, BBQ was more of an afterthought due to it being popular and a well-known.nomaly.

Harsh arguments, but ones I should address. BBQ itself does seem to be confirmation bias. If I did a more in-depth analysis on paid perks as a whole, then maybe I could prove something- Oh right, I did. Still, I can see how BHVR could mess up a simple formula. All the more reason to publicize it, to quell doubts and foster…

Yeah, I'm hoping it is random, just unfortunate for us. I wouldn't mind this. However, considering all the other things they've been breaking and their hasty change of Shrine generation (?) or at least Shrine updating to cover the "change date" exploit people were using to access any shrine way back when (believe me, if I…

I don't think my justification for BBQ is as strong, so I put it at the bottom. If it dips below 1%, then I think it will be truly significant. Based on this feedback, I might go more in-depth about other outliers seen in the Shrine, and whether there's any correlation with them being meta and/or paid. However, the general…

I should probably have written it all out instead of using shorthand. It's much better to calculate not based on the probability of something happening, but of it not happening. You can't merely add two probabilities together ((1/27)+(1/26) would be incorrect). Rather, take the probability of no BBQ for two trials…

All of Bill's perks were removed from the Shrine of Secrets pool because they are are base free on consoles. It would be odd to have different shrines for different platforms, so upon Freddy patch, they were taken out of the Shrine. I... Well, you could say BBQ is a conspiracy, but literally comparing every perk that has…

If it is random, then what a timeline we occupy. Very anomalyous indeed.

Err, well, the data suggests that it is not completely random, which would at least be fair. Instead, it seems to be neither fair in perk occurrence nor in randomness, with the latter being BHVR's promise.

A very good response. I'd love a source on successive weeks- I suppose I wasn't looking for that in the trend, and thought it to be chance. I'm also unsure about perks from the save character, though that happened often early on. I wish I had the formula or some more details to check. In my math, I assume two chances for…

Are you sure? The soonest I saw was the week after a DLC was released. Beyond that, I've seen many 2, 3, 4, and 5 weeks after. I could count them if you like, but I'm not so sure this is the case. Do you have a source for this? I'd love to update my data if so. I'm very glad someone else is looking into it, and I'd love to…

Still, most paid perks have been on the Shrine. I'm not totally sure it's a conspiracy, even after running the numbers myself. Not even thinking about the amount of DLC or that it's possibly DLC perks are meant to be good to force buying them (if this is true, BHVR needs to step up their game lol). I'd like nothing more…

I mean, that would be nice, but I'm not asking for even that much. The only fairness I seek is in randomness.

This is probably the best argument against the theory. You're very right, though I would add that Shrine was made to appease us, so rigging isn't out of the question. Still, while 460 trials seems to be enough to be significant, it could still be an outlier. Especially because, well, -6.7% is pretty slim, though with perks…

That would be nice, but I'm alright with the Shrine being fully random, so long as it truly is. That would be consistent with what they are saying, which is adequate to me.

Err, I appreciate the sentiment, but I'd rather random "fair" than a fixed "fair" (i.e., force BBQ on Shrine yearly isn't random).

I fear this is the case. If so, it's rather nefarious.

I, well, duh. I state that clearly. I know that. My argument for BBQ can be explained as a an outlier. The overall trend, however, cannot.

In my experience, RNG doesn't yield a durable negative trend.

Very true. Randomness does not mean "fair" in the sense of equality. By fair, in this context, I do equate them- I think, if random chance dictates, never seeing BBQ on the Shrine again is fair. I do not assume that perks will appear in a roughly equal manner. Thank you for your feedback! That is an important distinction…

Huh? BHVR's official statement is that the Shrine fo Secrets is completely random. I don't know usage numbers, so I can't run the numbers there, but if this is the case then their statements are still false.

Huh? Did you read it? I go Period by Period, analyzing each one with the number of teachable perks in it and the chance for that specific amount of time to have teachable perks. I know perks that have been there longer will have a higher frequency. Duh. Please, go over the numbers again. I made very sure to keep all the…

Did I mess up horribly? I'm not discounting that, but still, it shouldn't change the overall trend. Please, I encourage you to tell me how misguided I am.

I don't see no auto-rejoin SWF lobbies. Reinviting after every game is dumb and tedious.

Awww mannn, they're already doing the legwork for it... A few extra lines of code and a text box for 100% another game transitions.